Rusia

Questions are being belatedly asked — and grudgingly answered — about many aspects of Merkel’s failed Russia policy, including her decisions to block Ukraine’s prospective membership of NATO, gut the German military, undermine the transatlantic alliance, and institutionalize Germany’s overdependence on Russian energy supplies.

The responsibility for Germany’s failed Russia policy goes far beyond Merkel: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and a large cross section of Germany’s business, media and political elite have supported — and continue to support — pro-Russia (as well as pro-China and pro-Iran) policies that sacrifice democracy, human rights, and the rule of law on the altar of financial gain.

As Russia appoints a veteran of the war in Syria as its overall military commander in Ukraine, who is expected imminently to launch an offensive in the Donbas industrial area, pundits ask if the tactics that proved successful in Syria could now be employed in Ukraine.

The new appointee is General Alexander Dvornikov, who was sent to Syria in September 2015 when Russia intervened directly in the war to stop a rebel offensive backed by Saudi Arabia which was making ground against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad.

Andrey Kortunov the director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council admitted in an interview to Sky News that the launch of Russia’s military operation caught him by surprise. “I was shocked because for a long time, I thought that a military operation was not feasible. It was not plausible.”[1] In an article posted on the RIAC website, Kortunov listed the negative effects of the invasion:

By all accounts, Russia’s war on Ukraine isn’t going well.

The estimated death toll among Russian soldiers is about the same as Soviet losses for the entire 10-year Afghan war. Russian forces have failed to achieve strategic goals such as taking Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, or the major port city of Mariupol. More than two-thirds of Russia’s battalion tactical groups — its basic fighting units — have been deployed. Its forces have been plagued by major interoperability and communication failures.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he fears Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine and urged the West to impose more severe sanctions against Russia to prevent it from using such weapons.

His comments Monday in his nightly video address came amid unconfirmed reports that chemical weapons have already been used in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol.

A failed military intervention. The genocidal killing of citizens. Economic isolation by the international community. The arrests of anti-war protestors at home and the shuttering of independent media.

Any one of these factors could mark the end of an ordinary political leader. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin has not only weathered these challenges, his popularity has actually risen. According to the independent Levada polling center, Putin has improved his support among Russian citizens from a 69 percent approval rating in January to 83 percent in recent days. That’s significant even when you discount the steady impact of government propaganda on the Russian capacity for critical thinking.