Orientul Mijlociu

The coalition between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Arab tribes in Deir ez Zor is fracturing amid clashes over long-standing grievances. The SDF’s response to the clashes very likely will undermine its ability to maintain control in the province for at least the next several months. The SDF and the Deir ez Zor Military Council (DMC) began fighting after the SDF arrested the DMC commander on August 27. The conflict rapidly expanded after August 30, as other tribes joined the fighting driven by long-running grievances against the SDF.[1] These grievances included limited reconstruction in the Arab areas, repeated SDF abuses of the local populations, and a lack of representative Arab leadership.[2] The tribes captured the southern areas of SDF-administered Deir ez Zor province by September 2.[3] The SDF recaptured the territory on September 10 by force and through actions that local media portrayed as abuses. Anti-SDF tribal fighters began conducting hit-and-run insurgent attacks on September 6, meaning anti-SDF forces are contesting the SDF’s control of the population in Deir ez Zor. CTP defines control as “uncontested physical or psychological pressure to ensure that individuals or groups respond as directed.”[4] The SDF has not taken steps to address the tribes’ grievances as of September 14.[5]

Key Takeaways

Turkey has conducted a series of airstrikes in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the United States’ sole security partner in the country—since October 5. These attacks are placing significant pressure on the SDF, which, in turn, puts at risk the US mission to defeat ISIS.
Iran has demanded that the Iraqi central government extradite members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to Iran, according to independent Iraqi outlet Al Mada. Such a demand would appear to violate international law.

Ever wondered why the Islamic world appears divided on the issue of Palestine? To unravel this intricate dilemma, I’ve integrated three levels of foreign policy analysis with the constructivist perspective of international relations. The three levels involve examining internal factors such as political structures, leadership dynamics, and public sentiment, providing insights into how these elements shape a nation’s approach to foreign policy.

Clashes in Eastern Syria curiously coincided with the claims of an impending American military operation Iyad al-Jaafari writes in Syria TV.

The Iranian response to the ongoing protests in As-Suweida, which could potentially spread across Syria, stands in contrast to their actions during the early stages of the 2011 revolution. This time, the Iranian intervention is more immediate and proactive, signalling an attempt to anticipate and shape developments on the ground by initiating a new front of conflict in the eastern part of the country. This indicates that the “Iranian axis” recognizes the gravity of the situation in Syria and fears the prospect of entering into a protracted, costly, and politically challenging war to rescue the Assad regime once again.

From his military coup in 1970 until his death in 2000, Hafez al-Assad failed to appreciate Syria’s diverse regions, according to Bassam Youssef for Syria TV.

Deir-ez-Zor has endured significant suffering under the rule of the Baath regime, particularly during the Assad family’s leadership. Apart from intentional marginalization, impoverishment, and resource exploitation, Hafez al-Assad perpetrated a grave injustice by eroding the region’s values, ethics, and traditions, while elevating those loyal to him and suppressing its male population.

It is evident that the Iranian axis is not willing to sacrifice the Syrian regime to protect the Hamas movement, according to Ibrahim Rayhan in Syria TV.

Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon were featured prominently in Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech last Friday, but the Syrian regime was notably absent.

His military career was marred by allegations of involvement in crimes and massacres in areas such as Daraa.

General Ghassan Tarraf, the newly appointed Commander of the Republican Guard, has a complex and controversial history within the Syrian conflict.

Sunday saw Israeli airstrikes rendering Damascus airport non-operational, leading to the redirection of incoming flights, according to both the Syrian army and a pro-government newspaper. Simultaneously, Syrian government forces shelled a northwestern village on Saturday, resulting in the tragic death of at least 10 people, including seven children who were picking olives. Additionally, the Fourth Division of the Syrian government forces dispatched military reinforcements to its posts in the town of al-Boukamal in the eastern countryside of Deir-ez-Zor on Saturday.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel killing at least 1,200 people and kidnapping at least 240 men, women, and children. In response, Israel declared war on Hamas and launched a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders watched the attack unfold from Haniyeh’s office in Doha, Qatar. Qatar joined with Saudi Arabia and Iran in blaming Israel for the October 7 Hamas attack. According to a Qatari government statement, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs held Israel “solely responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, the latest of which was the repeated incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli police.” That night, Qatari officials claimed they had begun mediation talks to convince Hamas to release captive women and children for Palestinian security prisoners in Israel. Israel denied negotiations were underway. On October 20, Hamas freed two hostages—an American mother and daughter pair—after Qatari intervention. Hamas said it released the hostages for “humanitarian reasons.” On October 24, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani accused Israel of receiving an “unconditional green light and free license to kill” in Gaza. As of November 14, Hamas had released four hostages—two Americans and two Israelis—because of Qatari mediation. That day, the Qatari government renewed its call on Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement on releasing hostages, but Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Majed bin Mohammed al-Ansari also blamed the “deteriorating” situation in Gaza for hindering mediation efforts. (Sources: Hamas Telegram Channel, Associated Press, Reuters, Daily Mail, Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hill, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, NPR, NPR, Agence France-Presse)

On November 21, 2023, the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar published an article titled, “Sanaa Warns the Enemy And Allies: The Price Of Escalation Is a Complete Blockade of Navigation.” According to the article, the Defense Ministry threatened that any action against Yemen as a result of the November 19 takeover of the shipping vessel, Galaxy Leader, in the Red Sea would lead to a complete blockade of the Red Sea and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait shipping lane.[1]