Rusia

As so often in the past, Lithuania has openly declared what many believe but are unwilling for one reason or another to say. The Lithuanian parliament in a unanimous vote declared Russia to be a terrorist state and its war in Ukraine an act of genocide against the population there, actions for which Russian leaders, including Putin, must stand trial.

He said: “Making concessions failed between 2014 and 2022, ultimately bringing us all the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War.” However, he insisted that this war is not a “copy-paste of any previous wars”, highlighting that every war is special.

President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree allowing residents of two Ukrainian regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, parts of which have been occupied by Russian forces during Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, to obtain Russian citizenship.

Ukraine wasn’t supposed to stand much of a chance in a military conflict with Russia. It was outgunned and outmanned. In the first months of 2022, as the threat of an invasion loomed, the Russian military was expected to quickly and decisively defeat its much weaker neighbor with ease. Many experts were asking not if Russia could win the coming war, but how far its ambitions stretched within and beyond Ukraine.

At least once at every conference about an international security crisis, in the midst of debate, a participant will suddenly lean back and quote Carl von Clausewitz in a booming voice to underscore a tenuous point.

Since its founding, NATO’s key challenge has been ensuring that its members have the military means to fulfill their political commitments to each other. With Finland, which filed its application along with Sweden this week, the Alliance can rest easy: The Nordic nation not only meets the threshold criteria of defense capability for membership, but exceeds it.

As the Russian ruble began its recovery in March from a sanctions-induced collapse following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, Western governments began arguing that the exchange rate shouldn’t be used as an indicator of the effectiveness of their sanctions. The Russian financial system may have withstood the initial shock—but a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) and crippling input shortages, they claimed, would force Moscow to eventually de-escalate as the war entered a grinding phase.

Three months into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the prospects for a decisive Kremlin victory have evaporated. Yet even amid Russia’s battlefield failures, the heroic Ukrainian resistance, and abundant Western military aid, the tide has not completely turned.

Washington Must Ramp Up Support for Vulnerable Partners—Before It’s Too Late

It is too soon to predict how Russia’s brutal, unjustified war against Ukraine will end. But for now, it is clear that the Russian military has shockingly underperformed in the first phase of the war, whereas the Ukrainian military has punched far above its weight. Other revisionist powers contemplating aggression will be looking closely at Russia’s failings to avoid making the same mistakes, and the countries they threaten will be looking to Ukraine’s example for insight into how to fend off a larger, better-equipped adversary.