Month: April 2023

Israel ‘coordinates closely’ with extremists to carry out Damascus strikes: Syria

Israeli involvement in the Syrian war on the side of the extremist opposition has been documented thoroughly over the years

In a statement on 31 March condemning Israel’s airstrikes on Damascus, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said that Israel’s continuous attacks against the country are indicative of their close level of coordination with extremist militants.

Russia asks Iraq to reopen air corridor to Syria

Russia asked Iraq’s government to reopen its airspace to the Russian military, which wants to transport troops and equipment to its bases in eastern Syria, Middle East Eye (MEE) reported on 29 March.

According to a diplomat and Iraqi officials who spoke with MEE, the Russian-Syrian air corridor through Iraqi airspace is the shortest and least costly route for Moscow, following Turkiye’s closure of its airspace to Russian civil and military flights in April last year.

US Threat Report: Washington facing ‘critical years’ in Great Power competition

Unlike in previous years, the 2023 annual US Threat Assessment Report views West Asia through the prism of a Great Power competition that threatens to nudge the world into a post-US multipolar order.

On 8 March, 2023, the US Director of National Intelligence released the Annual Threat Assessment Report, which evaluates worldwide threats to US national security, including cyber and technological threats, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, crime, environmental, and natural resources issues.

The Terrorism Landscape Continues to Evolve

  • Counterterrorism has become a backburner issue amid great power conflict, to the chagrin of many intelligence and homeland security professionals tasked with maintaining vigilance in the face of an ever-evolving threat.
  • The challenge most familiar to the United States and its allies, Salafi jihadist terrorism, now manifests in different forms and different locales, notably concentrated in the Sahel now.
  • Without strong and inspirational leadership, the “Islamic State” brand has become watered down, with affiliate groups and IS branches pursuing more narrow agendas embedded in more local and regional conflicts.
  • Beyond Salafi-jihadists, the terrorism landscape is far more diverse than in recent years, with threats posed by groups motivated by different ideologies, including far-right extremists and those related to Iran, for example.

Islamic State Khorasan Remains a Stubborn Threat in Afghanistan

  • General Michael Kurilla, head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), has suggested that at its current trajectory, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) would be able to conduct external operations within approximately six months.
  • Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, counterterrorism analysts have warned about the growing threat of ISK, especially in light of the U.S. troop withdrawal and limited human intelligence assets in areas where ISK and other terrorist groups operate.
  • ISK has been diversifying its target set in Afghanistan over the past year, attacking Pakistani, Chinese, and Russian targets inside the country.
  • Globally, Islamic State is dedicating more resources to its affiliates in Afghanistan and Africa, especially as its core group comes under intense assault in Syria, while some franchises that were formerly prominent continue to ebb, such as those in Southeast Asia, Libya, and Egypt.

The new Saudi pax: Riyadh also resumes relations with Assad’s Syria. “It’s a message of challenge to the US”

After Tehran , Damascus : according to Saudi state TV Al Ekhbariya , citing sources in the Foreign Ministry , the al-Saud monarchy is in the process of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Bashar Al Assad ‘s Syria , a few days after the news of a similar rapprochement between Riyadh and Iran , ultimately mediated by China . A move that was eagerly awaited in the last week – after the news of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabiaand Iran, an ally of Syria – something unthinkable until a couple of years ago, when, with Trump in the White House , on the horizon for Riyadh there seemed to be the completion of normalization with Israel and a further stiffening vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic and its partner.

Implications of Escalating U.S. Clashes with Iran-Backed Forces in Syria

  • The late March clashes between U.S. and Iran-backed militia forces in eastern Syria upended U.S. hopes that an Iran-Saudi rapprochement would usher in a period of regional stability and raised the potential for expanded U.S.-Iran hostilities.
  • Iran’s alignment with Russia, and the willingness of the Arab Gulf states to engage with Tehran, have emboldened Iran’s leadership to assert Iran’s regional influence.
  • The clashes in eastern Syria will not cause the United States to end the anti-Islamic State mission in Syria and Iraq but might set back U.S. and international hopes for a political solution to the long-running conflict in Yemen.
  • Israeli leaders will view the U.S.-Iran clashes in Syria as justification for escalating Israeli air operations against Iran-linked military infrastructure and militia positions in Syria, or possibly to attack inside Iran.