Orientul Mijlociu

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is an Iraqi state security service that Iran has infiltrated and uses to wield significant influence in Iraq. Iran’s cooptation of the PMF enables Tehran to pursue its objectives in Iraq while obfuscating its actual involvement in Iraqi internal affairs. Understanding how Iranian leaders wield direct and indirect influence over this significant component of the Iraqi security sector is crucial as the United States considers how to deter Iranian-backed Iraqi militias from attacking US forces in Iraq and Syria.

The “Salvation” government operating in the city of Idlib issued a decision to create an administration called the “Public Security Administration” that operates under the supervision of the Ministry of Interior, in the wake of the demonstrations that criticized the “General Security Service” in Idlib.

Key points

1. The war between Israel and Hamas has increased the threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East, particularly for the 3,400 personnel in Syria and Iraq. Since October 7, 2023, dozens of U.S. troops have been injured in attacks perpetrated by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries, at times resulting in U.S. retaliatory strikes.
2. Defensive measures and luck have prevented U.S. fatalities thus far. But U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are at significant risk as long as they remain deployed there.
3. If a U.S. ground presence served a core security interest, that risk might be reasonable. But there is no good reason to risk U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS’s capabilities have been degraded, capable local actors eagerly hunt the group’s remnants, and the United States can still strike from long distance, if necessary, without local bases.
4. Instead of enhancing U.S. security, the U.S. force presence in Syria and Iraq pointlessly risks war with Iran. Sending additional troops to the Middle East compounds the problem and grants U.S. adversaries in the region added leverage by giving them the ability to threaten U.S. forces.
5. The added danger to U.S. forces is one more reason to withdraw from Syria and Iraq as a step toward de-prioritizing the Middle East more generally.

The Israel-Hamas war increases the danger to U.S. troops

Last week, five British special forces soldiers were arrested for alleged war crimes during their deployment in Syria two years ago.

They stand accused of using excessive force in the killing of a suspected militant, found with a suicide vest nearby, although the suspect was reportedly not wearing it when killed. The five soldiers deny these charges, saying they believed he posed a genuine threat.

The trial of Adnan Ćatić for allegedly organizing a terrorist group and engaging in foreign battlefield activities commenced following the reading of the indictment and the opening statement by the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Concurrently, on Wednesday, 6 February, Syrian opposition activist and researcher Sheikh Jumaa Lehib received a deportation order from Lebanon to Syria amidst an intensified crackdown on Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The Iranian regime, which… has been calling for “Death to America,” now has ballistic missiles which it says can reach the US, and claims to have a hypersonic missile that, according to one report, “Can Destroy US In 40 sec.”

Venezuela appears to have willingly embraced Iran’s overtures.

Latest Developments

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed on March 18 that Israeli forces killed Marwan Issa, deputy chief of Hamas military operations, in an airstrike last week. Issa, 59, constitutes one of the most senior Hamas figures killed during the more than five-month-old war in Gaza. Issa, also known as Abu al-Baraa, has acted as a liaison between Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian terrorist group’s top leader in Gaza. Issa was also among the architects of the October 7 cross-border rampage by Hamas that triggered the Gaza war. The State Department added Issa to its list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists in 2019.

Executive Summary

The United States is losing the war against an enemy it has misunderstood for decades. Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), and the Salafi-jihadi groups that threaten the United States are stronger, smarter, and more resilient than they were on September 11, 2001. Americans have confused tactical successes on the battlefield against ISIS and al Qaeda with progress in this war.

Iran has a well-documented history of allegations regarding the use of child soldiers, a practice
dating back to the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 and persisting thereafter. According to the International
Committee of the Red Cross, a significant portion, approximately 10%, of Iranian prisoners in Iraq
were minors.1 During the Iran-Iraq conflict, children as young as nine were coerced into assisting
in mine-clearing efforts, frequently restrained together by ropes to prevent escape.

The Iranian presence in Syria has always been a source of concern at a regional level, for Arab countries on the one hand, and for Israel on the other. If the partial Arab severance of relations with al-Assad has pushed the issue of Iranian presence off the negotiation table, this does not reflect a resignation to Tehran’s influence in Damascus, contrary to the vision presented by the Syrian regime president, Bashar al-Assad, in March 2023 (before returning to the Arab League).