A drone attack that killed three American troops and wounded at least 34 more at a base in Jordan has increased fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East – and the possibility that the U.S. may be further drawn into the fighting.
An oil tanker operated on behalf of Trafigura was struck by a missile on Friday after transiting the Red Sea, a company spokesperson told CNBC in statement.
The Marlin Luanda, a petroleum products tanker vessel, was struck by the missile in the Gulf of Aden. Firefighting equipment on board is being used to suppress a fire in one of the cargo tanks, the spokesperson said.
Following is the December 2023 installment of “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency,” a monthly chronicle of attacks by the terrorist group ISIS in central Syria. A review of developments throughout 2022 and 2021 can be found here and here. The January 2023 edition of ISIS Redux can be found here, February’s here, March’s here, April’s here, May’s here, June’s here, July’s here, August’s here, September’s here, October’s here, and November’s here. A full background and analysis of ISIS’s resurgence in Syria, including the methodology used to collect this data, can also be explored here, here, and here.
The Houthis Have Become Key Partners in Tehran’s Quest for Regional Dominance
Since November, the Red Sea has become the site of escalating attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement, the armed group that governs most of Yemen’s population. These assaults, which the Houthi rebels say are designed to pressure Israel to end the war in Gaza, mark the emergence of a new conflict zone in the already volatile Middle East. By effectively closing the sea to cargo ships, the strikes have disrupted global trade and earned the Houthis unprecedented international attention.
How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum
A Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat
Many held high hopes for Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive. Previous Ukrainian successes at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson encouraged expectations that a new effort, reinforced with new Western equipment and training, might rupture Russian defenses on a larger scale and sever the Russian land bridge to Crimea. If it did, the thinking went, the resulting threat to Crimea might persuade Putin to end the war.
Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Yemeni-Houthi Ansar Allah Political Bureau said on a January 24, 2024 show on Al-Araby TV (Qatar) on January 24, 2024 that his movement does not support the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. He said that his movement is a “moral movement,” therefore despite the Houthi’s good relations with Russia, the Ukrainian government’s support of the “aggression” against Yemen in 2015, the Ukrainian government being a “coup” government, and its support of the aggression against Gaza, the Houthis distinguish between the Ukrainian people and its government. Al-Bukhaiti continued to say that it is the United States that is responsible for the war in Ukraine, because it has been seeking to expand NATO.
Iraqi MP and Hizbullah Brigades in Iraq (Kata’ib Hizbullah) official Hussain Mouanes discussed on a January 26, 2024 show on Mayadeen TV (Lebanon) a recent announcement that he has been put on the U.S. Treasury sanctions list. He said that he is proud to be on the sanctions list and that he has nothing to hide. Mouanes said that the U.S. forces must be expelled from Iraq “one way or another.” He further said that their presence in Iraq constitutes a threat. On January 22, the U.S. Treasury announced that it has sanctioned three leaders of Katai’b Hizbullah, which it referred to as “one of the IRGC-QF’s [Iranian Revolutionary Guards – Qods Force] main Iran-aligned militias in Iraq.”
The recent announcement of an assassination of the commander of the Security Belt forces (in South Yemen), Brigadier General Abdul Latif Al-Sayed, by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is yet another reminder that not only have the security and terrorism concerns in South Yemen have not been put to rest, but that growing sectarianism and political battles over the direction and future of this area plays into the hands of the international terrorist organizations. AQAP took credit for the attack, which also killed several other leaders, according to Aden Al Ghad. Yemen security researcher Elisabeth Kendall pointed out that Abdul Latif Al-Sayed had a falling out with Al Qaeda in 2011, and since then had been a repeat target of assassination attempts.
The course of events will affect Washington’s credibility as a stabilising force in the Middle East as it comes under pressure from allies and adversaries, analysts say
The US could find itself dragged into another Middle Eastern war as the strikes could trigger more involvement from the region’s armed groups, they add
Iran’s actions against commercial shipping and efforts to support its “axis of resistance” allies are increasing the prospects for direct US-Iran armed conflict.
Iran and the United States appear to be inching closer toward open warfare, unintentionally, even as officials on both sides try to avoid a broader armed conflict in the region.
Iran and its regional allies appear to be locked into hardline stances in favor of attacking U.S. and allied interests, and U.S. officials are under pressure to respond forcefully.