Rusia

Settling for Less in the Middle East

There is no question that the Middle East is a mess. The usual explanations for the disarray, however, fail to capture the root cause. Sectarianism, popular discontent with unrepresentative governments, economic failure, and foreign interference are the usual suspects in most analyses, but they are symptoms of the regional crisis, not causes. The weakness, and in some cases collapse, of central authority in so many of the region’s states is the real source of its current disorder. The civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, along with the frail governments in Iraq, Lebanon, and the quasi state of Palestine, define the long-term geopolitical challenge of the region. These political vacuums invite the intervention of powers near and far. They allow sectarian and ethnic identities to become more salient. They give terrorist groups opportunities for growth. They impede economic development. And they create profound human suffering, which leads to massive refugee flows.

The threat of war is difficult to beat when it comes to mending or enhancing a damaged reputation. President Joe Biden and Boris Johnson, both derided as ineffective in domestic policy only a few weeks ago, are now reborn as statesmen capable of guiding their countries through the minefield of Eastern European politics.

Europe’s most divisive energy project, worth $11 billion, was finished in September.

Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany, after Russia formally recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday questioned whether Ukraine had a right to sovereignty because he said the government in Kyiv did not represent the country’s constituent parts, the Interfax news agency reported.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a press conference Russia would deploy troops, but it is unclear when.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Minsk agreements, which were intended to end the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine, “no longer exist” and that Russia would provide military assistance to separatists, during a press conference on Tuesday evening, according to the Russian TASS news agency.

Urgent appeal of civil society leaders of Ukraine to the Congress of the United States of America

The lives of millions of Ukrainians are at stake, and hours of delay and wrong decisions may cost dear price. If the Russian Federation is not stopped by the severest sanctions now, a disastrous war will erupt in one of the biggest countries of Europe, a breadbasket of the planet. Moreover, this war has the potential to spill over into NATO countries and grow into a large-scale regional conflict.

In the war zone:

Russian proxies launch 86 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donetsk, Luhansk and Mariupol sectors, incl heavy artillery and weapons banned by Minsk, reports JFO.

Moscow still has the initiative in a crisis it provoked but apparent Russian failure so far to engineer a phony “internal” Ukrainian opposition leaves the situation literally on a knife’s edge. Russian propaganda is attempting to claim victory already by portraying post-Afghanistan America as “exhausted” but Moscow has struggled to provoke Western diplomatic disarray. For its part, the United States has lurched from a chaotic Trump Administration to the chaos of Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and finds itself having to react to Vladimir Putin’s moves all around the former Soviet periphery. Still, Washington’s stern public warnings about Russian preparations seem to have surprised Moscow and out Putin on the back foot.