Rusia

The U.S. is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia, along with troops to operate it, after Slovakia sent a long-range, anti-aircraft battery to Ukraine, chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Friday.

Ukrainian officials have been asking other countries to donate the S-300 anti-aircraft system, which is a Soviet Union-era equivalent to the U.S. Patriot missile system, to help beat back the Russian invasion that began Feb. 24.

Russia has tapped a new Ukraine war commander to take centralized control of the next phase of battle after its costly failures in the opening campaign and carnage for Ukrainian civilians. U.S. officials don’t see one man making a difference in Moscow’s prospects.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the essential value of looking ahead to medium- and long-term strategic trends.

In foresight terms, the war in Ukraine is known as a ‘grey rhino’ – a high-probability, high-impact development that took shape over a long period but was largely ignored. Even so, the war has come as a shock, and thrown much prior consensus about international affairs to the wind as officials and observers alike point to the start of a new era. However, there is a danger that imaginative, long-term strategic thinking is forgotten in the face of such a pressing problem. But when a crisis of these proportions emerges, we must make strategy that also looks at the bigger picture.

As Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine accelerated early this year, military planners at NATO began preparing to dispatch scores of fighter jets and surveillance aircraft into the skies near Russia and Ukraine. It was a warning to Moscow not to make the mistake of targeting any member country.

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 42nd day, here is a look at the main developments.

Fighting

Heavy fighting and Russian air strikes continue in Mariupol, according to British military intelligence.
“The humanitarian situation in the city is worsening,” Ukraine’s defence ministry said. “Most of the 160,000 remaining residents have no light, communication, medicine, heat or water. Russian forces have prevented humanitarian access, likely to pressure defenders to surrender.”
The Russian defence ministry says its forces will “liberate” Mariupol from Ukrainian “nationalists”.
US President Joe Biden approved a $100m transfer of Javelin armour-piercing missiles to Ukraine, according to an administration official.
Authorities in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk urged residents to get out “while it is safe” through five “humanitarian corridors”.

The Air Force and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency quietly conducted a successful hypersonic missile test last month.

A defense official told Defense News the Pentagon chose not to announce the test of the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, or HAWC, for about two weeks to avoid inflaming already-delicate tensions with Russia.

Ukraine, the China Challenge, and the Revival of the West

Does anyone have a right to be surprised? A gangster regime in the Kremlin has declared that its security is threatened by a much smaller neighbor—which, the regime claims, is not a truly sovereign country but just a plaything of far more powerful Western states. To make itself more secure, the Kremlin insists, it needs to bite off some of its neighbor’s territory. Negotiations between the two sides break down; Moscow invades.