Rusia

Despite lofty declarations of support, Ukraine’s main backers are increasingly focused on laying the groundwork for Kyiv’s negotiations with Moscow. Instead of ensuring sustainable security in Europe, the compromises under discussion would embolden Russia and China.

• In today’s summary:
• Russian troops have made significant advances on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction and on the Ugledar salient
• Ukrainian Armed Forces units defend on the left bank of the Oskol River and counterattack in Volchansk in the north of the Kharkiv region
• In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive has stalled again, having run into previously abandoned Russian fortifications
• The interception rate of air targets by Ukrainian air defense forces in October 2024 was 90%
• Ukrainian drones hit more distilleries and reached Chechnya for the first time during the war
• Z-channels close to aviation report the loss of a Mi-28 helicopter and a Su-34 fighter-bomber in a week
• “Spy Dossier” – Russian military personnel in Kursk and Zaporozhye regions have marked themselves with murders of their fellow servicemen
• Ukraine to ask Republic of Korea for military assistance in connection with involvement of DPRK troops in combat operations
• The situation at the front
• This week, the Russian Armed Forces made significant progress in the area from the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction to the southern face of the Ugledar salient . They managed to take the city of Selidovo (as confirmed by DeepState ), and did so relatively quickly, which allowed them to avoid significant destruction. Russian troops broke through to Vishnevoe to the east of the city and tried to advance to Grigorovka and Petrovka. To the south, Russian forces captured the city of Gornyak and neighboring Izmailovka , as well as the village of Kurakhovka . A number of settlements (in particular, Shakhtyorske , Novoukrainka, Bogoyavlenka and Katerinovka ) were captured on the southern face of the Ugledar salient. Apparently, the next goals will be the city of Kurakhovo and the cutting off of the Ugledar salient in general.

The Russian budget has been in deficit since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the draft budget for 2025 also envisages a deficit of 1.1 trillion rubles (0.5% of GDP). For now, the hole is being covered by current borrowing, and the National Welfare Fund (NWF) account looks impressive, but if you take a closer look, in reality, most of it is already illiquid assets that cannot be sold quickly. This means that in the event of a crisis scenario (according to the Central Bank’s calculations, this is a drop in oil prices to $55 per barrel of Brent), the fund will not save the Russian economy and will be exhausted in just a few months.

By the time Burkina Faso’s health ministry declared an epidemic of dengue fever on October 18, 2023, there already were thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was the West African country’s deadliest bout with the disease in years.

Another dangerous outbreak quickly followed: a deluge of Russian disinformation.

Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war over the long term. The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is “in danger of overheating,” noting that Russia’s excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.[1] The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages. ISW has recently reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing the one-time signing bonuses for Russian contract servicemembers in order to sustain Russia’s rate of force generation (roughly 30,000 troops per month), which underscores the fact that Russia does not have an indefinite pool of manpower and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-growing costs of replenishing its frontline losses via various force-generation avenues.[2] The Washington Post also noted that Russia’s stringent migration policies, particularly after the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, have further depleted Russia’s labor pool and amplified economic frictions. This has particularly become the case as migrant workers are increasingly identifying Russia as a hostile and unattractive place to relocate for work.[3] ISW has reported at length on the balance that Putin is trying to strike between catering to his pro-war ultranationalist constituency, which espouses extreme anti-migrant sentiments, and his practical need to leverage migrant labor both economically and militarily.[4]

Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has likely won a simple majority in the Georgian parliamentary election held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results. Partial preliminary results released by the Georgian Central Election Committee (CEC) on October 26 indicate that the Georgian Dream party will likely win the majority of seats in parliament, but the results are neither complete nor final.[1] The results suggest that Georgian Dream will form the new Georgian government, but that it will not have the 113 seats required to obtain the “constitutional majority” it needs to pursue some of the goals it has outlined, including outlawing nearly all opposition parties.[2] The CEC reported that voter turnout was nearly 59 percent- the highest since 2012 when Georgian Dream first came to power.[3]

The recent expansion of BRICS presents considerable geopolitical ramifications, particularly for Russia, which has leveraged its membership to mitigate the economic and political isolation enforced by the United States and NATO since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.