South East Asia

SOS: Is The Pentagon Losing the U.S. to China?

“We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion.” — Nicolas Chaillan, former first Chief Software Officer for the Air Force, who resigned in protest over the Pentagon’s slow pace of technological development, citing China’s fast advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and general capabilities in cybersecurity, Financial Times, October 10, 2021

Russia-Ukraine War To Change Central Asia’s Trade And Transition – Analysis

The Russia-Ukraine war is upending global supply chains.

In the case of Central Asia (the five republics plus Afghanistan) this impact reinforces the need for redundant transport routes and options for the landlocked states of Central Asia. These states still rely on Soviet-era transport links that connect them to markets. This remains true even though during the three decades since independence in 1991 have seen new roads, railways, and pipeline put in place, many funded by China.

Egypt and India: Time to rebuild relations

Asia is undergoing a world-historical geopolitical transformation. The rise of the Indo-Pacific as a coherent geoeconomic and geopolitical system coincides with the rise of what this author has previously termed the “Indo-Abrahamic,” an emerging transregional order connecting India to West Asia and the eastern Mediterranean. Until now, the geographic vastness of Asia and the legacy of “divide-and-conquer” colonialism have kept the continent politically and economically fragmented. By reshaping their bilateral relations, Cairo and New Delhi can seize the strategic opportunity to link the Indo-Abrahamic with the Indo-Pacific, thus realizing this envisioned West Asian system.

Beyond Summits, Quad Must Deliver Quickly – Analysis

The second in-person summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, in Japan managed to generate a lot of buzz. While the global media covered it in its usual breathless manner, China also ensured that the event retained its edge as its warplanes joined the Russians to approach Japanese airspace. It was a calibrated show of force to make a point when Tokyo was hosting leaders from the United States (US), Australia, and India. Chinese and Russian fighter jets carrying out joint flights over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea would have made headlines in any case, but the fact that Beijing and Moscow decided to make this a show of force at a time when the leaders of Quad were meeting was a determined effort to make their presence felt.

The Danger of Worsening Relations With Both Russia and China

Q: “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”  (CBS News)

A: “Yes.” (President Joe Biden, May 23, 2022)

Q: “ You are?” (CBS)

A: “That’s the commitment we made.” (President Biden)

Once again, an unplanned and impromptu remark from President Biden has generated controversy, although this represents his third (incorrect) reference to a commitment to defend Taiwan. Each time, Biden’s national security team has tried to walk back the president’s remarks, but the fact of the matter is that the United States is pursuing a policy of confrontation and containment with China. There has been no attempt to pursue a diplomatic solution to our differences with China or to give Chinese leader Xi Jinping reason to believe that Sino-American relations could be improved through pursuit of a serious diplomatic dialogue.

National Security Crisis: Russia’s and China’s Nuclear Threats

Russia has not only been modernizing its nuclear triad; it has also been developing new types of nuclear systems….

Russia, of course, is not the only nuclear threat to the United States. China has accelerated its nuclear buildup to the extent that Admiral Charles Richard, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee last April, “For the first time in our history, the nation is on a trajectory to face two nuclear-capable, strategic peer adversaries at the same time, who must be deterred differently. We can no longer assume the risk of strategic deterrence failure in conflict will always remain low.”