Caliphs of the Shadows: The Islamic State’s Leaders Post-Mawla

Abstract: This article explores what is known regarding the Islamic State’s leaders since the killing of the group’s second caliph Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi (conventionally dubbed “al-Mawla” for shorthand) in February 2022. In contrast with the group’s first caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the organization has publicized little information on his successors, who have released no audio messages of their own. Despite the fact that the group’s caliphs are now very much ‘men of the shadows,’ there is little evidence pointing to the prospect of the group’s fragmentation in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere around the world, with the group’s affiliates seemingly willing to accept successor caliphs about whom little or nothing is publicly known.

Calibrated Counterterrorism: Actively Suppressing International Terrorism

Abstract: Terrorism may no longer be at the top of most Americans’ minds, but the U.S. counterterrorism (CT) community remains dedicated to protecting the United States, our people, and our allies from terrorist violence. To succeed in this still-critical mission, our CT practitioners will need to retain the agility, expertise, and tools to detect, warn of, and disrupt global terrorist threats as terrorist tactics and tradecraft evolve. Our CT architecture will need to remain nimble enough to quickly identify new threats and overcome enduring challenges that might allow space for terrorists to advance attacks.

La troisième guerre mondiale approche

La guerre en Ukraine connaît-elle ses dernières convulsions avant que l’armée ukrainienne ne soit anéantie par la puissance de feu russe ? Le parti d’opposition à la guerre en Ukraine aux États-Unis, désormais incarné par Tucker Carlson et son nouveau copain Victor Orban de Hongrie, les Trumpistes et certains médias alternatifs, Scott Ritter etc. tous chantent la fin de la guerre en Ukraine est là, les Ukrainiens portent un toast, les Russes ne peuvent pas être vaincus. Les Ukrainiens n’ont même pas traversé la «zone de déformation», ils n’ont même pas atteint la première ligne de défense russe, etc.

How One of the Deadliest Years for Migrants Will Impact European Politics

  • This year has marked both a sharp increase in migrants attempting to reach Europe, as well as one of the deadliest on record, with thousands dying in the Mediterranean from overcrowded boats capsizing or sinking.
  • War and conflict, food insecurity, political and economic instability, and poverty – all of which are exacerbated by climate change – are among the primary drivers leading migrants to attempt the perilous journey to Europe.
  • Tighter border restrictions and diminished regular pathways have increased the demand – and profits – for smugglers and human traffickers, generating millions of euros a year for organized criminal networks, according to the European Coast Guard and Border Agency.
  • The increase in migrant arrivals via the Mediterranean route has recentered and amplified a fixture of European politics, providing considerable leverage for renewed autocracies like Tunisia and bolstering far-right narratives and policies.

After the Death of Prigozhin, What is the Future of the Wagner Group?

  • Just yesterday, Russian authorities officially confirmed the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the infamous leader of the Wagner Group, who was killed in a plane crash over Russia last week, along with several other high-ranking leaders of the mercenary group.
  • Prigozhin was killed two months to the day of the coup, and amidst a flurry of other activity related to Russia’s military posture and force structure.
  • The next Wagner leader will likely be far less visible, less abrasive, and more under the radar compared with Prigozhin, whose torrent of abuse aimed at high-ranking Russian military officials was taking its toll within the Kremlin.
  • The future of Wagner seems to be in Africa, where its expeditionary operations and focus on providing muscle in exchange for access to resources is a much better fit for its expertise.

Sahel: les invisibles liaisons dangereuses.

Tout juste dix ans après le sauvetage du gouvernement du Mali par l’opération militaire française Serval, devenue Barkhane quelques mois plus tard, la situation sécuritaire dans ce pays est structurellement plus fragile qu’en 2013. Au-delà du Mali, elle reste très sérieusement menacée à travers tout le Sahel et jusqu’aux pourtours du lac Tchad et des golfes du Benin et de Guinée. Pourquoi, malgré les immenses ressources humaines et matérielles, tant internationales qu’internes, mises en œuvre, cette détérioration sécuritaire continue ?

Sahel : terrorisme et présence Russe.

Les attaques terroristes contre le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger se poursuivent de plus belle. Dans les trois pays, les événements violents ont augmenté de 36%, l’année écoulée, avec 2 737 graves incidents. Les deux premiers états font désormais confiance à leur coopération avec la Fédération de la Russie pour venir à bout du fléau. Ils ont accordé des concessions minières à Moscou, en guise de contrepartie partielle à l‘assistance militaire. Le rapprochement entre Ouagadougou et Bamako arrange les deux juntes, mais complique la lutte contre le terrorisme dans la sous-région, déjà mise à mal à la suite du départ du Mali du G5 Sahel. En revanche, le Niger continue sa coopération avec la France, dans ce difficile combat. Le sommet du G Sahel prévu la semaine prochaine à Ndjamena, sans le Mali, devrait être un bon indicateur du futur de cette organisation aux grands potentiels.

Sahel : mines d’or et terrorisme

Depuis plus d’une décennie, l’exploitation aurifère, légale ou illégale et officielle ou informelle, connait une foudroyante expansion à travers tout le Sahel. Ses acteurs sont nombreux et vont des multinationales canadiennes et russes aux petits opérateurs informels locaux. Les revenus financiers et surtout les emplois créés, même très dangereux, sont considérables pour tous : sociétés privées, gouvernements et petits exploitants ainsi que leurs fournisseurs d’équipements, généralement du Moyen orient.

Italy’s cautious approach towards Niger’s political crisis

In light of Niger’s recent military coup, which removed President Mohamed Bazoum from power, the risk of the crisis breaking out into a wider regional conflict must be considered.

On 26 August, Niger’s military regime responded to the threat of an attack by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by ordering Nigerien forces to be on maximum alert.

A Wake-Up Call For Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti – OpEd

Prime Minister Kurti was elected on the premise that he would attend to Kosovo’s socio-economic malaise, lift its people from the ashes of the war, give them hope, and restore their dignity. Sadly, more than two years later, Kurti has little to show for his promises.