From EU aspirations to political turmoil
Georgia’s relations with the West have seen better days. The country has recently found itself embroiled in controversy and diplomatic tensions, stemming from the passage of a controversial “foreign influence” law. This law has had far-reaching consequences, including the suspension of Georgia’s EU membership bid and the annulment of Western financial aid and military drills.
Political challenges among NATO members, the spectre of a second Trump presidency, and a bleaker military situation in Ukraine – compared to the expectations at the 2023 Vilnius Summit for the Ukrainian counteroffensive – made Washington feel like a ‘pre-storm summit’.
In recent days, widespread protests have erupted across many Turkish-controlled towns and cities in the countryside to the north of Aleppo and around Idlib. Some protests have escalated into violence, as clashes have broken out between local armed groups and Turkish forces, resulting in multiple casualties among both protesters and Turkish soldiers. The unrest followed racist attacks against Syrians that started in the Turkish city of Kayseri on June 30, destroying several Syrians’ properties.
INTRODUCTION
At a time when there is widespread anxiety around the world about the fate of democracy but not enough debate on the future of autocracy, Turkey presents an interesting case for scholars and policy-makers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spent two decades in power taking steps to build his neman rule. 2023 was the year when many thought it would finally come to an end. The government’s poor response to the devastating earthquake in February 2023 and Turkey’s mounting economic problems strengthened popular discontent with Erdoğan’s rule. Yet he still managed to win another term as president in the May 2023 elections thanks to the disarray among the six-party opposition coalition and its uninspiring candidate.
An incident in the central Anatolian city of Kayseri last week sparked a wave of anti-Syrian attacks across Turkey, just as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s normalisation efforts with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad reach a pivotal point.
This year marks the 10-year anniversary of ISIS’ capture of a third of Iraqi and Syrian territory and genocide against the Ezidis (Yazidis) and other communities. Supported by the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Iraq declared military victory over the terrorist group in December 2017 and has significantly reduced and controlled the threat ever since. Significant progress has also been made in the recovery and stabilization process, with the successful return to their areas of origin of some five million of the six million Iraqis internally displaced by the conflict and the rebuilding of many of the regions that the conflict devastated.
Haiti’s new interim government faces immense challenges, but none are as urgent as breaking the stranglehold that gangs have over the country’s capital, Port au Prince. Force alone will not bring peace, even with the arrival of the modestly-sized and Kenyan-led multinational security support mission. The country instead requires creative, whole-of-society — not just whole-of-government — mechanisms to divert gang members from crime and violence as part of a comprehensive counter-gang strategy.
In a clear challenge to regime hardliners, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist and cardiac surgeon, won Iran’s snap presidential election on July 5. The elections were called after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19. The runoff had been considered a tight race, but Pezeshkian won decisively with almost three million more votes than Saeed Jalili, a hardliner and former nuclear negotiator. Due to take office in August, Pezeshkian, a former deputy speaker of parliament and health minister, will take power as Iran’s government faces legitimacy challenges amid an economic crisis. Beyond these domestic challenges, Iran’s new president will have to navigate the evolving regional fallout from the war in Gaza.
The decisions taken as the NATO summit in Washington closed Thursday show the NATO imperialist powers are planning direct military intervention against nuclear-armed Russia. The day before, the NATO alliance had announced the creation of an office in Ukraine and of a NATO command in Germany to coordinate the war offensive against Russia.
As expected, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a majority in the UK General Election on 4 July, marking the collapse of the Conservative Party after 14 years in government.
Labour’s majority in parliament, with 411 seats out of 650, means the party will have significant influence over parliamentary decisions going forward.