Everything is changing rapidly amid the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes are occurring primarily at the national level, affecting politics, society, and economics, but the pandemic is also having a major impact on international relations. In the case of the European Union (EU) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, state authorities on both sides of the Mediterranean are focusing mainly on the fight against COVID-19 from a public health perspective. As a result, EU-MENA relations are largely on hold at the moment, with very limited bilateral cooperation compared to the pre-pandemic period. This situation, of course, will not last forever. Nevertheless, leaders in the EU and MENA should be prepared for the political and economic consequences, which are significant.
Abstract: Two recent attacks in London, in November 2019 and February 2020, by two convicted terrorists released from prison resulted in a surge of concern about terrorist recidivism. However, statistics and the academic literature suggest that, on the contrary, terrorists are unlikely to relapse into violent extremism. A review of the judiciary files of 557 jihadi terrorist convicts in Belgium, spanning the three decades from 1990, confirms that less than five percent reengaged in terrorist activities. These findings bear significant implications for counterterrorism policies broadly and for sentencing and post-penitentiary measures more specifically.
COVID-19 has shaken the world. It has already led to the loss or devastation of countless lives, while many people in vital professions are working day and night to attend to the sick and stop further spread. Personal and social losses, and the fight to stop these, demand our continued respect and support. At the same time, it is critical to view this pandemic in historical context in order to avoid repeating past mistakes when we plan for the future.
There is surprisingly a certain degree of optimism around at the moment, despite virtually entire populations and economies on lockdown. Although things are really bad for millions right now due to the effects of lockdown, economist Mariana Mazzucato believes that the Covid-19 crisis will shine light on societal and economic systems all across the world, exposing some of the deep-rooted flaws of capitalism.
Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?
I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.
U.S. oil market has crashed. The price of U.S. oil turned negative for the first time in history. The U.S. oil industry is facing a doomsday scenario. Hundreds of U.S. oil companies could go bankrupt. Many U.S. oil companies took on too much debt during the good times. Some of them will not be able to survive this historic downturn.
Civilizationists’ top concern is not battling climate change, building the European Union, or staving off Russian and Chinese aggression; rather, they focus on preserving Europe’s historic civilization of the past two millennia. They worry about Europe becoming an extension of the Middle East or Africa.
Far-right extremists leaked email addresses and passwords belonging to employees of the Gates Foundation, World Health Organization, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and a virology center in Wuhan, China. The data is not a new, but rather a compilation of previous data leaks, meaning that most of these emails and passwords are possibly defunct by now.
Created in 2014, the Wagner Group is a Russian private military company that maintains close ties to the Kremlin and which has reportedly been active in a number of conflict zones, from Ukraine to Libya and beyond.
Last week, German authorities announced the arrests of four alleged Islamic State members. The suspects — identified as Azizjon B., Muhammadali G., Farhodshoh K. and Sunatullokh K. — are accused of planning attacks on U.S. military facilities and personnel. All four are from Tajikistan, a country the former caliphate has long targeted for recruiting purposes. And the recent arrests highlight the global dimension of this Central Asian network.
According to a report by the Associated Press, German prosecutors say the quartet joined the Islamic State in Jan. 2019, well after the peak of the group’s strength. Their ringleader, another Tajik identified as Ravsan B., was jailed in Mar. 2019. But this didn’t stop their plotting. The accused first considered an attack inside their home country, but then shifted their attention to U.S. Air Force bases and “a person they deemed critical of Islam.” Their plot was allegedly financed with $40,000 Ravsan B. received for an aborted assassination in Albania.
The AP reports that the cell members “are alleged to have been in contact with two high-ranking ISIS figures in Syria and Afghanistan.” If this is verified, then ISIS has retained a command and control structure that is still capable of influencing or directing international plots — even though the organization’s plans are routinely foiled.
The role of Tajiks in this purported plot is noteworthy. The Islamic State has had cells in Tajikistan for years, while also recruiting Tajiks to fight in Afghanistan.
On July 29, 2018, five young men, or adolescents, drove their vehicle into foreign cyclists. They then jumped out of the car and started stabbing the cyclists with knives – killing four people, including two Americans. Islamic State members and followers have executed similar operations everywhere from Ohio to London.
Shortly afterwards, Amaq News Agency, the so-called caliphate’s daily reporting shop, released a video of the youth swearing allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi before their hour of attack. The video followed the same format as numerous others produced by Amaq after terrorist operations around the globe.
One year later, in July 2019, a UN expert monitoring team released a report that documented the Islamic State’s efforts to recruit a base of Tajiks in Afghanistan. UN member states identified one Tajik, Sayvaly Shafiev (also known as “Mauaviya”), as a senior member of the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch (ISIS-K). At the time, Shafiev was assessed to be operating in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan, where he led a “contingent of approximately 200 fighters” from Central Asia. Shafiev also served on the ISIS-K’s “leadership body, or shura” council. The UN report’s authors also noted that Shafiev was recruiting “Tajik fighters” while raising “funds using online propaganda in the Tajik language.”
Ethnic Tajiks have carried out terrorist operations inside Afghanistan. For instance, on Mar. 6 of this year, ISIS-K assaulted a memorial service in Kabul for Abdul Ali Mazari, an ethnic Hazara leader who was killed by the Taliban in 1995. Dozens were killed or wounded in the terrorist attack. ISIS-K identified one of the two terrorists responsible as Ahmad al-Tajiki – an alias indicating his Tajik nationality.
