Insanity has often been defined as trying the same thing over and over and getting the same result.
Case in point, Ukraine was seeking NATO membership to bolster its security. This membership would have come at the expense of Russian security, as Russian president Vladimir Putin made clear. To thwart NATO’s (i.e., the US’s) hegemonic ambitions and preserve its own security, Russia felt compelled to address its security concerns. When these Russian security concerns were treated with contempt by the US and Ukraine, Russia took action to protect itself.
Ukraine said on Friday it was trying to break Russia’s siege of Mariupol as fighting raged around the city’s massive steel works and port, and the capital Kyiv was rocked by some of the most powerful explosions in two weeks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the military situation in the south and east of the country was “still very difficult,” while praising the work of his armed forces.
Earlier this week, Swedish media reported that the country’s Prime Minister plans to apply for Sweden to join NATO in June. Finland’s PM, for her part, said Finland would decide on NATO membership “within weeks”.
The possible accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO risks undermining stability in northern Europe, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine “is in many ways bigger than Russia, it’s bigger than Ukraine,” State Department spokesman Ned Price recently declared. “There are principles that are at stake here … Each and every country has a sovereign right to determine its own foreign policy, has a sovereign right to determine for itself with whom it will choose to associate in terms of its alliances, its partnerships and what orientation it wishes to direct its gaze.” The United States, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated last year, does not recognize “spheres of influence,” adding that the concept “should have been retired after World War II.”
As the war in Ukraine unfolds, global uncertainty has surged, according to the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure across 143 countries. This increase is a bad sign for growth. Our research finds that such increases foreshadow significant output declines. Based on our estimates, the rise in uncertainty in the first quarter could be enough to reduce full-year global growth by up to 0.35 percentage point.
Russia’s Defense Ministry warned on April 15 that it will intensify attacks on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, after accusing Ukraine of targeting Russian border towns.
The statement came a day after Russia suffered a symbolic defeat with the loss of its Black Sea fleet flagship, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed his people for their resolve since Russia invaded in February and for making “the most important decision of their life — to fight.”
The sinking of the Russian guided-missile cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea is a significant win for Ukraine but may not have a major impact on the course of the war, analysts said.
Russia’s flagship Black Sea vessel sank on April 14 while being towed to port following an explosion that Ukraine’s military took credit for.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the detonation of ammunition damaged its missile cruiser on board due to a fire, which led to the ship sinking in a storm.
On April 14, Russian troops continued to advance and gain control of most of Mariupol city. Negotiations to reach an immediate and permanent ceasefire are stalled. Below are the latest developments as they happen.
The war in Ukraine that followed the Russian invasion is still in its early stages. While it is too soon to measure the war’s full impact on crises in the Middle East and North Africa, it is clear that the repercussions will be multidimensional. For now, its effects are limited in the military sphere, but noticeable in the political realm as conflict actors reposition themselves vis-à-vis one another and the outside world. For the region’s economies and its already strained social contracts, the consequences may be devastating.