That the world is getting even more polarized with each passing day was underscored by two visits this week – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Russia and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s to Ukraine. While Kishida’s visit was all about showing solidarity with the Ukrainians, the Chinese President ostensibly had a more grandiose aim of trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, though in reality, it was primarily aimed at cementing the Sino-Russian axis.
Given the complex interplay between geopolitics and financial markets, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent shockwaves across the global economy. Admittedly, the implications both within and between countries have varied. However, there were some common denominators, including higher commodity prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke at the International Parliamentary Conference Russia – Africa in a Multipolar World held in Moscow under the auspices of the State Duma of the Russian Federal Assembly March 20.
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to a renewed focus on the geopolitical importance of the Black Sea. What the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has overlooked is Russia’s use—often in coordination with Iran—of the Caspian Sea to advance its war aims in Ukraine. The Caspian Sea offers Russia a strategic depth to strike targets far afield in a relatively safe manner, is currently the only way for Russia to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet, and serves as a transport conduit allowing Iran to deliver military assistance to Russia for use against Ukraine.
The downing of a US drone by Russian military aircraft over the Black Sea on March 14 is the kind of incident that immediately sparks fears of the conflict in Ukraine escalating into a shooting war between NATO and Russia.
While the potential for such a scenario exists, it is likely that at this stage all sides will try to calm matters down. Neither the US-led West nor Russia is currently prepared for or have the desire for a direct confrontation with each other.
At a time when conflicts are increasingly interconnected, and provide tactical levers to assert pressure elsewhere, the competition between Russia-Iran and Turkiye in Syria and the South Caucasus is destined to overlap.
CENTCOM commander Michael “Erik” Kurilla told Congress about ongoing ‘aggressive’ behavior by Russian pilots, following the downing of a US MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea.
Russian combat pilots have been flying weapons-laden attack aircraft over US bases in Syria with increasing frequency over the past several weeks, in what Pentagon officials suspect is part of a wider pattern of deliberate provocation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may finally get a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as soon as next week. The expected discussion follows Beijing’s release of a position paper for Ukraine on February 24—the one-year mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Zelenskyy, however, should be wary about what Xi truly seeks, namely the mitigation of criticism about Beijing’s role in the conflict and a platform to sell his Global Security Initiative (GSI), for which Beijing released a concept paper just days before releasing its position paper. As such, it is critical that Zelenskyy provide his honest public assessment of Beijing’s peace plan and role in the conflict—otherwise, he risks giving Beijing the perfect cover to refute questions about its alleged neutrality while doing little to ensure an outcome to the crisis that actually works for Ukraine.
The West Needs to Send Ukraine More Arms, More Quickly
U.S. President Joe Biden’s historic visit to Kyiv days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent an important message to Ukrainians and, indeed, to Russians. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” Biden proclaimed, adding that the United States will support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” Indeed, “as long as it takes” has become the new talking point for Ukraine’s allies, repeated by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. But “as long as it takes” also signals to many Ukrainians that the allies expect the war to drag on for years, with Ukraine bearing the brunt of it. And they are right: even as the United States and its allies have sent billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment to Ukraine, there remains one thing they seem unable to supply: a clear, united commitment to a rapid Ukrainian victory. Unless the United States wants to find itself embroiled in another forever war, on terms that very much suit Russian President Vladimir Putin, it’s time for that to change.
Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby warned that the Su-35 would ‘significantly strengthen Iran’s air force relative to its regional neighbors’
The Islamic Republic of Iran finalized a deal for the purchase of Su-35 fighter jets with the Russian government, according to state media reports on 11 March.
