La «géométrie variable» de Blinken pour une nouvelle guerre froide

La semaine dernière, le secrétaire d’État Blinken, dans un discours prononcé à l’université Johns Hopkins, a déclaré sans ambages :

«Ce à quoi nous sommes confrontés n’est pas un test de l’ordre de l’après-guerre froide. Les pays et les citoyens perdent confiance dans l’ordre économique international – leur confiance est ébranlée par des failles systémiques… Plus ces disparités persistent, plus elles alimentent la méfiance et la désillusion des gens, qui ont le sentiment que le système ne leur donne pas une chance équitable».

India-Middle East-Europe corridor: How feasible is it?

While Türkiye has announced the project cannot happen without its cooperation, experts also warn the new Western-led project could entail a number of logistical issues and comes amid escalating tensions between the US and China..

On September 9, amid the G20 leaders’ summit hosted in India, the US, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, Germany, Italy, and the EU signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to construct an economic rail and shipping corridor linking Europe, the Middle East and India.

IntelBrief: Jihadist Groups Threaten to Destabilize the Sahel and Coastal West Africa

As terrorist groups continue destabilizing the Sahel region in sub-Saharan Africa, violence has spilled over into coastal West African states previously unaffected, including Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo, and Ghana.

The Wagner Group is active in several sub-Saharan countries, where its role as a guarantor of regime security has granted it outsized access to and influence within the region.

IntelBrief: Tensions Along Lebanese Border a Microcosm of Regional Flashpoints

Tensions continue to rise along the Lebanese border, centered around the town of Ghajar, a disputed area that straddles Lebanon and Syrian territory captured and occupied by Israel in 1967.

What seems to be unfolding as a controlled escalation, deterring all sides from a more intense conflagration, could give way to all-out conflict, a situation most of the belligerents would like to avoid.

IntelBrief: Iranian Drones Empower Hezbollah and Other Allies

Iran is equipping its regional allies with sophisticated armed unmanned aerial systems (UAS) – drones – to help them project power on Tehran’s behalf against shared adversaries.

In June and July, Lebanese Hezbollah used Iran-supplied aerial surveillance drones to signal its opposition to Israel’s development of offshore natural gas fields in disputed waters.

IntelBrief: Islamic State Khorasan Remains a Stubborn Threat in Afghanistan

General Michael Kurilla, head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), has suggested that at its current trajectory, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) would be able to conduct external operations within approximately six months.

Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, counterterrorism analysts have warned about the growing threat of ISK, especially in light of the U.S. troop withdrawal and limited human intelligence assets in areas where ISK and other terrorist groups operate.

Africa: Carving the Golden Goose

Africa today consists of 56 different experiences in nation-building with some remarkable successes and many inevitable failures. In many African countries a new player has entered the game: a younger generation that is better educated, more ambitious and, at the same time, less gullible than its ancestors in the 19th century who looked away while imperial powers carved the golden goose.

President Joe Biden: Stop the Second Armenian Genocide

After besieging and starving 120,000 Armenians of the South Caucasus Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) since December 2022, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against Artsakh on September 19, subjecting the capital Stepanakert and other cities and villages to intensive fire using heavy artillery and drones.

Korybko To Dutch Media: The End Of The Karabakh Conflict Will Revolutionize The Region

Here’s the full text of the written interview that I gave to Dutch journalist Laura Oorschot, who incorporated some of the insight during her appearance on blckbx’s livestream on this subject on 22 September.

  1. How would you describe Pashinyan’s political position at present?

Pashinyan is in a very difficult position after this week’s events since many among the population consider him a traitor to their national cause, which they regard as extending into Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Region. He came to power in what can be described as a Color Revolution that he fueled through a combination of nationalist and liberal rhetoric. The 2020 conflict and the latest one discredited his nationalist credentials, while his orders to break up protests after both discredit his liberal ones.