Rusia

Those who believe Putin is trying to reestablish Russia as a great power say that once he gains control over Ukraine, he will turn his focus to other former Soviet republics, including the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and eventually Bulgaria, Romania and even Poland.

“The Eurasian Empire will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, the strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us.” — Aleksandr Dugin, Russian strategist, “Foundation of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.”

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only changed the geopolitical landscape, but also profoundly altered the global energy balance.

Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical risks have stimulated a sharp rise in international oil prices. Since February 21, 2022, when Russia recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities until March 2, the price of Brent crude oil rose 17.6%., from $97.38 to $114.5; the price of Crude Oil WTI rose 20%, from $92.8 to $111.38. On March 2, the gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, soared to a record high to over 194 euro per megawatt-hour, equivalent to more than 2,000 euro per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.

“The U.S. planned to conduct work on pathogens of birds, bats, and reptiles in Ukraine in 2022,” Konashenkov said.

On Thursday, the Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov denounced that the U.S. financed Ukranian biolabs to carry out experiments with bat coronavirus samples.

War, as well as causing death and destruction, is harmful to economies: it destroys physical and human capital, increases uncertainty and stifles investment and consumption. But in addition to the direct economic impact of the war in Ukraine –which will bring both the Ukrainian and, owing to Western sanctions, the Russian economies to a shuddering halt– one must also mention the unclear effect of turbulence in the fuel and raw materials markets, with fallout that is still very uncertain for Europe, as well as the impact of other economic measures that may be adopted in the future if the conflict persists. All this will steer the world economy, in the best-case scenarios, towards lower growth and greater inflation; and, in the worst case scenario, to an acute stalling of growth that could turn into a recession in many European countries (and elsewhere) owing to shocks in the financial and commodity markets.

Vladimir Putin may have anticipated a repeat of Russia’s seizure of Crimea, but what we have seen is more similar to Chechnya.

At first glance, Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine seemed to suggest a change in the approach of the Russian armed forces.

1. Strong Focus on Data

“Information is often valuable, but you need to net it out of the agenda, of the noise, and find the valuable information,” Grozev said. He explained that this is why Bellingcat’s work is data-focused rather than based on sources, as sources often have agendas. Before the war, Grozev’s team received tip-offs about what was going to happen. As these were unverified claims from sources, they didn’t publish them, but they gave them some hints about the situation in the Kremlin.