Pakistan’s interim government: A challenging road ahead

Pakistan’s 76th Independence Day, on Aug. 14, was marked by an undercurrent of challenges. The 16-month rule of the 13-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government concluded, making way for a new technocratic caretaker administration tasked with overseeing upcoming general elections. However, this power transition is not as straightforward as it seems. The appointment of the new caretaker government has created uncertainty, raising doubts about whether Pakistan will smoothly transition to another democratic government or if the caretaker setup will exceed its constitutional mandate.

After Prigozhin: The future of Wagner and Russian gray zone activities in MENA

On Aug. 23, an Embraer Legacy-600 business jet exploded over Russia’s Tver Oblast. The crash resulted in the deaths of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, co-founder Dmitry Utkin, and logistics head Valery Chekalov. While predictions of Prigozhin’s impending demise were widespread after he launched an abortive mutiny against Russia’s military leadership on June 23, his death — and the dramatic way in which it came about — sent renewed shockwaves across the world and plunged the Wagner private military company’s (PMC) global influence operations into a state of uncertainty.

Iran, Russia, and the Caspian environmental crisis: A need for collaboration

The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is steadily shrinking. Water levels reached a critical low in 2022 and continue to fall by 6-7 centimeters per year, with some projections suggesting it could drop by as much as 9-18 meters by the end of the century. Although the five littoral states — Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — have a history of making efforts to maintain it, the unique environment of the Caspian basin has been in decline in recent years.

Syrie : L’agression internationale est repartie comme en 2011

De la faillite programmée des États arabes et des illusions du fédéralisme

Bien avant les dernières années de braises, nous n’avons cessé d’attirer l’attention sur les écrits de Zbigniew Brzeziński, Condoleezza Rice, Bernard Lewis et de plusieurs autres auteurs du même bord. Des écrits qui se résument à dire que les États de la région arabe sont sur le chemin de la faillite et de l’effondrement, soit sous le poids de la corruption et de la tyrannie, soit sous la pression des ingérences étrangères, et que le mieux serait de programmer des déflagrations sociales qui mèneraient à leur démembrement sur une base confessionnelle ou doctrinaire, de telle sorte que nul ne pourrait en hériter ou reconstruire sur leurs décombres des alternatives nationales, patriotes et démocratiques.

After an uprising and violent crackdown, Syria’s Deir ez-Zor is at a critical juncture

On Sept. 8, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key U.S. ally, announced the end of its “Operation Security Enhancement” in Deir ez-Zor in northeast Syria. While framed as an operation targeting ISIS sleeper cells and criminals, it aimed at quashing an armed uprising led by Arab tribesmen, particularly members of the Akidat tribe. Clashes first erupted following the SDF’s arrest of Ahmed al-Khubayl (“Abu Khawla”), the commander of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council, on Aug. 27 and were led mainly by his close allies and fellow tribesmen. The rebellion grew in the following days as other tribes joined in, including those that had poor relations with Abu Khawla and had pushed for his removal for years. While multiple factors may have contributed to fueling the uprising, the importance of the region’s longstanding grievances cannot be overstated.

Erdogan links Cyprus peace talks to Turkish Cypriot status recognition

The Turkish leader doubled down on Turkey’s support to Cyprus, while EU officials said that renewed talks about the island must be based on UN resolutions.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan redoubled his calls to the international community on Thursday to recognize the Turkish Cypriot state, saying that no new talks on the divided island could happen without recognizing the equal status of Turkish Cypriots.

Explainer: Why Iraq’s Kirkuk has reached brink of conflict

Tensions flare up in Kirkuk ahead of provincial elections in December amid Arab and Turkmen fears of renewed Kurdish control of the oil-rich city.

Plagued by the oil curse and long disputed between its ethnic communities, the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk is once again teetering on the edge of civil war, with local elections just three months away.

Russia Sanctions: Opportunity For Turkey – OpEd

Recently, Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin met in Sochi.

In the statement made by the Kremlin just before the Wagner rebellion in June, it was stated that Erdogan invited Putin to Türkiye and that preparations were being made. But the meeting was held in Russia, not in Türkiye as expected. The focus of the meeting was the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement.

Nagorno-Karabakh Receives First Aid In Months, But Route To Armenia Remains Closed

A Russian Red Cross truck carrying humanitarian aid entered Nagorno-Karabakh from the Azerbaijani city of Aghdam on September 12.

It was the first delivery of supplies to the territory in nearly three months, since Azerbaijan shut down all traffic on the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting the Armenian-populated region to the Republic of Armenia.

The Fallout in Chad from the Fighting in Darfur

War in Sudan’s Darfur region has triggered a refugee crisis in eastern Chad and raised concerns that turmoil could spread. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco draws upon research at the Chad-Sudan border to explain the challenges facing N’Djamena.