Hand on the Trigger: Iranian Proxies Threaten to Escalate the Conflict with Israel

As Israel prepares for a possible full-scale ground incursion into Gaza, there is much speculation over a possible Iranian response, including the potential deployment of its proxy forces to escalate the conflict further.

Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba stand out as the groups most likely to become involved of the nearly 50 other Iraqi Shia militias that operate under Iran’s umbrella.

ICT AS A FACTOR IN THE “ARAB SPRING”

The chain of mass protests that swept through the countries of the Maghreb and the Middle East led not only to the undemocratic replacement of political elites and destabilized the socio-economic situation in the region, but actually became the beginning of the use of a new mechanism for the global redivision of the world. The use of so-called “soft power” as a set of predominantly non-violent measures to achieve political and economic goals with the involvement of large protest masses of the population was called the “Arab Spring”. These events in the Arab region demonstrated to the world community the effect of so-called “controlled chaos” technologies, which have not been fully studied by specialists and require a comprehensive analysis at the intersection of various sciences, from political science to neurophysiology and human psychology. The techniques used in hybrid wars are not based on socio-economic or political problems, but are based on new technologies for turning off the critical consciousness of people and involve the emotional and subconscious spheres of the personality of those being manipulated. It is important to note that mass protests of civilians against the authorities took place in countries with high rates of economic growth, with a poverty level of no more than 20% and a relatively low level of corruption. In the traditional understanding of the term “revolution,” in these countries there were no objective prerequisites for popular anti-government protest. However, the destabilization of the situation occurred almost instantly and led to the overthrow of the existing governments. In these cases, fundamentally new mechanisms were used to control the protest crowd [1]. An important point in the events of the “Arab Spring” was the widespread use of the Internet and various information and communication technologies, which played the role of a driver and system-forming principle for the protest masses.

“CLASSICAL REVOLUTIONS” AND “COLOR REVOLUTIONS”: TYPOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES

To identify the essence of modern “color revolutions”, it is advisable to carry out a typological comparison with the “classical” revolutions of previous historical eras. Comparison can be made based on the following components – goals; publicly articulated ideology; social composition; organization; implementation technologies. Understanding the specifics of revolutions of a new type will allow us to raise the question of finding new effective tools to counter them. One of the main problems of such counteraction today is the use of outdated means against them, the arsenal of which was developed from the experience of past revolutions.

DESTRUCTIVE-ORIENTED NARRATIVES OF NON-TRADITIONAL ISLAM AS A TOOL OF US FOREIGN POLICY

“Terrorism is when the United States installs a dictatorial regime somewhere,

relying on bayonets and using terror against his own people.”

Former CIA employee F. Agee.

Intervention in the internal affairs of foreign states became one of the primary directions of US foreign policy immediately after the end of the Second World War. The key instrument in achieving these goals is an agency with virtually unlimited powers, established in accordance with the National Security Act of 1947, called the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

ETHNICITIES AND ETHNICITY

S. M. Shirokogorov believed that the basis for the classification of ethnic groups are: “firstly, anthropological or somatic signs, i.e., structural features of the body – skeleton and soft parts – and coloring, signs unconsciously recognized by the ethnic group itself; secondly, ethnographic features, i.e., complexes of customs and a general way of life and, finally, thirdly, linguistic features, i.e., the language of the ethnos” (Shirokogorov S.M. Ethnos. p. 37 ) .

MENTAL AND COGNITIVE WARFARE: ISSUES OF DEFINITION, GOALS AND MEANS

The post-Soviet phase of the hybrid war, which began on February 24, 2022, including the “hot” part on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR, revealed to the general public the wretched and uncompromising side of information and psychological operations carried out by the enemy and directed both inward, to control its population, and outside – i.e. on us. After just a few months of operations on the territory of what turned out to be a very well-prepared enemy and the accompanying bitterness of the losses of Russian military personnel and volunteers, it turned out that the conflict exists not only on the ground, but also in our heads. The local population was subjected to the most powerful influence of unconventional psychological and information means, turning “civilians” into neo-Nazi battalions, terbats and fugitive “patriots”. How could we have missed this and how did it work?

ON THE GEOPOLITICS OF TRANSCAUCASIA

The South Caucasus poses a serious problem for Russia. However, like all neighboring countries, with the exception of Belarus. Only with Minsk are relations fundamental and reliable. Everything else is highly problematic.

It’s all about the lack of a clear strategy. Over the past 30 years, Russia has been moving simultaneously in three directions:

THE CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND TRANSPORT ROUTES OF EURASIA

Against the backdrop of another conflict in Palestine, the news that Saudi Arabia suspended negotiations with Israel became the reason for a broader interpretation of events affecting the interests of India, Iran, the EU, Russia and China. Although wars in the Middle East have always affected the whole world, especially the Eurasian region, in a certain way, this case is indeed connected with the plans of a number of states regarding both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

MIDDLE EAST: ESCHATOLOGICAL SCENARIO

Let’s try to describe one of the possible scenarios for further escalation in the Middle East.

The Palestinian uprising begins in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Fatah cannot contain the situation. Seeing how Israel is carrying out full-fledged genocide in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians are launching a total rebellion. The IDF continues to destroy the civilian population of the Gaza Strip. Protests are growing around the world against Western pro-American liberal elites who unanimously stand for Israel. Hezbollah moves in and crowds of Arabs from Jordan break through the border cordons. The United States is launching preventive strikes on Iran, which is increasingly drawn into the conflict, and they are striking Israel. Syria enters the war, attacking the Golan Heights. There is a rapid mobilization of the entire Islamic world.