The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan: How a Delayed Peace With Armenia Endangers a New Regional Order

Few other countries in the past five years have experienced as great a shift in fortune as Azerbaijan. As recently as 2020, the small, oil- and natural-gas-rich country was mired in a decades-long conflict with neighboring Armenia and lacked full control of its territory. For years, the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous area with an ethnic Armenian population within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders, had been governed by a self-declared authority backed by Armenia. The unresolved status of the conflict left Azerbaijan diplomatically constrained and limited outside engagement with the country. It also made the nation strategically dependent—particularly on Russia, which cast itself as the region’s indispensable arbiter and used the stalemate to keep Armenia reliant on its security guarantees while maintaining leverage over Azerbaijan.