Rusia

No magic tap for Europe to replace Russian gas via Turkey

Europe has been looking to Azerbaijan, Israel and other countries to transit gas via Turkey, but assuming political obstacles can be overcome, the massive investments needed will take time to realize.

The build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders and the subsequent brutal invasion has sent European leaders rushing to find new sources of natural gas to replace at least a significant part of the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that the European Union imported from Russia last year — around 40% of its total consumption. But securing new pipeline gas supplies will not be easy or quick. The simple fact is that there is no “magic tap” that the EU can turn on.

Biden’s China ‘pivot’ complicated by Russia’s war in Ukraine

President Joe Biden set out to finally complete the “pivot to Asia,” a long-sought adjustment of U.S. foreign policy to better reflect the rise of America’s most significant military and economic competitor: China.

But Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has made that vexing move even more complicated. China’s government has vacillated between full embrace and more measured responses as Russian President Vladimir Putin prosecutes his war, making the decisions for Biden far more layered.

Ukrainian Counterattacks Compound Russia’s Military Problem

Russian warships bombarded targets near Odesa Wednesday morning, possibly as a part of a buildup to an attack on the Ukrainian port city. But some military strategists say Russian forces are struggling to hold territory they have seized and have suffered some serious reversals in fierce skirmishes elsewhere that will likely delay an assault on Odesa.

How War In Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World’s Regions – Analysis

eyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire global economy will feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation.

Impacts will flow through three main channels. One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy will push up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand. Two, neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee flows. And three, reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital

Will Erdogan draw lessons from Putin’s Ukraine mistakes?

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watches Russian forces flounder in Ukraine, he may be rethinking his own ambitions — or concluding that Turkey is in a better spot than ever.

Turkey’s diplomatic isolation was the focus of excited punditry in recent years. But today, Ankara is running out of red carpet as a deluge of foreign dignitaries knock at its door.

The Man Behind Putin’s Military

How Sergey Shoygu Paved the Way for Russia’s Ukraine Assault

On February 25, barely 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces reached Kyiv. Even accounting for Russia’s vastly superior firepower, the speed of the military advance has been startling. But it also has highlighted something else: the extent to which the Kremlin’s entire pressure campaign on Ukraine has been driven by the Russia military. In contrast to many previous efforts by Moscow to achieve political goals in the West—or to exact retribution on a perceived enemy—the Ukraine offensive has not been driven by the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s security agency, which has often drawn the lion’s share of Western attention. Instead, it has been shaped from the outset by old-fashioned military power projection: first by amassing an overwhelming force on the border and then, with the world watching, quickly and efficiently putting that force to use.

Xi Jinping’s Faltering Foreign Policy

Regardless of whether Beijing had advance warning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s decision to issue a statement last month outlining a “no limits” partnership with Moscow was arguably the single biggest foreign policy blunder of his nearly ten years in power. Russian President Vladimir Putin will receive the overwhelming share of the blowback for his unprovoked assault on Ukraine, but Xi’s public declaration, coupled with Beijing’s continued diplomatic support for Moscow, has undermined China’s reputation and provoked renewed concerns over its global ambitions. Indeed, the intensifying war in Ukraine has already prompted calls for Taiwan to improve its defense capabilities and has given security partnerships such as NATO, the Quad, and AUKUS a renewed sense of purpose.

Strategic Implications for Africa from Russia’s Invasion in Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call to the implications of Russia’s attempts to export its governance model to Africa—with sobering consequences for African sovereignty and stability.

It’s commonly held that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective for invading Ukraine is to install a puppet regime that is pliable to Moscow’s interests. If so, this would be consistent with the approach Russia has taken with its forays into Africa in recent years.