Orientul Mijlociu

Given that the U.S. presence is vital for the survival of the AANES, the prospect of withdrawal leaves the entire issue uncertain Akil Mahfouz writes in Athr Press.

While the Autonomous Administration and the SDF exert significant control in eastern Syria, the region faces persistent high levels of perceived threats. The presence of the United States, supporting the Autonomous Administration and opposing Turkey, contributes to this tension. There’s an American interest in forming militias from local tribes, potentially serving as a “partial replacement” along the Euphrates line and the Syria-Iraq border. Forecasts suggest a greater likelihood of violence than resolution in eastern Syria, intensifying tensions between the SDF and Arab tribes in the Euphrates line.

The Autonomous Administration has unveiled a new social contract (constitution) that introduces several contentious principles. Foremost among them is the decision to rename the Syrian state as the Democratic Republic, departing from the previous designation of the Syrian Arab Republic, and a restructuring of the government’s form.

With their uncritical support of Israel, Western leaders have kickstarted the same polarization in Muslim societies that led to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and the birth of violent Islamic fundamentalism.

The Western world is unequivocal in its support of Israel in the ongoing Gaza conflict. This much has been clearly demonstrated, when Western political leaders started parading the corridors of power in Israeli capital Tel Aviv after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli territory that according to Israeli claims, killed more than 1,400 people. A prolonged conflict in Gaza and the larger Middle East involving other regional countries apart from Israel and Palestine could be devastating for western European countries from two perspectives. Firstly, a prolonged conflict, especially involving Iran, could generate a refugee crisis with Southern European countries with coastlines on the Mediterranean Sea receiving most of the refugees from the Arab world. Secondly, as feared by some western experts, it could also lead to terror attacks in Europe.

On Oct. 19, the Pentagon press secretary, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia targeted the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the Red Sea. The USS Carney reportedly intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones without sustaining any damage or casualties. Although the Houthis have yet to claim responsibility for the attack, the drones and missiles were likely fired from north-western, Houthi-held positions in Hodeida and Hajjah governorates on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and were headed “north” without an established target at the time of reporting. Since September, the Houthis have reportedly intensified their naval military training in al-Luhayya district in northern Hodeida and brought in new medium and heavy weapons capabilities, suggesting that they intend to launch an attack on strategic maritime and trade routes, a senior military official told the author.

With the war in Gaza now in its third month, there are ongoing fears that the conflict may spill over, particularly given the risk of escalation involving Iran’s network of proxies. Between Oct. 18 and Dec. 11, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claim to have launched 10 “large batches” of missiles and drones into Israel, with some falling or getting intercepted in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, reportedly without causing any damage or casualties. The Houthis also performed an unprecedented helicopter-landing hijack — emulating tactics used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — of an Israel-linked commercial vessel leased to Japan, on Nov. 19, in violation of international maritime law. On Dec. 3, the group attacked three commercial vessels in the Red Sea, with ties to 14 different nations, using anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones. The Houthis upped the ante further on Dec. 8, threatening to block all ships sailing to Israel, regardless of nationality, until Gaza receives humanitarian aid, and launched another missile attack on a Norwegian-flagged tanker on Dec. 12

A brief look back at 2023: From normalization to escalation in the Middle East

A ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels slammed into a cargo ship Friday in the Red Sea near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, following another attack only hours earlier that struck a separate vessel, authorities said.

The missile attack on the MSC Palatium III and the earlier assault on the Al Jasrah escalate a maritime campaign by the Iranian-backed Houthis. The attacks also endanger ships traveling through a vital corridor for cargo and energy shipments for both Europe and Asia from the Suez Canal out to the Indian Ocean.

The Houthis have been fortunate to have, as a powerful patron and sponsor, Iran. Their backers in Tehran will not let them run out of ammunition and the Biden administration will not let the Iranian regime run out of funds.

Hamas is nearing its breaking point in northern Gaza as Israeli forces surround its last two strongholds there and takes out local commanders, Israel said Monday.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed that Israel Defense Forces were “on the verge of dismantling” the remaining Palestinian terror strongholds in Jabalya and Shejaiya after mass surrenders in the area, CNN reports.

Following the October 7 Hamas attacks, residents along Israel’s northern border grow increasingly anxious over the possibility of a similar assault by Hezbollah.

Gil Sagi is an Israeli dairy farmer living on a kibbutz in northern Israel. Since the beginning of Israel’s war with Hamas, his community, along with others, has been under fire from the Hezbollah terrorist organization. His wife is with him, among the few who stayed on the kibbutz, as many thousands of residents from the area have been evacuated. His three children and two grandchildren left the area a few days after the war began, scattering across Israel to wait for quieter times.