US Threat Report: Washington facing ‘critical years’ in Great Power competition

Unlike in previous years, the 2023 annual US Threat Assessment Report views West Asia through the prism of a Great Power competition that threatens to nudge the world into a post-US multipolar order.

On 8 March, 2023, the US Director of National Intelligence released the Annual Threat Assessment Report, which evaluates worldwide threats to US national security, including cyber and technological threats, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, crime, environmental, and natural resources issues.

The new Saudi pax: Riyadh also resumes relations with Assad’s Syria. “It’s a message of challenge to the US”

After Tehran , Damascus : according to Saudi state TV Al Ekhbariya , citing sources in the Foreign Ministry , the al-Saud monarchy is in the process of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Bashar Al Assad ‘s Syria , a few days after the news of a similar rapprochement between Riyadh and Iran , ultimately mediated by China . A move that was eagerly awaited in the last week – after the news of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabiaand Iran, an ally of Syria – something unthinkable until a couple of years ago, when, with Trump in the White House , on the horizon for Riyadh there seemed to be the completion of normalization with Israel and a further stiffening vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic and its partner.

Implications of Escalating U.S. Clashes with Iran-Backed Forces in Syria

  • The late March clashes between U.S. and Iran-backed militia forces in eastern Syria upended U.S. hopes that an Iran-Saudi rapprochement would usher in a period of regional stability and raised the potential for expanded U.S.-Iran hostilities.
  • Iran’s alignment with Russia, and the willingness of the Arab Gulf states to engage with Tehran, have emboldened Iran’s leadership to assert Iran’s regional influence.
  • The clashes in eastern Syria will not cause the United States to end the anti-Islamic State mission in Syria and Iraq but might set back U.S. and international hopes for a political solution to the long-running conflict in Yemen.
  • Israeli leaders will view the U.S.-Iran clashes in Syria as justification for escalating Israeli air operations against Iran-linked military infrastructure and militia positions in Syria, or possibly to attack inside Iran.

Europe: Jihadists Posing as Migrants
“More than 50,000 jihadists are now living in Europe.”

More than 50,000 jihadists are now living in Europe. — Gilles de Kerchove, EU Counterterrorism Coordinator.

Europol, the European police office, has identified at least 30,000 active jihadist websites, but EU legislation no longer requires internet service providers to collect and preserve metadata — including data on the location of jihadists — from their customers due to privacy concerns. De Kerchove said this was hindering the ability of police to identify and deter jihadists.

ISIS cells continue to spread terror in northeast Syria

These posters reportedly contain threats of murder against men and women, including accusations of failing to pay “zakat” (Islamic tax) and other charges.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) war monitor on Tuesday reported that ISIS cells in the Arab-majority Deir ez-Zor province are spreading fear among civilians by hanging posters on walls, mosques, and electricity poles.

Senate Votes to Repeal Iraq War Authorizations

The Senate voted on Wednesday to advance a bill that would repeal the authorizations for combat operations in Iraq.

The measure to repeal the authorizations from 1991 and 2002 passed the Senate in a 66–30 vote with 18 Republicans and all present Democrats supporting the measure. It now heads to the GOP-controlled House where its future is uncertain. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) has said he is open to supporting a repeal after previously opposing it, according to the Associated Press.

A Fractured Border: Syria, Türkiye, and Cantonization

Several factors related to the civil war in Syria have engendered the cantonization of the country’s north. From east to west, five northern border regions are to various degrees self-governing, though four are backed by, and even dependent on, Türkiye. Ongoing indirect negotiations between Türkiye and Syria—which were previously at loggerheads—may result in an adjustment of the boundaries of these cantons, but will not alter, let alone reverse, the phenomenon of cantonization.