In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article — “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” — in which he wrote that he was convinced that the “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”
“The Russian regime’s foremost interest is its own hold on power. All policy, internal and external, stems from this overriding goal.” — Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl, Center for European Policy Analysis.
Ziarul rusesc Pravda aruncă pe piață un scenariu halucinant: Ucraina riscă să dispară de pe harta lumii printr-un acord între Federația Rusă și Statele Unite.
A report in Covert Action Magazine from the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic in Eastern Ukraine describes grave fears of a new offensive by Ukrainian government forces, after increased shelling, a drone strike by a Turkish-built drone and an attack on Staromaryevka, a village inside the buffer zone established by the 2014-15 Minsk Accords.
The People’s Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR), which declared independence in response to the U.S.-backed coup in Ukraine in 2014, have once again become flashpoints in the intensifying Cold War between the United States and Russia. The U.S. and NATO appear to be fully supporting a new government offensive against these Russian-backed enclaves, which could quickly escalate into a full-blown international military conflict.
Ominous signs indicate that Russia may conduct a military offensive in Ukraine as early as the coming winter. Moscow has quietly built up its forces along the Ukrainian border over the past several months, which could be a prelude to a military operation that aims to resolve the political deadlock in Ukraine in its favor. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin may once again be engaging in coercive diplomacy, this time around Moscow may not be bluffing. If no agreement is reached, the conflict may renew on a much larger scale.
This past spring, Russia amassed 100,000 troops and a host of military equipment near the Ukrainian border in a transparent bid to threaten Kyiv; it seemed that an invasion might be imminent. Then, Russia withdrew most of its forces, claiming they had completed a training exercise, and the crisis was averted.
Fast-forward six months, and the situation has once again turned dire. Roughly 100,000 Russian troop have gathered at the border, along with tanks and artillery systems. U.S. officials have warned that Russia may be about to launch an attack. “Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014 when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory, and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month, referring to Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.
Violent explosions rocked the areas under the control of the Syrian regime in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor, yesterday morning (Sunday), caused by intense air strikes, carried out by Russian warplanes on areas in the desert of the region, in an attempt to target ISIS, which is hiding in the caves and caves of the Badia. From him, hours after an ambush carried out by the organization, which caused heavy casualties among the militias loyal to the regime.
The Syrian regime and Russia were under the impression that the YPG is on the ropes, but that turned out to be a strategic miscalculation as the YPG is still unwilling to make major concessions. This means the YPG-Syrian regime deal is falling apart.
When the US pulled out of Syria without adequately coordinating with its NATO ally Turkey, people in the Kremlin may have been filled with joy and euphoria. The short-sighed policies of CENTCOM officials in Syria have not only caused a major dispute within NATO but also resulted in the pullout of the Americans from the country.
Admit nothing, deny everything, blame NATO and the West. That seems to be the Russian playbook under Vladimir Putin. The Russians have been massing troops on the Ukrainian border since spring. Many troops still remain in the region. Now, Russia is reinforcing them covertly as many experts believe that Moscow may be planning on making another move into Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus are also conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Poland as Moscow continues to act increasingly more aggressively in the region.
The UK has a crucial role to play in building up Ukraine’s military capacity, developing NATO coordination in the area and helping to deter Russian aggression.
In June 2021, British destroyer HMS Defender conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea, close to Russian-occupied Crimea. A Russian patrol vessel fired warning shots at HMS Defender, which was shadowed by Russian naval and air assets. The British operation was a signal of solidarity to Ukraine which has put a spotlight on the UK’s involvement in the Black Sea and the emerging UK–Ukraine strategic defence partnership. The UK and Ukraine have recently signed the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement, engaged in a rigorous defence dialogue and forged a cooperation agenda in the defence industry. The UK has stepped up its support to Ukraine to help it resist Russia’s hybrid pressures.
Despite persistent rumours, Russia remains highly unlikely to attempt to annex Belarus.
Rumours of a Russian takeover of Belarus have been around ever since Russia and Belarus signed the Union State Treaty in 1999. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea demonstrated that it was willing to act on its – up to that point purely rhetorical – commitment to the protection of its ‘compatriots’, pundits have argued that Belarus, home to large scores of Russian speakers, may well constitute the ‘next Crimea’. The nationwide protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that broke out around the fraudulent August 2020 presidential elections gave new impetus to these rumours: commentators argued that Russia might use the instability caused by the protests as an excuse to intervene in Belarus to pacify the country or some of its regions.