Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran early Wednesday, widely attributed to Israel, comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago, following the group’s massive Ocrtober 7 attack on southern Israel.
“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group’s political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, seen as the group’s prime orchestrator of West Bank terrorism, who was himself killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri’s post has remained empty since his death.
The group’s Shura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council’s membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group in Gaza, the West Bank and the diaspora as well as those imprisoned.
One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances, and with that, his good relations with Iran.
Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
“It will not be easy,” said al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.
Hamas’s new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the fight against Israel, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises — an unlikely option at this stage. Hamas is avowedly committed to the destruction of Israel.
Mashaal, who led the group until 2017, has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab Spring protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkey and Qatar and is considered a less extreme figure than others. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figure leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.
Al-Hayya, like Haniyeh, is a prominent leader living in exile, originally from Gaza, with important international connections.
Hamas had long had cold relations with the Iran-led “axis of resistance” over its backing for the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria’s civil war that began in March 2011. But in recent years Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, Turkey and Hezbollah.
“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn’t see his leadership as problematic,” al-Masri said.
The role of the group’s leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas’s allies outside the Palestinian territories and the choice is likely to be influenced by the group’s decisions in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any choice will have to be temporary until elections are held in the political bureau. These were supposed to take place this year but have been derailed by the war.
The Hamas leadership meeting may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted on the choice, but who has been in hiding since October 7.
A third possible contender, said al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief and is considered close to Mashaal.
The war in Gaza started on October 7 after the Hamas massacre in which terrorists murdered some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced some 80% of the population to flee their homes. Hamas is still holding 111 of the hostages abducted on October 7; the IDF has confirmed that 39 of them are dead.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 39,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 15,000 combatants in battle and some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel during the October 7 attack.