Rusia

Vladimir Putin is a bully and a despot: Appeasing him overtly is certainly wrong. But Russia must be handled with cleverness and care and NATO, with its unnecessary overreach on Ukraine, failed to do so

Vladimir Putin is a bully and a menace. Standing up for his victims will always feel right, and appeasing him overtly would certainly be wrong. But Russia must be handled with cleverness and care. The West has put itself in an awkward position by overreaching unnecessarily on NATO membership for Ukraine.

Some 2,000 American troops will be deployed to Poland and Germany, while around 1,000 troops now based in Germany will head to Romania

U.S. President Joe Biden has approved sending additional forces to Eastern Europe, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday, as Washington reinforces its allies against what it describes as a Russian threat to invade Ukraine.

The Cold War ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the diminishing of Moscow’s influence in Eastern Europe. The geopolitical situation of world today has presented Russia with an opportunity to again assert its primacy in Eastern Europe. The United States now is deeply divided politically and is challenged by China in an unprecedented manner which is seeking to displace the United States as the most powerful nation in the world. As the United States has changed it’s priorities to focus its defence and geopolitical influence towards countering China in the Indo-Pacific region, Russia has sensed an opportunity it was waiting for and has directly challenged NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in Europe.

Putin seems to understand Biden. Putin also seems to understand hollow threats and ineffective sanctions.

Putin, in addition, reduced natural gas exports to Europe by 41% last month… It appears to be a “squeeze play.” Putin would appear to be choking off natural gas supplies to Europe as a wedge, to divide the United States from NATO allies over the threatened “severe sanctions.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s top security demands but said Moscow is willing to talk more to ease tensions over Ukraine.

The comments were his first on the standoff in more than a month and suggested a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be imminent and that at least one more round of diplomacy is likely.

The table tennis coach, the chaplain’s wife, the dentist and the firebrand nationalist have little in common except a desire to defend their hometown and a sometimes halting effort to speak Ukrainian instead of Russian.

The situation in Kharkiv, just 40 kilometers (25 miles) from some of the tens of thousands of Russian troops massed at the border of Ukraine, feels particularly perilous. Ukraine’s second-largest city is one of its industrial centers and includes two factories that restore old Soviet-era tanks or build new ones.

At a State Department press briefing, the department’s spokesperson Ned Price fielded the following question:

QUESTION: Russian officials have warned Moscow could deploy troops to Cuba and Venezuela if the U.S. and NATO insist on the crisis of Ukraine. Is the U.S. concerned about it? Have you seen any movement in that regard?

MR PRICE: Look, we are not going to respond to bluster. If we do see any movement in that direction, we will respond swiftly and decisively.[1]

At a White House Press Conference, US President Joe Biden fielded a question about a hypothetical NATO response to a Russian attack on Ukraine. He answered: “I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion.”[1]

The essence of the crisis in Ukraine is that Russia can gain many benefits from its unspoken threat to invade, but none at all from actually doing so. “Russia will keep piling on the pressure,” a veteran analyst of Ukrainian affairs, who wishes to remain anonymous, told me. “But I can see no upside for Putin in carrying out an invasion.”

Russian troops might be able to capture Kyiv in a week, but this would only be the start of a long war that Russia would find it impossible to win. A more limited Russian offensive in east Ukraine – such as seizing a land corridor between the Russian separatist Donbas and Russian annexed Crimea – is scarcely a more attractive option. It would push the rest of Ukraine further into the embrace of Nato, which would be exactly the opposite of what Russia wants.

Beyond its immediate implications for European security, the current crisis at the Ukraine-Russia border highlights the enduring importance of state sovereignty as an ordering principle in world politics, notwithstanding frequent claims that globalization has rendered it obsolete. It also exposes the tendency of governments to invoke, dismiss or reinterpret this bedrock principle to suit their situational needs. In fact, global stability now depends on whether the United States and European Union are able to reaffirm and defend the centrality of state sovereignty against a Russian attempt to dismiss it.