ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in December 2023

Following is the December 2023 installment of “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency,” a monthly chronicle of attacks by the terrorist group ISIS in central Syria. A review of developments throughout 2022 and 2021 can be found here and here. The January 2023 edition of ISIS Redux can be found here, February’s here, March’s here, April’s here, May’s here, June’s here, July’s here, August’s here, September’s here, October’s here, and November’s here. A full background and analysis of ISIS’s resurgence in Syria, including the methodology used to collect this data, can also be explored here, here, and here.

Iran’s New Best Friends

The Houthis Have Become Key Partners in Tehran’s Quest for Regional Dominance

Since November, the Red Sea has become the site of escalating attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement, the armed group that governs most of Yemen’s population. These assaults, which the Houthi rebels say are designed to pressure Israel to end the war in Gaza, mark the emergence of a new conflict zone in the already volatile Middle East. By effectively closing the sea to cargo ships, the strikes have disrupted global trade and earned the Houthis unprecedented international attention.

How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum/ Iran’s New Best Friends,

How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum

A Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat

Many held high hopes for Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive. Previous Ukrainian successes at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson encouraged expectations that a new effort, reinforced with new Western equipment and training, might rupture Russian defenses on a larger scale and sever the Russian land bridge to Crimea. If it did, the thinking went, the resulting threat to Crimea might persuade Putin to end the war.

Yemeni-Houthi Official Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti: We Are A Moral Movement, That Is Why We Do Not Support The Russian Military Operation In Ukraine, Even Though Russia Supports Us

Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Yemeni-Houthi Ansar Allah Political Bureau said on a January 24, 2024 show on Al-Araby TV (Qatar) on January 24, 2024 that his movement does not support the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. He said that his movement is a “moral movement,” therefore despite the Houthi’s good relations with Russia, the Ukrainian government’s support of the “aggression” against Yemen in 2015, the Ukrainian government being a “coup” government, and its support of the aggression against Gaza, the Houthis distinguish between the Ukrainian people and its government. Al-Bukhaiti continued to say that it is the United States that is responsible for the war in Ukraine, because it has been seeking to expand NATO.

Iraqi MP And Hizbullah Brigades Official Hussain Mouanes: I Am Proud To Be On The U.S. Treasury Sanctions List; I Have Nothing To Hide; U.S. Forces Must Be Expelled From Iraq, They Constitute A Threat

Iraqi MP and Hizbullah Brigades in Iraq (Kata’ib Hizbullah) official Hussain Mouanes discussed on a January 26, 2024 show on Mayadeen TV (Lebanon) a recent announcement that he has been put on the U.S. Treasury sanctions list. He said that he is proud to be on the sanctions list and that he has nothing to hide. Mouanes said that the U.S. forces must be expelled from Iraq “one way or another.” He further said that their presence in Iraq constitutes a threat. On January 22, the U.S. Treasury announced that it has sanctioned three leaders of Katai’b Hizbullah, which it referred to as “one of the IRGC-QF’s [Iranian Revolutionary Guards – Qods Force] main Iran-aligned militias in Iraq.”

Al Qaeda’s Growing Presence in Southern Yemen Is a Threat to the Regional Security Framework

The recent announcement of an assassination of the commander of the Security Belt forces (in South Yemen), Brigadier General Abdul Latif Al-Sayed, by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is yet another reminder that not only have the security and terrorism concerns in South Yemen have not been put to rest, but that growing sectarianism and political battles over the direction and future of this area plays into the hands of the international terrorist organizations. AQAP took credit for the attack, which also killed several other leaders, according to Aden Al Ghad. Yemen security researcher Elisabeth Kendall pointed out that Abdul Latif Al-Sayed had a falling out with Al Qaeda in 2011, and since then had been a repeat target of assassination attempts.

IntelBrief: Are the US and Iran Headed Toward Conflict?

Iran’s actions against commercial shipping and efforts to support its “axis of resistance” allies are increasing the prospects for direct US-Iran armed conflict.

Iran and the United States appear to be inching closer toward open warfare, unintentionally, even as officials on both sides try to avoid a broader armed conflict in the region.

Iran and its regional allies appear to be locked into hardline stances in favor of attacking U.S. and allied interests, and U.S. officials are under pressure to respond forcefully.

China Urges Iran to Halt Houthi Attacks in Red Sea

Latest Developments

China urged Iran to pressure the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to end their attacks against Red Sea commercial shipping, Iranian sources told Reuters in a January 25 report. Beijing also warned that Chinese-Iranian commerce could suffer if Houthi attacks continue, a potentially potent threat since China remains Iran’s largest trading partner. On January 26, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin affirmed that China is “deeply concerned over the recent rapid escalation of tensions in the Red Sea.” He also said that the United Nations Security Council did not “authorize the use of force” against Yemen — an apparent criticism of recent U.S. and allied strikes against the Houthis.

Damascus and its Kurds: America’s Syndrome!

Given that the U.S. presence is vital for the survival of the AANES, the prospect of withdrawal leaves the entire issue uncertain Akil Mahfouz writes in Athr Press.

While the Autonomous Administration and the SDF exert significant control in eastern Syria, the region faces persistent high levels of perceived threats. The presence of the United States, supporting the Autonomous Administration and opposing Turkey, contributes to this tension. There’s an American interest in forming militias from local tribes, potentially serving as a “partial replacement” along the Euphrates line and the Syria-Iraq border. Forecasts suggest a greater likelihood of violence than resolution in eastern Syria, intensifying tensions between the SDF and Arab tribes in the Euphrates line.