Clinton’s Two Tracks Collide – NATO Enlargement and Russia Engagement
Washington, D.C., November 24, 2021 – The biggest train wreck on the track to NATO expansion in the 1990s – Boris Yeltsin’s “cold peace” blow up at Bill Clinton in Budapest in December 1994 – was the result of “combustible” domestic politics in both the U.S. and Russia, and contradictions in the Clinton attempt to have his cake both ways, expanding NATO and partnering with Russia at the same time, according to newly declassified U.S. documents published today by the National Security Archive.
The Ukrainian president formally presented his plan calling for ramped-up Western military firepower and economic aid and at least a promise of NATO membership to help accelerate the war’s end. The country’s supporters should heed his calls for fortifying Ukraine’s defenses.
With the Russian-Ukrainian war approaching its third anniversary, many Ukrainians and their supporters are feeling dejected because there is no end in sight. More than 300,000 Ukrainians have been killed or wounded (according to U.S. intelligence estimates) and Ukraine is facing painful electricity blackouts during the winter. Far more Russian troops have been killed or wounded—more than 600,000—yet Russian forces keep attacking. They are slowly making gains, at great cost, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian morale is starting to sag and support for Ukraine in the West could start to decline as well, especially if former President Donald Trump wins the White House again in November.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria reflected a more assertive foreign policy. However, its ability to expand its influence to Lebanon and beyond has been restricted.
Russia’s role in the Levant and its involvement in the region’s power politics have undergone a significant shift over the past decade, mainly because of opportunities created by geopolitical and regional developments, including, most critically, the pivoting of U.S. foreign policy away from the Middle East and forever wars. These developments opened the door in 2015 to a more active Russian role in reshaping a region that was in the throes of societal upheavals and expanding conflicts. The United States’ growing disengagement became especially evident following the failure of U.S. former president Barack Obama’s famous red line in preventing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from launching chemical weapons attacks against Syrian citizens in 2013. This created an opportune moment for Russia to launch a new strategic and somewhat pragmatic foreign policy in the Levant, through which it sought to carve out a space for itself in a changing order. Since then, Moscow has acted as a broker of sorts between different actors involved in the Syrian conflict, while balancing out its relationship with each actor in favor of its own national interests. In the process, it has sought to redefine a regional security architecture more amenable to these interests.
As the transatlantic allies adapt to Europe’s new geopolitical realities, maintaining unity against Russia will be critical. Türkiye will have a pivotal role to play in this long-term effort.
During the Cold War, Türkiye presented itself as the steadfast guardian of Europe’s southern flank against the Soviet threat. It stood in lockstep with its Western allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and few, if any, questioned Ankara’s foreign policy trajectory or its commitment to NATO.
Since the beginning of the year, 3,344 foreigners who went to war with Ukraine have received Russian citizenship, the Interior Ministry reported . Kremlin propaganda regularly shows stories about so-called volunteers from “friendly” or “neutral” African countries joining the Russian army. Some of them are recruited at universities, others are lured to the front by deception or even blackmail. The Insider spoke with Africans who went to Russia in search of a better life, but ended up in the trenches, and then in Ukrainian captivity. One, as he claims, was given a military contract under the guise of a worker, the second was promised service as a security guard.
Despite lofty declarations of support, Ukraine’s main backers are increasingly focused on laying the groundwork for Kyiv’s negotiations with Moscow. Instead of ensuring sustainable security in Europe, the compromises under discussion would embolden Russia and China.
A shadowy Russian political operator with close ties to the notorious Wagner Group and its late founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is detained in Chad on unexplained charges, adding a fresh chapter to his long career of mystery and intrigue.
Russian officials and state-controlled media maintain that Maxim Shugaley, who was detained on September 19 along with two other Russians, is an innocent sociologist who was in Chad to deliver humanitarian aid and participate in a pro-Russian event in the capital, N’Djamena.
Russian troops have made significant advances on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction and on the Ugledar salient
Ukrainian Armed Forces units defend on the left bank of the Oskol River and counterattack in Volchansk in the north of the Kharkiv region
In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive has stalled again, having run into previously abandoned Russian fortifications
The interception rate of air targets by Ukrainian air defense forces in October 2024 was 90%
Ukrainian drones hit more distilleries and reached Chechnya for the first time during the war
Z-channels close to aviation report the loss of a Mi-28 helicopter and a Su-34 fighter-bomber in a week
“Spy Dossier” – Russian military personnel in Kursk and Zaporozhye regions have marked themselves with murders of their fellow servicemen
Ukraine to ask Republic of Korea for military assistance in connection with involvement of DPRK troops in combat operations
The situation at the front
This week, the Russian Armed Forces made significant progress in the area from the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction to the southern face of the Ugledar salient . They managed to take the city of Selidovo (as confirmed by DeepState ), and did so relatively quickly, which allowed them to avoid significant destruction. Russian troops broke through to Vishnevoe to the east of the city and tried to advance to Grigorovka and Petrovka. To the south, Russian forces captured the city of Gornyak and neighboring Izmailovka , as well as the village of Kurakhovka . A number of settlements (in particular, Shakhtyorske , Novoukrainka, Bogoyavlenka and Katerinovka ) were captured on the southern face of the Ugledar salient. Apparently, the next goals will be the city of Kurakhovo and the cutting off of the Ugledar salient in general.
The Russian budget has been in deficit since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the draft budget for 2025 also envisages a deficit of 1.1 trillion rubles (0.5% of GDP). For now, the hole is being covered by current borrowing, and the National Welfare Fund (NWF) account looks impressive, but if you take a closer look, in reality, most of it is already illiquid assets that cannot be sold quickly. This means that in the event of a crisis scenario (according to the Central Bank’s calculations, this is a drop in oil prices to $55 per barrel of Brent), the fund will not save the Russian economy and will be exhausted in just a few months.
By the time Burkina Faso’s health ministry declared an epidemic of dengue fever on October 18, 2023, there already were thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was the West African country’s deadliest bout with the disease in years.
Another dangerous outbreak quickly followed: a deluge of Russian disinformation.
