Rusia

The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors “better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible,” believing that Putin is more likely to “negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield.” The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.

The war between Ukraine and Russia has taken a surprising turn when Prigozhin and his group of mercenaries revolted against Putin and marched towards Moscow. They were stopped by a deal mediated by Lukashenko who offered them asylum in Belarus. This event has raised many questions about the future of the war and the region.

Le mystère de la guerre d’Ukraine échappe encore à son Jules César. Pourtant, de plus en plus de détails cruciaux passent les barrages. Poutine montre ses cartes, Loukachenko divulgue des documents, Zelensky baratine et raconte… Quand la guerre a éclaté, les États-Unis venaient de finaliser leur grand exploit : la consolidation de leur pouvoir sur l’ensemble du monde civilisé. Personne dans l’histoire ne pourrait prétendre à une telle prouesse ; ni l’Empire romain d’autrefois, ni l’Empire britannique, ni Hitler ni Staline ; mais les Yanks ont réussi. Leurs agents choisis et leurs mandataires dirigeaient tous les États importants : l’Angleterre et la France, l’Allemagne et le Japon étaient tous gouvernés par des agents américains. L’Allemagne et le Japon peuvent encore être occupés par l’armée américaine, mais même si la France n’a pas de troupes américaines, elle est toujours dirigée par un agent américain. Le mandataire américain de la Suède a récemment accepté d’abandonner sa précieuse et profitable neutralité. La Finlande a renoncé à l’approvisionnement inépuisable en gaz et en bois bon marché de la Russie pour devenir un pion, au cœur de la nature sauvage du grand Nord. Ces agents américains allaient pouvoir infliger d’horribles souffrances à leurs sujets ; ils allaient détruire des industries, amener la famine et des épidémies sur leurs nations, juste pour suivre la baguette magique entre les mains de Washington. Aucun pays n’est loin d’une base militaire américaine : oui, ils contrôlent le monde.

On the evening of Friday, June 23, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin effectively broke ties with Moscow and initiated a mutiny against the Russian military, successfully occupying Rostov. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Prigozhin’s actions in an address to the nation as Russian authorities secured Moscow and reportedly engaged Wagner forces around Rostov. At the time of writing on the afternoon of Saturday, June 24, Prigozhin appears to have accepted a pause in further escalation, stating that Wagner forces will return to base. Today’s special edition of the Russian War Report provides an overview of the last thirty-six hours, including details on how Prigozhin’s rhetoric escalated into open conflict, open-source analysis of the latest footage, and a review of some of the competing narratives on Telegram and across the Russian information ecosystem.

Last week I flew to Moscow, arriving at 4:30 pm on December 8th. In Moscow, it begins to get dark at this time of day, and there will be no sun until about 10 am at this time of the year – the so-called “black days” as opposed to “white nights”. Anyone who is used to living closer to the equator is disturbing. This is the first sign that you are not only in a different country, which I am used to, but also in a different habitat. However, as we drove towards the center of Moscow, which is more than an hour, traffic on the road, road works, everything looked normal. There are three airports in Moscow, and we flew to the farthest from the center, Domodedovo, the main international airport. There is a lot of renovation work going on in Moscow, and while this is holding back traffic on the roads, it indicates that prosperity continues, at least in the capital.

In the current political system, Prigozhin can only be against the elite so long as he is for Putin. It would take the slightest sign from the president for the Wagner boss to disappear.

No one in Russia embodies the anti-elite essence of populist politics today like Yevgeny Prigozhin, formerly known as “Putin’s chef,” more recently as the boss of a vast troll network, and right now as head of the infamous Wagner mercenary army.

Huit jours après le lancement des premières tentatives d’offensive de l’armée ukrainienne contre les lignes défensives russes en région de Zaporijia et dans le sud de la République populaire de Donetsk (RPD), le moins que l’on puisse dire est que le bilan tant en matière de pertes, qu’en matière d’avancée est un désastre.

“Did US have intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline last June?”

The earlier recent theory on the blast was provided by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, Seymour Hersh on February 8, 2023 who alleged that US Navy deep-sea divers planted high-powered C4 explosives under the gas pipelines under cover of NATO naval exercises in June 2022.The Norwegian military then activated the explosives remotely upon receiving an order from the White House.

As the Wagner Group prepares to withdraw its fighters from Bakhmut after months of brutal conflict, there is growing speculation that its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is angling to have his forces redeployed to fragile states in the Middle East and Africa.

The Wagner chief’s furious attack on elites and the war could portend turmoil with potential to extend well beyond Moscow.

Is the post-Putin era in Russia at hand? Probably not yet, barring an unlikely collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine. But a furious public attack on Russia’s entire war effort and its elites by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private Russian militia group “Wagner,” is a sign that some Russian factions are beginning to position themselves for a struggle over who might succeed the Kremlin leader.