The sinking of the Russian guided-missile cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea is a significant win for Ukraine but may not have a major impact on the course of the war, analysts said.
Russia’s flagship Black Sea vessel sank on April 14 while being towed to port following an explosion that Ukraine’s military took credit for.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the detonation of ammunition damaged its missile cruiser on board due to a fire, which led to the ship sinking in a storm.
On April 14, Russian troops continued to advance and gain control of most of Mariupol city. Negotiations to reach an immediate and permanent ceasefire are stalled. Below are the latest developments as they happen.
The war in Ukraine that followed the Russian invasion is still in its early stages. While it is too soon to measure the war’s full impact on crises in the Middle East and North Africa, it is clear that the repercussions will be multidimensional. For now, its effects are limited in the military sphere, but noticeable in the political realm as conflict actors reposition themselves vis-à-vis one another and the outside world. For the region’s economies and its already strained social contracts, the consequences may be devastating.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions will likely devastate Russia’s economy. If the country had taken a more productive economic course over the past two decades, it might be looking toward a different future—one in which economic reforms had more tightly integrated Russia with the economically advanced countries, enhanced Russian influence and power, and built global trust. Instead, Russia has cast the West as its enemy, and its influence, power, trust, and reputation are shattered.
Along with China, Iran, and North Korea, Russia is one of a handful of strategic competitors posing a substantial threat to U.S. strategic interests.
Russia has now interfered to some extent in at least three democratic elections in the United States. Russian hackers are probably responsible for the recent SolarWinds attack on U.S. government agency networks. Russia has been aggressively undermining U.S. interests in proxy wars in Syria, Libya, and across the African continent, and it is backing the Taliban against the United States in Afghanistan.
Why the Future of Global Order Hinges on Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long declared that Ukraine has never existed as an independent country. The former Soviet republic is “not even a state,” he said as early as 2008. In a speech on February 21 of this year, he elaborated, arguing that “modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia.” Days later, he ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine. As Russian tanks streamed across the Ukrainian border, Putin seemed to be acting on a sinister, long-held goal: to erase Ukraine from the map of the world.
What It Would Take for a Coup by Kremlin Insiders
Among the many questions surrounding Russia’s disastrous war in Ukraine, one of the most notable concerns the growing tensions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his own security services and military. The war started with Putin holding a televised security council meeting in which he humiliated Sergei Naryshkin, the chief of the foreign intelligence service, for insufficient enthusiasm about the invasion. Two weeks later, with Russian forces facing high casualties and unexpected resistance, Putin placed two generals of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) under house arrest and began an investigation into bad intelligence and the misuse of funds designated for cultivating pro-Kremlin groups in Ukraine. He also forced a deputy commander of the National Guard to resign, apparently because of a criminal investigation. In early April, one of the FSB generals who had been placed under house arrest was transferred to Lefortovo prison.
Ukraine, the China Challenge, and the Revival of the West
Does anyone have a right to be surprised? A gangster regime in the Kremlin has declared that its security is threatened by a much smaller neighbor—which, the regime claims, is not a truly sovereign country but just a plaything of far more powerful Western states. To make itself more secure, the Kremlin insists, it needs to bite off some of its neighbor’s territory. Negotiations between the two sides break down; Moscow invades.
Turkish minister Cavusoglu also raised the question of whether the sanctions against Russia will be lifted in the event that the Kremlin withdraws its soldiers from Ukraine.
On Thursday, Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Turkey will not join the sanctions of the European Union against Russia and will only apply the sanctions determined by the United Nations.
On Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelensky regretted that French President Emmanuel Macron had not used the term “genocide” to describe the consequences of the Russian military operation.
“Macron’s refusal is very hurtful,” the Ukrainian President said, alleging that calling things by their name is necessary to oppose “evil.”