Rusia

War’s End in Kyiv

I am under no illusions that President Vladimir Putin will ever negotiate terms of peace, at least not in good faith. Nor will he ever admit defeat in Ukraine. I would say he has a spartan view of war (“Come back with your shield or on it”) except that it denigrates the Spartans to compare them to the Russian president. The Spartans did their own fighting, while Putin phones in his kill orders from the safety of a gilded villa.

Russia and Iran Militias Clash in Qamishli

On Thursday, the city of Qamishli, north of Hassakeh, witnessed an intense security alert of the Russia-backed National Defense Forces militia and pro-Iran militias affiliated with the IRGC. This came after armed clashes took place between the two sides.

U.S., Russia Allies Witness Friction in Northeast Syria

Syrian government forces used automatic weapons to attack a military checkpoint in the village of Kozliya in the northern countryside of al-Hassakeh governorate. The outpost was run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is backed by the Washington-led International Coalition.

The attack resulted in the death of a government officer and soldier and two SDF fighters.

Recap: With Russia Busy in Ukraine, Iran Moves in Syria

The War in Ukraine is occupying all the headlines. Seen as the downfall of the European state system, its repercussions are believed to be mostly focused inside the old continent. However, the repercussions of the Russian war extend to Syria as well through many channels. Among these, it provides a perfect opportunity for Iran, Russia’s partner, to gain some ground in the country.

The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency

Russia’s Invasion Could Unleash Forces the Kremlin Can’t Control

Russian forces have struck targets across Ukraine and seized key facilities and swaths of territory. The Ukrainian military is no match for this Russian juggernaut. Although some reports suggest Ukrainian troops have rebuffed attacks in certain parts of the country, it seems more likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide just how far Russia goes into Ukraine. As a retired Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who served in Central Asia and managed agency counterinsurgency operations, I did not think Putin would have attacked Ukraine unless he had already devised a reliable end game, given the costs of an intractable conflict. But Putin’s best-laid plans might easily unravel in the face of popular Ukrainian national resistance and an insurgency.

The Man Behind Putin’s Military

How Sergey Shoygu Paved the Way for Russia’s Ukraine Assault

On February 25, barely 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces reached Kyiv. Even accounting for Russia’s vastly superior firepower, the speed of the military advance has been startling. But it also has highlighted something else: the extent to which the Kremlin’s entire pressure campaign on Ukraine has been driven by the Russia military. In contrast to many previous efforts by Moscow to achieve political goals in the West—or to exact retribution on a perceived enemy—the Ukraine offensive has not been driven by the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s security agency, which has often drawn the lion’s share of Western attention. Instead, it has been shaped from the outset by old-fashioned military power projection: first by amassing an overwhelming force on the border and then, with the world watching, quickly and efficiently putting that force to use.

The Beginning of the End for Putin?

Dictatorships Look Stable—Until They Aren’t

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine has been a clarifying moment. Since he came to power in 2000, various Western leaders have tried to cooperate, accommodate, or negotiate with him. But by embarking on a war of choice against a country he claims doesn’t have a right to exist, Putin has forced the international community to see him for what he is: a belligerent leader with a remarkable capacity for destruction. The result has been sweeping new measures designed to constrict and constrain him—punishing sanctions against Russia’s financial institutions, bans on Russian planes over EU airspace, and increased weapons shipments to Ukraine. Even Germany, long reluctant to confront Putin, agreed to exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, reversed its long-standing prohibition on providing arms to conflict zones, and substantially increased its military spending. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked nothing less than a sea change in international perceptions of Putin and what must be done to confront him.