Rusia

Russia may have recently tested a new Iranian-made Shahed (Geran) drone with new precision capabilities, while likely simultaneously fielding new Russian-made radio-controlled Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces discovered Shahed drone debris on June 18 that had an advanced camera, a computing platform with artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) capabilities, and a radio operation system that allows the drone operator to remotely operate the Shahed drone from Russia.[1] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov told the Associated Press that the new Shahed variants are white and have no markings or labels consistent with Russia-made drones, instead having stickers consistent with the standard Iranian labeling system. Drone experts told AP that Iran may have sold new Shahed variants to Russia for combat testing. Beskresnov also commented on the footage of a black Shahed drone with a radio-controlled camera striking a Ukrainian target in Kramatorsk on June 24.[2] Beskresnov noted that while this Shahed variant appears to be different from the white, possibly Iranian-made Shahed drone. Beskresnov noted that Ukrainian intelligence previously warned that Russia sought to integrate radio communications and cameras into a portion of Shaheds and argued that the Russian-made radio-controlled Shahed variants likely have “primitive” and cheap video and radio communications, whereas the Iranian-made drone likely had expensive components. Beskresnov added that the Russian-made Shaheds are still likely vulnerable to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) due to their reliance on radio communications.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. Though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up reasonably well.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he envisaged a quick seizure of the capital, Kyiv, and a change of government, much like what the Soviets did in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. But the war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end.

The joint investigation of The Insider, Bellingcat and CNN, with the participation of Der Spiegel, established the names and titles of FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny “Novichok”. As it turned out, the poisoning in Tomsk was the second attempt, two months earlier, the same FSB officers made an attempt on the oppositionist in Kaliningrad and almost killed Yulia Navalny. A key role in the attempt was played by a special unit of the Institute of Criminalistics of the FSB.

Le ministère de la Défense russe communique : «Kiev attaque les terrains d’aviation de cinq régions russes. Pas de victimes signalées ni chez les militaires ni chez les civils». Selon les informations diffusées par Kiev (reportées par le Wall Street Journal), l’attaque a été menée de cette façon : «L’agence des services secrets de l’Ukraine (SBU) a passé en contrebande en Russie des éléments de drones ukrainiens et les a assemblés dans un lieu secret. Les agents de la SBU en Russie ont utilisé des camionneurs inconscients pour consigner une version moderne du Cheval de Troie, cachant les drones dans les toits en bois des containers. Dimanche, les toits activés à distance se sont ouverts sur les camions à côté des bases aériennes russes. Plus de 100 quadricoptères -petits drones avec quatre rotors- ont décollé et ont foncé sur leurs objectifs, détruisant 13 avions russes parqués sur les pistes». Ce que Kiev ne dit pas c’est qu’une opération de ce type requiert des hautes technologies et des réseaux satellitaires militaires que l’Ukraine ne possède pas. De toute évidence ils ont été fournis à l’Ukraine par l’OTAN. Que les services secrets ukrainiens sont formés et entraînés par ceux des États-Unis et de l’OTAN n’est pas un secret. «La CIA – confirme le New York Times – aide secrètement l’Ukraine à combattre Poutine. Pendant plus d’une décennie, les États-Unis ont cultivé un partenariat secret d’intelligence avec l’Ukraine qui est maintenant fondamental pour les deux pays pour contrer la Russie».

Le chancelier fédéral Friedrich Merz a déclaré publiquement qu’il n’y a plus de restrictions de portée pour la livraison d’armes occidentales à l’Ukraine. Sont concernés des systèmes d’origine britannique, française, américaine et allemande.

Ukraine’s arrest of suspected Hungarian intelligence operatives in Transcarpathia has revived fears about Budapest’s intentions towards the region. But experts think the incident says more about Orban’s electoral vulnerability than his territorial ambitions.

It would be a betrayal of Hungary’s objective national interests to arm Ukraine since that would indirectly put its co-ethnics in harm’s way due to the increased likelihood of Russian strikes in their country’s historical region that was amputated from it by Stalin as well as directly endanger them too if Kiev decides to violently suppress its Hungarian minority on whatever trumped-up pretext it concocts.