Can we stop things falling apart? 2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it.
Since 2011, conflict between the government of Syrian President Bashar al Asad and opposition forces seeking his removal has displaced roughly half of the country’s population and killed over half a million people. Five countries operate in or maintain military forces in Syria: Russia, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Israel, and the United States.
In an article in the respected British journal, The Economist Pakistan’s ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan has expressed doubt about the fairness of the forthcoming General Elections scheduled to be held in January 2024. In his words, Imran Khan is now in jail on charges of exposing state secrets by reading out in the Pakistan National Assembly a secret telegram sent by the Pakistani ambassador to Washington which accused the US government of conspiring with the Pakistani military authority to oust Imran Khan from his post as Prime Minister.
On New Year’s Eve, US Navy helicopters in the Red Sea engaged and sank three boats belonging to Yemen’s Houthis, killing ten. According to US Central Command, the boats were attacking a container ship and fired on the helicopters as they responded to the ship’s distress call. The encounter represents a significant escalation that risks forcing a whole new war on the American public and the Middle East.
If Hamas were about to be destroyed, Nasrallah might feel that Hezbollah could be the next target, and move to launch a full-scale pre-emptive attack on Israel.
In his much-trumpeted speech on November 3, Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, predictably praised Hamas’s October 7 invasion of Israel, the subsequent massacre of 1,200 people and the abduction of some 240 hostages. He was at pains to emphasize, however, that it had been a purely Palestinian enterprise.
This week, two activists are facing trial under the UK’s Terror Act for the “crime” of holding a flag at a demonstration. But this wasn’t a Palestinian flag, which former Home Secretary Suella Braverman has said could be a criminal offence. It was Kurdish.
Observers might expect that the exacerbation of long-running Iranian-Pakistani tensions would be against Islamabad’s interests, just like they might think the same about closer Indian-Iranian relations in the aftermath of this unprecedented tit-for-tat against designated terrorists in Balochistan. In reality, the Pakistani Establishment – which refers to the country’s powerful military-intelligence structures that call the shots behind the scenes – stands to benefit from this crisis.
On January 16, 2024, the Yemeni Houthi Ansar Allah movement claimed responsibility for an attack involving “appropriate missiles” against the Greek vessel Zografia, which was “heading to the ports of occupied Palestine.” This took place only one day after the Houthis carried out a similar attack against an American vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
The IRGC bombarded bases belonging to the Jaish ul-Adl terrorist militia group in a remote area of Pakistan on Tuesday, with the strikes coming less than 24 hours after separate Iranian attacks on jihadist and Mossad targets in Syria and Iraq. Sputnik asked veteran political analyst Mohammad Marandi about the Pakistan strikes’ implications.
On Tuesday, Iran used missiles and drones to strike western Pakistan near Koh-e-Sabz. On Thursday, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in southeastern Iran near Saravan, then released a statement claiming that “Iran is a brotherly country.”
More than a sibling squabble is going on here. Iran and Pakistan were apparently targeting hideouts of armed non-state actors—Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, and the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front in Iran—that each country accuses the other of harboring. Will the tit-for-tat strikes escalate? How does this flashpoint fit in with ongoing conflicts involving Iranian proxies in Yemen and Gaza? Below, experts from our Atlantic Council family share their insights.