Rusia

Toplines

The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk over efforts to close the wider Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk over the last several days suggest that Russian forces in Pokrovsk are prioritizing the seizure of the settlement itself. They do not appear to be focused on supporting efforts by the 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA, formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) to close the pocket from the north and northeast with a complementary attack from the south at this time.[1] Russian forces may be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk for a number of reasons. Russian leadership may seek to exploit the informational effects that the town’s seizure will likely generate, or may hope that the seizure of Pokrovsk will facilitate a subsequent effort to close the pocket. Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern shoulder of the pocket and a continued Ukrainian presence within Pokrovsk are complicating Russian advances and Russia’s ability to close the pocket, but that fact should not be enough in itself to cause the Russian command to be distracted from the effort from the south. The 51st CAA has also been struggling to advance from the northeast, moving more slowly than the 2nd CAA (Central Military District [CMD]) is moving within Pokrovsk and on the western flank of the pocket.[2] The 51st CAA’s slower tempo could also be contributing to Russia’s apparent and possibly temporary prioritization of the seizure of Pokrovsk. The Russian military command is notably not pursuing the standard measures one would expect in such a battlefield configuration, namely focusing forces and means on completing the encirclement, which would normally be the fastest and least costly way to seize the entire area. The Russian military command can change its focus at any time, however.

American sources claim that Vladimir Putin is offering to renounce his claims to the partially occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in exchange for full control over Donbas, making this a condition for a ceasefire. By the end of the fourth year of the war, Russia has managed to capture only 70% of the Donetsk region. Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk—important industrial centers and well-defended fortress towns—remain under Ukrainian control. The Insider spoke with residents of the unoccupied part of the Donetsk region about how they have endured shelling for three years and how they view the prospects of a “Russian world” coming to power in exchange for an end to the war.

Russia might still fund some less ambitious infrastructure projects in its Far East-Arctic region to keep the economy hot after the war ends, help veterans find work, and encourage settlement there.

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Estonian authorities have detained two suspects linked to Russia’s GRU parcel bomb plot that shook Europe last year, when explosive devices hidden in packages sent from Estonia detonated in multiple countries. The arrests came just as our months-long media investigation into the operation was about to be published.

Teaser: A modest territorial concession, backed by NATO guarantees and Russian investment, could end the stalemate, secure Ukrainian sovereignty, and lay the groundwork for lasting European stability.

Summary: This essay argues that the war in Ukraine will not end through total victory but through pragmatic compromise—a “5% solution.” Ukraine would cede a small portion of its territory in exchange for NATO guarantees, Russian investment in reconstruction, and a shared responsibility for debt. At the same time, the land would become an Economic Cooperation Zone, fostering cooperation instead of permanent division. Drawing on the Finnish precedent and current economic and military realities, the piece presents a realpolitik argument that this deal could preserve Ukrainian sovereignty, stabilize Europe, and transform Moscow from an adversary into a partner.

It’s worth paying much more attention to what Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov actually said than what the Daily Mail sensationally claimed for clickbait. Although the West is exploiting the latter’s fake news for information warfare purposes, astute observers who read between the lines of this official’s words will learn a lot about what’s really going on behind the scenes in Russia nowadays.

The black swan events of NATO jamming causing Russian decoy drones to veer into Poland and an F-16 missing one of its attempted interceptions were therefore exploited by them to spark a crisis that might have led to World War III.