Rusia

One of the biggest geopolitical questions raised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is whether it will transform European defense.

How should one think about the future of the global order and international organizations against the backdrop of Russia’s war on Ukraine? The war has highlighted the limitations of multilateral security institutions at both the global and European levels, as Moscow has blocked or ignored calls from the United Nations and other bodies to cease the hostilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in an unenviable position. His country has the resources to inflict damage on Ukraine in perpetuity. But because the first phase of the war has been so costly for Russia and because Ukraine’s military is mounting such stiff resistance, Russia faces serious difficulty achieving anything meaningful on the battlefield without committing much more manpower than it currently has available.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted one of the world’s largest cooperation efforts in recent history. The West donated a lot of financial and military aid to help Ukraine with its defensive efforts against Russia. Just recently, Lithuanian citizens have come together and donated whatever money they could to help buy Ukraine a Bayraktar TB2 drone, a UAV that has been instrumental in their war against Russia.

What Russia’s War Means for Armenia and Azerbaijan

As the ripples of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pulse outward, they have left one region especially volatile: the South Caucasus. The Ukrainian conflict has paradoxically raised the likelihood of both further fighting and a negotiated peace in this area between the Caspian and Black Seas. The region was the site of a brutal war in 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh—an Armenian-populated enclave within Azerbaijan—and adjacent regions. The 44-day war left around 7,000 people dead and saw Azerbaijan inflict a crushing defeat on Armenia, reversing territorial losses it had suffered in fighting during the 1990s. The war also left unresolved questions, lingering disputes, and simmering tensions. In March, just as Ukraine used Turkish-made Bayraktar drones to repulse Russian forces, Azerbaijan used the same type of drones to strike Armenian troops in Karabakh.

Knocking ‘Em Out of the Sky Since ’78

I don’t usually like to start my pieces with a video, but I’ll make an exception in this case. The video below is too awesome not to include right away. It shows a Stinger missile doing what Stingers do best; blowing stuff out of the sky. In this instance, a Russian helicopter (which looks to me like a Mi-28 Havoc) was downed over the Ukrainian countryside last March. It had what you call a “good effect on target.”

US President Joe Biden and Speaker of House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi say the Ukraine war will continue “until victory is achieved”, but neither of them has said what might constitute victory.

Which brings us to what the Florentine clerk advised 500 years ago: “Never wound a deadly foe and let him live. Either kill him or turn him into a friend.”

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should give up territory to seal an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war in an address to Western leaders. Ukrainian leader then gave a “polite” response to the former secretary, declining his suggestion.