Orientul Mijlociu

Nearly a year on from Hamas’ Oct. 7 offensive against Israel, Israel’s strategic environment — and indeed the strategic landscape of the wider Middle East — has changed profoundly. Hamas’ astounding surprise attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing war has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators. One key takeaway is that recent events have spotlighted the dangers a regional war would pose, thereby underscoring the importance of diplomacy. As such, Israel and the United States must prioritize a settlement of the related Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

When the guns eventually fall silent in Gaza, Israelis and Palestinians will confront a decades-old reality that cannot be overcome by violence and political half-measures. Both Jews and Palestinians will continue to assert privileged ownership of Palestine, citing centuries of history, the merits of which will never be settled conclusively by historians, let alone by the two principals. The question, therefore, is not whether Jews and Palestinians will continue living cheek by jowl, but how. Will they do so amid endless spasms of bloodletting or a coexistence created by a negotiated settlement that reconciles Israel’s need for security with Palestinians’ desire for statehood?

Israel prefers hardline leaders to maintain a monolithic view of the enemy. Its assassination in Tehran now forces the reformist Pezeshkian into a corner.

On July 5, Masoud Pezeshkian won the run-off elections in Iran to replace Ebrahim Raisi as president of the Islamic Republic, after the latter’s death in a helicopter crash in May. During the short campaign, Pezeshkian sought to win over voters with the basic platform of his reformist camp: restarting negotiations with the West to lift sanctions, building the economy, fighting poverty, and investing in housing, healthcare, welfare, and civil society. He was officially sworn in as president at the end of the month.

Since October 7, my life has been split between two parallel realms. In the first, I go about my daily life as usual here in Turkey, where I work, visit my friends, do my routine shopping, and take care of my immediate family. In the second realm, I am immersed in the daily reports of the death, destruction, displacement, and fear that my family, friends, and neighbors are enduring in Gaza, and try to help them as much as possible.

The ongoing instability in Syria remains a significant concern for regional and international actors, as multiple reports highlight the persistent threat of the Islamic State (ISIS) and the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. According to a recent Wall Street Journal exclusive, U.S. forces are engaged in a covert campaign to contain an ISIS resurgence in areas previously cleared of the group. This effort includes airstrikes, surveillance, and targeted missions against ISIS leaders, as the group attempts to rebuild its strength in the Syrian desert. Meanwhile, U.S.-backed Syrian forces have escalated their operations in eastern Syria, clashing with pro-government militias in a region already fraught with tension. Amid these developments, Turkey has outlined strict conditions for its potential withdrawal from northern Syria, linking it to constitutional reforms and security guarantees, while Jordan faces funding challenges in its ongoing response to the Syrian crisis. In contrast, Mosul’s Governor has dismissed rumors of security deterioration along the Iraq-Syria border, asserting that the area remains firmly under control. These reports underscore the enduring complexity and volatility of the Syrian conflict, with implications that stretch far beyond the region.

As the Syrian conflict continues to unfold, various developments have emerged in recent weeks. A top Iranian military adviser has died from injuries sustained in a recent airstrike in Syria, while Syrian refugees in Gaza struggle to survive amidst the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Meanwhile, Turkey and Syria are navigating a delicate diplomatic dance, with complex geopolitical influences and uncertainties at play. Additionally, a Pakistani organization is building a settlement in Syria’s Afrin region, raising concerns about land ownership, displacement, and environmental impact. These stories highlight the complex and ever-changing landscape of the Syrian conflict, with multiple actors and interests at play.

A senior defence official said Israeli soldiers did not do anything to stop a settler attack on Jit, which resulted in the killing of a Palestinian man.

Israeli army reservists stood by as dozens of armed Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank attacked Palestinian residents and torched their homes and cars, a preliminary investigation by Israel has revealed.

Iran has made no secret of the immense importance it places on the US protests – as a way to export its Islamic Revolution. They have been making it clear that the regime sees the protesters at US campuses as an Iranian fifth column in America to be used in the future….

According to the analysts, “60 percent of Pro-Palestine campus protestors were not authentic online users….” — XPOZ analyst, iranintel.com, August 2, 2024.

Iran has made no secret of the immense importance it places on the US protests – as a way to export its Islamic Revolution. They have been making it clear that the regime sees the protesters at US campuses as an Iranian fifth column in America to be used in the future….

Analysis: Yahya Sinwar’s appointment as leader centres Hamas’ political and military decision-making in the Gaza Strip while strengthening ties with Iran.

Hamas’ decision to name Yahya Sinwar, a long-time military hardliner, as its new political chief will centre the group’s decision-making in embattled Gaza, shore up the group’s ties with its primary backer Iran, and leave the prospects for a desperately needed ceasefire uncertain, political analysts have told The New Arab.