Putin’s decision to elevate the alert status of Russia’s nuclear forces is both a signal of how much Ukraine means to the Russian leader, and a deterrent against future Western actions. European allies must continue to present a unified response, while also exploring opportunities for de-escalation.
An assault on Kyiv will be bloody for both sides. But for the civilian population it will be devastating.
It is only a matter of time before Russian forces reach and complete the encirclement of Kyiv. Russian armoured units have advanced to the northern outskirts of the city, while satellite images show a build-up of 150 attack and transport helicopters in southern Belarus, less than a 100 miles from Kyiv, and large military convoys on their way to the capital. Although there has been confusion regarding the invasion aims, a consensus is emerging among Western officials and commentators that Russian forces will probably seek to secure key government administrative buildings and remove Ukraine’s incumbent government.
As the fighting in Ukraine intensifies in its largest cities, fears are rising that a war of attrition will mean an escalation of violence and the use of ever more deadly weapons.
On Saturday, a CNN correspondent captured footage of what appeared to be a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower system being transported to the Ukrainian border near the Russian city of Belgorod.
The head of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, has suggested that the International Space Station (ISS) could fall out of orbit and crash into the United States or Europe as a result of sanctions on Russia.
The comments came following US president Joe Biden’s announcement of new sanctions that “will degrade their [Russia’s] aerospace industry, including their space programme”.
They’re mysterious, they’re disruptive, and they’ve picked their side in the war pitting Russia against Ukraine.
The hacker collective Anonymous has claimed credit for several cyberattacks that took down Russian government websites and state-backed news outlets in recent days.
Currently, Russia provides Germany with 55 percent of the natural gas, 50 percent of the coal, and 35 percent of the oil consumed by its inhabitants.
On Thursday, Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that he is not in favor of banning energy imports from Russia as they are necessary to prevent prices from “rising further” and guarantee “social peace” in Germany.
The Kremlin signaled that it is willing to negotiate surrender terms with Ukraine in the midst of ongoing attacks on the country by Russian Forces in a statement by Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov at about 2 pm today. According to Peskov, President Putin is now willing to speak to Ukrainian President Zelinsky about the country disarming, de-coupling from the West, and cleansing itself of “pro-Nazi” people.
As Russia ramps up its invasion of Ukraine, it’s increasingly obvious that Europe and the United States need to build resiliency against further hostile actions from the Kremlin such as the weaponization of energy. Western states have been left scrambling for nonmilitary interventions—but the problem for NATO is that European allies are far more sensitive to economic sanctions against Russia due to their greater fiscal and trade exposure to Russia. And worryingly, they still lean on Moscow as a major energy supplier—particularly of natural gas. Washington needs to break this dependency and more broadly help soften the economic blow to Europe.
The bottom line
During the first week of the war, Russian ground forces have become bogged down outside of the northern Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv due to their failure to establish air superiority (which has resulted in significant aircraft and helicopter losses), too few troops to execute three simultaneous thrusts (toward Kyiv and Kharkiv, and north from Crimea), poor coordination of fires and maneuver, significant logistical issues, and stronger than expected Ukrainian resistance. Russia’s naval superiority in the Black Sea has contributed to success in its southern area of operations, with Russian forces breaking out from the Crimean Peninsula and taking territory in southern Ukraine. Although Ukraine has fought well and disrupted plans for a quick and decisive Russian victory, the situation is still perilous. Russia is moving to encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv and appears to have switched to indiscriminate long-range fires—resulting in significant collateral damage in residential areas—and is making significant progress in the south.
As Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine continues to escalate, many are asking what the Russian dictator ultimately hopes to achieve. During his March 3 phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Russian ruler made clear that he is committed to taking full control of Ukraine and “neutralizing” the country. Following their conversation, Macron warned that “the worst is yet to come.”