Signs Of Possible War In September-October

Lately there have been growing indications that a war against Israel may break out in September or October 2023. The trigger may be spiraling violent clashes resulting in many casualties, or the use of new weapons leading to many fatalities on the Israeli side, in the face of which Israel will be unable to suffice with its regular counterterrorism measures.[1] While neither Hamas nor Hizbullah are eager to start a comprehensive confrontation with Israel,[2] such a confrontation could result from an uncontrolled deterioration on the ground[3] or from the use of new and unusually deadly weapons by these movements.

De ce spionii israelienii n-au anticipat atacul palestinian

De ce spionii israelienii n-au anticipat atacul palestinian declanșat de organizația Hamas
Serviciile secrete israeliene, incluzând aici Shin Bet – departamentul de informații intern, Mossad – agenția sa de spionaj extern, precum și toate activele Forțelor de Apărare (IDF), nu au reușit să anticipeze atacul coordonat lansat de Hamas sâmbătă dimineața, în ceea ce echivalează cu un eșec major pentru Israel, cred analiștii. Aceasta deși statul evreu are unul dintre cele mai extinse și sofisticate rețele de informații din Orientul Mijlociu, cu informatori ce activează în interiorul grupărilor militante din teritoriile palestiniene și în Liban și Siria. Unele voci au comparat eșecul spionilor israelieni cu cel al serviciilor de securitate americane, care a permis teroriștilor arabi să deturneze patru avioane comerciale și să atace Statele Unite la 11 septembrie 2001, în cel mai grav atentat terorist din istorie.

US jet shoots down Turkish drone in Syria, Pentagon says

The United States on Thursday shot down an armed Turkish drone that was operating near its troops in Syria, the Pentagon said, the first time Washington has brought down an aircraft of NATO ally Turkey.

A Turkish defense ministry official said the drone that was shot down did not belong to the Turkish armed forces, but did not say whose property it was.

Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update

President’s Take: Hot Spots Near and Far

The year 2023 has seen peace and security challenges both far from the EU’s borders and closer to home. The latter, especially, have heightened in recent weeks and months, which have seen fighting in the South Caucasus and Kosovo, even as a second year of war in Ukraine stretches on. While the three crises are very different in nature, all suggest a worrying inclination on the part of some governments to seek solutions to disputes through force of arms. Insofar as this jarring trend involves a proliferation of new wars, large and small, it flies in the face of the decades of energy that the EU has invested in turning the page on past conflagrations in Europe and its neighbourhood. Crisis Group is working on a report about how these conflicts are shaping the emerging European security architecture and how best to minimise the risk of future clashes. In the meantime, however, these three crises demand immediate attention. We have explored all of them in earlier work, but I want to share a few thoughts about recent developments.

Syrian ‘Cham Wings’ and Haftar’s Libyan army are complicit in smuggling of Europe-bound migrants

On 9 June 2023, a boat carrying approximately 750 migrating men, women, and children, left the shores of the city of Tobruk in Eastern Libya, heading to Italy. Most of those on board were Syrians, Egyptians, Pakistanis, and Palestinians. Their voyage and dream of reaching the shores of safety ended tragically on the morning of 14 June, when their boat sank 80 kilometres off the coast of Pylos, Greece.

Tormented Territory: The Emergence of a De Facto Canton in Northwestern Syria

Summary:
Syria’s northwest has been progressively transformed into a de facto canton outside the control of the Syrian state. This is the outcome of a dynamic process that began in 2016 and that mainly reflected the security interests of Türkiye, Russia, Iran, and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This framework, which has been an alternative form of conflict management, has allowed these actors to systematically adjust the canton’s characteristics, a painful process that is ongoing.

US fails to deter Turkey’s bombardment of Syria’s Kurdish enclave

Turkey continued to bomb infrastructure in Syria’s Kurdish-controlled region after a US F-16 shot down a drone that encroached within half a kilometer of a US base.

Turkish drones conducted multiple strikes within a kilometer of a US base in northeast Syria on Thursday, causing US troops to take shelter in bunkers in the hours before an American commander ordered one of the unmanned aircraft to be shot down, the Pentagon said.