An armada of warplanes deployed to the Indo-Pacific by the United Kingdom, France and Germany signals the Europeans’ commitment to reinforce the region in a crisis, even during the challenge posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to security experts.
A year has now passed since the tumultuous U.S. withdrawal from decades of war and occupation in Afghanistan.
With the Taliban functionally in charge, the country faces a deteriorating humanitarian crisis and economic collapse. But instead of taking action to promote stability and reinvigorate the economy, the U.S. has made it worse and penalized innocent, ordinary Afghans.
Taiwan has been the perennial flashpoint between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This has been the case for decades. While each side has consistently pointed to the Three Joint Communiques as the basis of the bilateral US-PRC relationship, the reality has always been that each side had nuanced, if not different, interpretations of these documents, particularly as they pertained to Taiwan.[1] Furthermore, the Shanghai Communique is largely comprised of unilateral statements and declarations that highlight that the two sides held differing opinions on key issues. Additionally, the US also had the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances as relevant framing documents. Despite the incongruous frames of reference (or at least the incongruous interpretations thereof), both sides have historically admonished the other to not change the status quo over Taiwan. On the heels of what many are now referring to as the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis, we have to wonder what status quo even means 50 years after the original Shanghai Communique.[2]
Ayman al-Zawahiri is dead – or so we are told. Al-Qaida’s chief and successor to the slain Osama bin Laden, he was deemed the chief ideologue and mastermind behind the audacious September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. On July 31, he was supposedly killed in a drone strike in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, while standing on his balcony.
The recent assassination of Al-Qaeda’s Ayman Al-Zawahiri is likely to create a number of ramifications. Al-Zawahiri was assassinated by two Hellfire R9-X missiles from an MQ9 Reaper drone, that had flown over or originated in a third country, in the heart of Kabul, which the US evacuated from in August last year. Al-Zawahiri had a US $25 million bounty upon his head and had been the “invisible” leader of Al-Qaeda since 2011.
MI5 Director General Ken McCallum’s joint address with the FBI Chief on 6 July saw a welcome rebalancing of the security service’s focus towards nation-state threats. Counterterrorism is an important function, but it was allowed to dominate for two decades while Russia, China and other belligerent states were insufficiently monitored.
As evidence mounts that the Global South is leaning closer to the Russia–China position over Ukraine, the West needs to think hard about how to regain the initiative in the narrative battle.
The Ukraine war has further entrenched and exacerbated the geopolitical rivalry between the West and the Russia–China camp. This new ‘Superpower Plus’ clash leaves the so-called ‘Rest’ in a difficult position, with some countries feeling pressure to choose sides, and others trying to remain neutral. Worryingly, many are leaning closer to the Russia–China position than the West.
The killing of longtime al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri could accelerate a trend that has been consistently emerging in recent years—the factionalization and regionalization of the global jihadist movement.
One year after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, fighting has decreased considerably. Yet serious security problems remain, not least the foreign militants still in the country. External actors should press the new authorities to fulfil their commitments and avoid any steps that could reignite large-scale violence.
The [Harvard Belfer Center] report, “The Great Economic Rivalry: China Vs. the US,” predicts that at the current rate China will overtake the US economically within a decade.
When it comes to trade, China has now displaced the US. “When this century began, China was knocking on the door of the WTO and the U.S. was the leading trading partner of most major economies. Today, China has overtaken the U.S. to become the largest trading partner for nearly every major nation… by 2018, 130 countries traded more with China than they did with the U.S…..” — The Belfer Report.