Coming Soon To A War Near You
In a stunning reversal of policy, the Biden administration has decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with 31 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks. The announcement comes on the heels of Germany capitulating and agreeing to send 14 of their Leopard 2 tanks to the besieged nation. Berlin also gave the green light for other countries to send German-made Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
If Putin succeeds in winning even a little territory, his victory will embolden other predators.
Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp describes Putin’s plan as a “desperate gamble…. Moscow at present does not have the numbers to decisively overcome resistance from the depleted Ukrainian army”. Putin nevertheless has the ability to turn Ukraine into a grease-spot, then take on Moldova, the Baltic States and whatever else he wants.
Mali’s foreign minister defended the military government’s cooperation with Russia on Friday and rejected three options proposed by the U.N. chief to reconfigure the U.N. peacekeeping force in the west African country where Al-Qaida and Islamic State extremist groups are driving insecurity.
Last week US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the Treasury Department will designate the private military company (PMC) Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organisation (TCO). Western states and institutions have explored a variety of legal mechanisms against Wagner in recent years, including terrorism designations and sanctions for supporting separatist forces in Ukraine. The TCO designation is thus the latest measure in a layered sanctioning strategy designed to counter the PMC’s vital and frequently brutal role in advancing Russian state interests internationally. In this piece, we demonstrate that the legal case for the TCO designation is strong. Wagner unambiguously meets the criteria for what constitutes a TCO.
The small Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has seemingly limited strategic significance. But coupled with its growing psychological value, Russia will continue attempting to take the city, despite high casualties, by whatever means necessary.
The scope of the Biden administration’s response to the invasion of Ukraine has already exceeded what many observers—not to mention Russia’s leadership—expected. From intelligence sharing with Kyiv ahead of the invasion to the imposition of unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy to the provision of increasingly capable weaponry to Ukraine’s armed forces, the United States has been critical to the failure of Russia’s “special military operation” to achieve its objectives. Despite US support and Ukrainian valor, the war is now approaching a second year, and several observers in the United States and in Europe have become increasingly alarmed at the consequence of a longer war.
Germany and the United States announced Wednesday that they will send advanced battle tanks to Ukraine, offering what one expert called an “armored punching force” to help Kyiv break combat stalemates as the Russian invasion enters its 12th month.
The capture of the Ukrainian town of Soledar on the Bakhmut front by the Wagner Private Military Company represented a Russian military success after a succession of setbacks. Wagner’s success elicited favorable press for the company including comparisons between its performance and the spotty achievements of the regular Russian army.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves round the world. As our look ahead to 2023 shows, several other crises loom as well.
Will he or won’t he? This time last year, that was the question. Russian President Vladimir Putin had massed almost two hundred thousand troops on Ukraine’s borders. U.S. intelligence warned that Russia was preparing for all-out war. All the signs pointed to an assault, bar one: it seemed unthinkable.
The current energy war between Russia and Europe predated, but was markedly intensified by, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The protagonists are deploying a range of energy weapons aimed at increasing the costs of escalation or remaining in Ukraine (for Russia) as well as of defying Russia’s actions in Ukraine (for Europe). These have upended global energy trade flows and increased energy prices in 2022 relative to the past several years; they have also impacted a wider range of non-energy goods and services as well as diplomatic ties.