Gloomy speeches at the Munich Security Conference reflect the general mood two years into Russia’s war on Ukraine. Rather than drawing conclusions and analogies that benefit the Kremlin, the West should bolster support for Kyiv.
Dans le dernier sitrep Ukraine, j’évoquais le choix du général Oleksandr Syrsky comme nouveau commandant en chef des forces armées ukrainiennes. Il est probable qu’il soutiendra les choix agressifs du président ukrainien Zelensky.
Extending the transport of Russian gas via Ukraine after 2024 would likely benefit both Russia and Ukraine. Stopping the flow of gas, on the other hand, would be painful for whichever side initiates it.
At the end of 2024, a five-year agreement expires governing one of the oldest and biggest economic links between Russia and Europe: the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. Kyiv has already said it will not extend the agreement, and Russian officials have confirmed no negotiations to that end are under way with either Ukraine or the EU. Still, that’s not to say that no more Russian gas will ever be shipped via Ukraine.
There are no grounds for the doom-filled prophecies that without Zaluzhny, Ukraine faces disaster. But the circumstances of the general’s departure do leave the impression of a president who is overreaching his hand by more or less openly putting narrow and selfish interests before considerations of state.
Russian spy-saboteurs from military unit 29155 of the GRU travel around the world under false names, organizing murders, explosions and chemical weapons poisonings, but before going abroad they need to create a reliable legend. Sometimes, for this purpose, they spend years infiltrating the circles of human rights activists, journalists or filmmakers. Having gained trust in these circles, the GRU killers were able to infiltrate Kasparov’s forum, join the Documentary Film League and get a job at the newspaper.
L’étude de Clausewitz, ainsi que d’autres classiques de la doctrine militaire, nous permet de mieux comprendre la position historique de la Russie qui consiste à «se défendre en attaquant», ce qui a été évident tout au long de l’opération militaire spéciale.
How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum
A Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat
Many held high hopes for Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive. Previous Ukrainian successes at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson encouraged expectations that a new effort, reinforced with new Western equipment and training, might rupture Russian defenses on a larger scale and sever the Russian land bridge to Crimea. If it did, the thinking went, the resulting threat to Crimea might persuade Putin to end the war.
Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Yemeni-Houthi Ansar Allah Political Bureau said on a January 24, 2024 show on Al-Araby TV (Qatar) on January 24, 2024 that his movement does not support the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. He said that his movement is a “moral movement,” therefore despite the Houthi’s good relations with Russia, the Ukrainian government’s support of the “aggression” against Yemen in 2015, the Ukrainian government being a “coup” government, and its support of the aggression against Gaza, the Houthis distinguish between the Ukrainian people and its government. Al-Bukhaiti continued to say that it is the United States that is responsible for the war in Ukraine, because it has been seeking to expand NATO.
Calmly acknowledging setbacks and sharing constructive critiques afterwards aligns with the spirit of what President Putin suggested earlier in the summer when he advised against indulging in wishful thinking. Nobody who sincerely supports this newly restored world power and its de facto leadership of the Global Revolutionary Movement in the New Cold War could in good conscience eschew their moral responsibility to encourage Russia’s self-improvement through these well-intended means.
Latest Developments
The Houthis in Yemen announced on January 19 that they would permit Chinese and Russian vessels to safely transit the Red Sea. The same day, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called on the Houthis to cease “harassment” of commercial shipping and announced unspecified future efforts to protect regional seaborne commerce. Nevertheless, the price of shipping a 40-foot container between Europe and China increased by 260 percent within the past month, pressuring countries that rely on shipping through the Red Sea.