Ukraine’s leader and his defense and security aides are assessing Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s intentions differently from many of their Western counterparts. Are they just more stoical after eight years of persistent Russian provocations and a long-running war in eastern Ukraine—or are they misreading their Russian adversary?
The deployment, which Moscow has described as routine exercises, risks escalating a flashpoint in the strategic sea lane that Russia has previously used to pressure Kyiv.
Russia deployed more than 20 warships into the Black Sea on Wednesday, representing a troubling new source of potential military escalation at a time of already heightened tensions with Ukraine and its Western backers.
The January visit of Iran’s President Ibrahim Raisi to Moscow aligns Iran and Russia more closely.
The two countries see common interest in countering growing pressure on them from the United States and other western powers.
Iran and Russia are negotiating a long term economic and military accord similar to that between Iran and China.
NATO unity and diplomacy are the hopes for preventing a wider Russian invasion.
The risk of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine remains high after today’s meeting in Geneva between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The United States delivered its warning, with European allies, of what Blinken called a “swift, severe and a united response” if the Russian troops massed at Ukraine’s border should attack. But the outcome offered at least a hope of avoiding war as Blinken agreed to offer a set of “written comments” to Russia next week on its demand for “security guarantees” that include barring Ukraine from ever joining NATO — a demand that Ukraine, NATO and the United States reject.
Russian and Chinese presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will spend a “lot of time” discussing security in Europe and the set of demands Moscow has made of the West when they meet for talks next week, the Kremlin said on Friday.
Reuters reported that Putin will travel to China to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics on Feb. 4 against the backdrop of a tense confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
Ukraine is an important transit country for supplies of oil and natural gas from Russia to countries throughout Europe.
Ukraine’s hydrocarbon resources are located in the Dnieper-Donetsk region in the east, the Carpathian region in the west, and the Black Sea-Sea of Azov region in the south. The Dnieper-Donetsk region accounts for 90% of natural gas production. The remaining 10% of natural gas production originates in the Carpathian and Black Sea-Sea of Azov regions.
Ukraine produces coal, natural gas, petroleum and other liquids, nuclear, and renewables. However, energy demand exceeds domestic energy supply; imports cover an energy gap of about 35%.
A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan
The current crisis between Russia and Ukraine is a reckoning that has been 30 years in the making. It is about much more than Ukraine and its possible NATO membership. It is about the future of the European order crafted after the Soviet Union’s collapse. During the 1990s, the United States and its allies designed a Euro-Atlantic security architecture in which Russia had no clear commitment or stake, and since Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power, Russia has been challenging that system. Putin has routinely complained that the global order ignores Russia’s security concerns, and he has demanded that the West recognize Moscow’s right to a sphere of privileged interests in the post-Soviet space. He has staged incursions into neighboring states, such as Georgia, that have moved out of Russia’s orbit in order to prevent them from fully reorienting.
While Bulgaria will not just benefit from other’s security, Sofia de facto refused an additional presence of NATO forces on the country’s territory in connection with the Ukraine crisis and committed to resolving it diplomatically.
The position of the Bulgarian government is clear – Bulgaria will be a constructive ally in NATO and the EU, and will maintain a responsible and predictable position. This was stated by Prime Minister Kirill Petkov during an extraordinary session of parliament on Ukraine on Wednesday.
As Russia threatens to move its forces across the Ukrainian border, the talk in Washington, D.C. is focused on how many weapons and troops the United States can send and how quickly, how to design the most crippling sanctions, and whether to impose them before or after an invasion occurs.
Why won’t Russia’s Vladimir Putin let Ukraine go? He might not be able to, according to a former head of Britain’s MI6 external intelligence agency, Alex Younger.
In an interview Tuesday with the BBC, Younger said he cannot see how the Russian leader can back down as fears mount that Putin is poised to order a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.