Rusia

The impact of the war in Ukraine on Russian-Turkish relations and Black Sea security: Three potential scenarios

Russian-Turkish relations are in large part based on the personal chemistry, affinity, and trust between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put these personal ties to the test. While President Erdoğan also maintains a close working relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish-Ukrainian military ties are strong, it has become clear that Erdoğan is not willing to sacrifice relations with Putin for Zelenskyy’s sake. Moreover, Erdoğan’s efforts to mediate between the two leaders have been either rebuffed or ignored by Putin. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. The three scenarios presented below highlight the potential challenges and opportunities that Putin, Erdoğan, and, to a lesser degree, Zelenskyy may face depending on how the conflict plays out, as well as what is at stake for other countries in the Black Sea region.

Can a new EU strategy bring EU and Gulf actors closer together?

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf countries have been on life support for a long time. Ever since an early push for a free trade agreement between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foundered in 2008, few serious efforts have been made to revive the relationship. Instead, the two sides have become experts at talking past each other, blithely skidding from crisis to crisis. Whether it is Iran’s nuclear threat, the Houthis in Yemen, the Libyan civil war, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has often been difficult for the EU and the Gulf to find a joint perspective or a common cause.

Three possible futures for a frozen conflict in Ukraine

Three months into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the prospects for a decisive Kremlin victory have evaporated. Yet even amid Russia’s battlefield failures, the heroic Ukrainian resistance, and abundant Western military aid, the tide has not completely turned.

Conflict Risk Alerts

Ukraine

Russian forces made gains in east and captured last pocket of resistance in Mariupol in south, as Ukrainian forces advanced in north; hostilities could intensify, escalate or spread in coming weeks. Russian forces 23 May began advancing on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk cities from three directions to encircle Ukrainian troops and seize last territories in Luhansk region under Ukrainian control; 31 May took control of large proportion of Severodonetsk city, although Ukrainian forces still retained some areas.

US, UK to deliver advanced longer-range missile systems to Ukraine

US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that Washington will deliver advanced longer-range missile systems HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to the Ukrainian army, as part of yet another $700 million in military aid that the White House announced on May 31. This latest tranche brings the total direct military aid committed by the Biden administration since the beginning of the war three months ago to $4.6 billion.

La Russie dit avoir stoppé l’afflux de “mercenaires” étrangers en Ukraine

La Russie a affirmé jeudi avoir stoppé l’afflux de “mercenaires” étrangers voulant combattre aux côtés de l’armée de Kiev en Ukraine, à force de leur infliger de lourdes pertes ces dernières semaines.
“Depuis début mai, l’afflux de mercenaires étrangers en Ukraine voulant prendre part aux hostilités contre l’armée russe s’est pour ainsi dire tari”, a déclaré le porte-parole du ministère russe de la Défense, Igor Konachenkov.

Zelensky annonce qu’environ 20% du territoire ukrainien est contrôlé par les forces russes

Les forces russes contrôlent actuellement “environ 20%” du territoire ukrainien, soit près de 125.000 km2, a déclaré jeudi le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky, dans une adresse au Parlement luxembourgeois.

“Aujourd’hui, environ 20% de notre territoire est sous contrôle des occupants, (soit) près de 125.000 km2, c’est beaucoup plus que le territoire de tous les pays du Benelux”, a indiqué M. Zelensky, dans un message dont la présidence ukrainienne a envoyé aux journalistes la version originale.

U.S. adds Russian airplane factories to economic blacklist

The United States on Thursday added 71 Russian and Belarusian entities to its trade blacklist including several aircraft factories and shipbuilding and research institutes in its latest effort to deprive the Russian military of U.S. technology and other items.

U.S. agrees to send advanced rockets to Ukraine

Russian troops fought to take complete control of the eastern industrial city of Sievierodonetsk on Wednesday as the United States said it will provide Ukraine with advanced rockets to help it force Moscow to negotiate an end to the war.