Rusia

There is already pressure to get involved if there is a full-scale invasion, but our history with proxy wars is littered with folly.

Editor’s Note, 2/24 6 a.m. EST: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine Thursday morning local time and his forces have been entering the country and attacking military infrastructure across Ukraine, drawing international condemnation. This is a developing story.

---

The US and Russia both have integrated doomsday weapons into conventional war plans. The risk is low but it isn’t zero.

If you are frightened by the current crisis in Ukraine, you are having a rational response.

The hawks are already trying to exploit the Russian invasion, saying a shortfall in spending is leaving us vulnerable. Not true.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a growing chorus of pundits and policy analysts have been advocating for large increases in America’s enormous budget for national defense, on top of the $778 billion Congress has authorized for Fiscal Year 2022. These calls are both misguided and counterproductive.

For those who understand Moscow’s establishment and view of their country’s vital interests, none of this should be a surprise.

The illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine has shocked the West and many ordinary Russians. But for those who understand the Russian establishment and its view of Russia’s vital interests, it should not have come as a complete surprise.

Such measures are critical to holding Moscow accountable for its actions — but they are not a longterm fix and must be carefully calibrated.

From the beginning of the crisis sanctions have been assumed to be both the central deterrent to Russian aggression, and the critical punishment if it violated international law. In response to the invasion, the Biden Administration (wisely) ruled out the direct use of U.S. military forces in Ukraine and instead announced an unprecedented package of hard-hitting economic sanctions.

How Putin’s Aggression Is Changing Berlin

Within a week, Germany has undergone a dramatic transformation, shedding its reluctant and dovish foreign policy and committing itself to drastically increase defense spending. The shock of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine spurred Berlin to send thousands of antitank and antiaircraft weapons to Kyiv. A country that has been criticized by its allies for doing too little, too late has jumped to the front of the pack to take on a leadership role in European security. Germany now seeks to isolate and punish Russia after decades of appeasing and accommodating it. What is more, Germany will strive for energy independence from Russia by creating new domestic energy sources while it weans itself off its Russian supply.

Anceps fortuna belli
(The fate of war is uncertain)

– Cicero (106-43BCE)

A Facebook friend asked me to write something on the Ukraine crisis for his page in Q & A form.

Q: Briefly, what is the recent historical background to this conflict?

The defenders of Ukraine are bravely resisting Russian aggression, shaming the rest of the world and the UN Security Council for its failure to protect them. It is an encouraging sign that the Russians and Ukrainians are holding talks in Belarus that may lead to a ceasefire. All efforts must be made to bring an end to this war before the Russian war machine kills thousands more of Ukraine’s defenders and civilians, and forces hundreds of thousands more to flee.

Russia’s massive invasion of neighboring Ukraine has laid bare a fundamental question facing the United States: At a time of public exhaustion with U.S. involvement in foreign wars, and isolationist wings prominent in both parties, are Americans willing to make sacrifices in defense of democratic values?

Biden surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S. support for the pipeline on January 9, thereby effectively killing the project, preventing a diversified supply of energy to Europe, and further assuring even greater revenues for Russia and its war machine.