The United States (US) has entered into what can be termed as a new Cold War against Russia and China. While this is being put across as a contest between democracy and authoritarianism, people are not buying it. The obvious reason for the US move appears to be a desire to maintain its global primacy against the China challenge.
Russia should not be bludgeoning Israel by taking action against the Jewish Agency. But Israel should likewise not be issuing ultimatums to Russia.
Moscow’s decision to shut down Jewish Agency activities in Russia was just a matter of time, a predictable response to Israel increasingly backing Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Demilitarization and “de-Nazification.” Keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Preventing “genocide” in the Donbas. And now, a land grab, seizing territory with an eye toward incorporation into Russia.
For the Kremlin, there have been various justifications and goals for its invasion of Ukraine, launched five months ago on July 24. For Ukraine, the response has been straightforward: defending its territory. For the West, however, the shifting rationales have required shifting responses, in helping Ukraine both fight the war and find some basis for negotiation.
Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, political analysts and commentators have been looking out for signs of a split within the Russian ruling class that could signal diminishing support for Vladimir Putin’s regime. In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some media reports recounted stories of shock and horror over Putin’s decision to attack a neighboring country. While Russian elites do not form a cohesive entity, certain attributes of the Putin regime ensure that on key political issues they appear as a unified front, despite growing tensions and discontent.
Mega-organizațiile eurasiatice și proiectele lor respective converg acum cu o viteză record, cu un pol global mult înaintea celuilalt. Războiul coridoarelor economice este în plină desfășurare, primul flux de mărfuri din Rusia către India prin intermediul Coridorului internațional de transport nord-sud (INSTC) fiind deja în vigoare.
Putin remains fixed on erasing Ukraine. Ideas for peace talks can’t ignore that.
Russia’s Ukraine war, launched in February along the 350 miles from Belarus to the Black Sea, has largely narrowed these weeks to a 45-mile-wide assault on cities in the Donbas region. This and other signals may suggest that President Vladimir Putin is limiting his war aims and will settle for consolidation of control over four provinces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet this is probably just a short-term change. Putin’s goal is unchanged, and he is prepared to achieve it by degrees. This reality undermines well-meaning suggestions for peace negotiations that are based on beliefs the Kremlin will settle for what it has now.
The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a transitional phase. Early on, Russia failed in its effort to take Kyiv—so Russian President Vladimir Putin scaled back his ambitions and shifted his military’s efforts to the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. As both sides battle it out there, exhaustion and the ability to replenish supplies, weapons, and manpower are becoming more and more critical.
While speculation around the potential demise of Putin’s regime is understandable, it is more helpful to consider the ‘so what’ of who comes next.
Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February, speculation has swirled about the Russian leadership. One common theme is the supposedly shrinking circle of people around Vladimir Putin, his political isolation and elite discontent – or even that there might there be a coup against him. Another is that senior officials are said to be seriously ill – or even dead. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was thought to have had a heart attack, for instance, and Putin has been repeatedly ‘diagnosed’ not just with a bad back, but with a whole range of serious mental and physical illnesses. A third theme is that frustration with failures in the campaign has driven Putin to fire (or ‘purge’) senior officials, first in the security services responsible for laying the ground for the invasion, and then in the military conducting it, including Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov. For some, these are all signs that the Russian ‘ship is beginning to sink’.
As evidence mounts that the Global South is leaning closer to the Russia–China position over Ukraine, the West needs to think hard about how to regain the initiative in the narrative battle.
The Ukraine war has further entrenched and exacerbated the geopolitical rivalry between the West and the Russia–China camp. This new ‘Superpower Plus’ clash leaves the so-called ‘Rest’ in a difficult position, with some countries feeling pressure to choose sides, and others trying to remain neutral. Worryingly, many are leaning closer to the Russia–China position than the West.
Erdogan fails to enlist Russian and Iranian support for a fresh Turkish military operation in Syria, but he remains bent on maintaining the pressure.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan returned without any concrete results from talks with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Tehran, to which he went with a thick dossier of bilateral problems. The many strains in Turkey’s ties with Russia and Iran remain unrelieved, and Erdogan’s quest for a green light for a new military intervention in Syria remains unanswered.