La junte militaire malienne saborde ses partenariats sécuritaires, malgré la déferlante de la violence des militants

La junte militaire malienne a aliéné ses partenaires sécuritaires régionaux et internationaux alors même que la violence des groupes islamistes militants est en plein essor, provoquant un pic dans les décès de civils.

Depuis sa prise du pouvoir en août 2020, la junte militaire malienne a aliéné ses partenaires sécuritaires régionaux et internationaux et poursuivi une stratégie qui n’a fait qu’exacerber la violence des militants islamistes qui menacent le pays et accélérer la crise sécuritaire au Sahel.

Malian Military Junta Scuttles Security Partnerships while Militant Violence Surges

The military junta in Mali has alienated regional and international security partners amid escalating violence by militant Islamist groups, leading to a spike in civilian fatalities.

Since taking power in August 2020, the military junta in Mali has alienated its regional and international security partners and pursued a strategy that has exacerbated the militant Islamist violence threatening the country, thereby accelerating the security crisis in the Sahel.

Libyan ceasefire agreement faces hurdles due to foreign intervention

The signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement between Libya’s warring factions on October 23 was widely marketed as a watershed moment that would redress the country’s spiraling trajectory. Paving the way for the United Nations-hosted Libyan Political Dialogue Forum to relaunch on October 26, the agreement was also the building block for the first United Nations-mediated meeting inside Libya in years. On November 1, the Joint Military Commission (5+5)—military representatives of the Eastern-based Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) and the Government of National Accord, who are aligned with General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA)—met in the border town of Ghadames to discuss ways to solidify their bare-boned ceasefire agreement. Yet, the international exhilaration that accompanied the launch of these talks obfuscates the very real possibility of a relapse into violent conflict. There are legitimate doubts over the fealty of local and international stakeholders—such as Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates—to the security track’s basic conditions. There is also the overhanging question as to whether the political and economic tracks complementing this very agreement are setting it up for failure by design.

For Turkey, the Libyan conflict and the eastern Mediterranean are inextricably linked

On September 3, the United Nations warned that war-torn Libya is at a “decisive turning point,” with weapons from foreign backers pouring into both sides of the conflict. The main foreign protagonists in the Libyan conflict are split into two camps. In one camp is Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt, who have been the principal financial and military backers of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA). In the opposing camp is Turkey and Qatar, who back the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).

Libya’s crisis is a tough puzzle to solve for Egypt

The new Turkish assertiveness in Libya and Libya National Army (LNA) General Khalifa Haftar’s strategic retreat from the Western part of the country have created a new equilibrium in the conflict. This is a potential watershed moment that could lead Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Russia to rethink their support for Haftar and prepare a possible compromise over Libya, especially given the pronunciation of the so-called Cairo Declaration on June 6, 2020. In fact, Haftar is gradually losing internal and external support—from within his own forces to Egypt and the UAE—to the point that no one will likely bet on him again. In this fluid scenario, neighboring Egypt, which has emboldened Haftar since 2014, may play an important new role in order to protect its specific foreign and domestic interests in Libya.