Nine months is enough time to bring a human being to birth, but it is apparently not long enough for Russian President Vladimir Putin to realize the folly of his war against Ukraine. Instead, it is becoming increasingly clear that no meaningful settlement will be possible as long as Putin remains in power. The international community must therefore seek pathways to a lasting peace with a future post-Putin Russia.
Why did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine? The answer to this question really depends on when you’re asking. In the months leading up to the invasion, the Russian dictator focused his ire on NATO and sought to blame rising tensions around Ukraine on the military alliance’s post-Cold War expansion. As his troops crossed the border on February 24, Putin changed tack and declared a crusade against “Ukrainian Nazis.” More recently, he has sought to portray Ukraine as a “terrorist state” while insisting that Russia is in fact fighting against “Satanism.”
What the Country Needs to Hold Out
Since mid-October, Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, taking out the vital organs of the Ukrainian economy. The man newly in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine—General Sergei Surovikin, so ruthless that even his colleagues call him “General Armageddon”—has shown no signs of relenting. Russia has successfully attacked 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with a combination of missiles and Iranian drones. It has bombed energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, 80 percent of residents are without water, according to the city’s mayor. Economists project that Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent in 2022, and the United Nations estimates that nine of ten Ukrainians could be impoverished by Christmas.
Isolated, Paranoid, and Ever More Like the Soviet Dictator
The harsher and more repressive the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin becomes, the more successful the reign of Joseph Stalin appears to ordinary Russians. In the five years leading up to 2021, the number of Russians who agreed that “Stalin was a great leader” doubled from 28 to 56 percent, according to polls carried out by the independent Levada Center; over the same period, the number of those who disagreed with that statement fell from 23 to 14 percent. Since 2015, Stalin has been lionized on national holidays, and discussion of his repression has largely been stifled. Such is the interest in the Soviet dictator that it sometimes seems as if he is competing with Putin. More likely, however, he is simply serving as a helping hand from the distant past, reassuring his modern-day acolyte that he is on the right path.
Elon Musk has some new super fans: Russia, China and the Islamic State.
After the world’s richest man bought Twitter for $44 billion last month, officials and journalists linked to Russia and China — and even some jihadists — urged him to lift restrictions on their use of the platform.
On October 10, Iranian loitering munitions rained over Ukraine’s urban centers, including Kiev. Two weeks later, Israeli forces struck an Iranian drone factory in Syria (Al Arabiya, October 23). This demonstrated how Iran’s drone program is now beyond Iran, both in terms of production and operational impact. Iran has become a drone-exporting nation and Iranian drones are creating new flashpoints in different geopolitical axes.
Ukraine’s recent attack in Crimea on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in port reveals glimpses of how the war with Moscow could develop if Kyiv makes a concerted push to retake the peninsula, naval analysts said.
The early morning drone offensive Oct. 29 also provides lessons for the U.S. Navy and its allies as they build future strategies for bases and shipyards, where billion-dollar assets will need protection from such attacks.
The war has left Belarus in a predicament, which boils down to depending on Russia for everything without enjoying the advantages of being part of Russia. In combination with the simmering domestic crisis, it leaves ever fewer incentives for the ruling nomenklatura and wider society to value the current Belarusian statehood.
The potential for cooperation in certain areas, like military technology, may look promising. But Iran cannot be counted upon to really help the Russian economy withstand the impact of sanctions.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, relations between Russia and Iran have flourished. Having been hit by a new raft of tough Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow set about looking for alternative partners among other traditionally anti-Western countries—including to bypass trade restrictions—and Iran looks set to be one of the most promising.
The Czech Republic is stepping up and is set to send T-72B battle tanks to Ukraine. These are Soviet-era main battle tanks that entered production in 1969. It also has a deep history with Ukraine. The original 5TDF engines were replaced by the more modern V-45, which was produced by the Malyshev Factory in Kharkiv.