A third world war may begin for the same reasons that World War I did, as a result of the collapse of communications between major powers and miscalculations arising from the resulting tendency of governments to impute intentions on the basis of observed capabilities, Andrey Kortunov says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had been isolated on Ukraine in a series of major summits throughout December, but that changed significantly on Wednesday when his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping offered his strong support, strengthening an emerging Moscow-Beijing axis.
The Chinese premier’s alliance with Putin — one of the key factors emboldening Russian foreign policy in recent years — has significant implications not only for geopolitics but also the global economy. With both men potentially in power until well into the 2030s, they may well be seen by future historians as the two dominant figures in international relations in the first three to four decades of the 21st century.
Cognizant of India’s growing strategic denouement with Russia, visibly so in 2021, in wake of Russia’s outsized priority to China and pivot to Pakistan in its South Asian policy formulations, Russian President Putin made a significant six-hour dash to India, to rebalance Russia’s fraying strategic partnership with India on December 06 2021 for a Summit Meet with Indian PM Modi and also to mark the initiation of Russia-India 2+2 Dialogue of respective Foreign Ministers and Defence Ministers.
Older Russians blame NATO for rising tensions between the Kremlin and Western powers over Ukraine, according to a public survey conducted this week by an independent Moscow-based pollster.
Across all age groups, half of those polled by the Levada Center believe the United States and other NATO nations are “the initiators of the exacerbation of the situation in eastern Ukraine,” while only 4% blamed Russia. Sixteen percent saw Kyiv as being responsible for worsening relations.
While much of the world wonders when Russia will invade Ukraine, the US Senate’s number 2 ranking member on the Armed Forces committee has added something new:
When will the US invade Russia?
Senator Roger Wicker disclosed that a US invasion of Russia is on the table. He spoke on national TV immediately after the Biden-Putin virtual summit about Ukraine.
Amid a big Russian military buildup near Ukraine and on the Russian-controlled Crimean Peninsula, the Kremlin has kept a lot of people guessing about its plans and intentions.
It did the same after President Vladimir Putin’s video call with U.S. President Joe Biden on December 7, issuing a statement about the talks nearly two hours after the White House released its readout.
A failure to prevent further Russian advances into Ukraine will have ramifications across the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
A war scare in Ukraine is a pivotal moment for the West. It tests transatlantic resolve, unity, and the very foundations of NATO. Failure to prevent potential Russian military advances or an unwillingness to respond if such a move occurs will likely cause an accentuation of internal divisions within NATO and the European Union (EU.)
“European Union and NATO allies have swung behind the Biden administration’s assessment that Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine following unprecedented sharing of US intelligence on Moscow’s military preparations”, reported Financial Times on December 6. President Joe Biden in a video link was expected to warn President Vladimir Putin of the consequences of such an invasion. Putin was expected to reply that there can be no consequences for an event that is not going to happen.
Warnings of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine have a “High Noon” feel. A renewed crisis could spur the United States and its NATO allies to go beyond, perhaps well beyond, their responses to Russia’s 2014 assault. This militarization could cause a dramatic increase in defense spending by both the United States and NATO over the next decade.
In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article — “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” — in which he wrote that he was convinced that the “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”
“The Russian regime’s foremost interest is its own hold on power. All policy, internal and external, stems from this overriding goal.” — Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl, Center for European Policy Analysis.