In recent years, Türkiye has made significant strides in indigenizing its defense industry, emerging as a key arms exporter. The country’s advancements in producing high-quality, cost-effective defense equipment have bolstered its strategic influence in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Gulf. Turkish drones, notably the Bayraktar TB2, played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan’s sweeping victory over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, showcasing the efficacy and sophistication of Turkish defense technology. Coming off a record year for defense exports in 2023, Türkiye is poised to continue its upward trajectory, albeit not without competition or challenges to its market share.
The growth of Türkiye’s defense industry is a crucial element of its national security strategy. By reducing reliance on foreign suppliers and boosting domestic production, Türkiye aims to enhance its strategic autonomy and project power beyond its borders. This burgeoning sector is a cornerstone of Ankara’s foreign policy, allowing it to forge new alliances and strengthen its geopolitical influence.
Historical Background
During the Ottoman period, military production was limited and heavily reliant on foreign suppliers. This dependency continued into the early years of Ataturk and the Turkish Republic. A turning point in Türkiye’s defense industrialization came in 1974 when the United States imposed an arms embargo in response to Türkiye’s military intervention in Cyprus. The embargo exposed the inherent vulnerabilities of Türkiye’s reliance on foreign military suppliers, and ultimately it served as a catalyst for Türkiye to pursue self-sufficiency in defense production. During the late 1970s and 1980s, Türkiye focused on building its own capabilities, especially in critical areas like aviation and armored vehicles. The 1985 establishment of the Undersecretariat for Defense Industries (presently known as the Defense Industry Agency) was a significant step towards organizing and directing defense procurement and production.
The 21st century has marked a period of significant growth and transformation for Türkiye’s defense industry, driven largely by the policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The government’s continued emphasis on reducing dependency on foreign suppliers led to a surge in investment and domestic production capabilities.
Another significant milestone is the recent development of Türkiye’s Kaan fighter jet, which successfully completed its maiden test flight earlier this year. The Kaan represents Türkiye’s ambition to join the elite group of nations capable of producing fifth-generation fighter jets. Although the features of the Kaan fall short in comparison to the likes of the F-35 (US), J-20 (China), or Su-57 (Russia), the aircraft still fills a vital niche for political acceptance and fiscal considerations of non-aligned countries.
Economic and Technical Aspects of Türkiye’s Defense Industry
Türkiye’s defense industry has seen significant advancements in various product categories, including drones, armored vehicles, and naval platforms. Among these, drones have garnered the most international attention, particularly the Bayraktar TB2. This medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has proven to be a game-changer in modern warfare, utilized effectively in conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan’s victory was shaped by drone warfare. The TB2’s success lies in its advanced technology, combined with its cost-effectiveness. The drone is offered at a competitive price point, relative to its NATO counterparts, and without compromising on quality, making it an attractive option for countries with limited defense budgets. In addition to UAVs, Türkiye has made strides in developing armored vehicles such as the Altay main battle tank and the Otokar ARMA wheeled armored vehicle.
Whereas countries like the United States, United Kingdom, and France often bundle arms sales with political conditions, Türkiye opts for a realpolitik approach. This strategy includes fewer restrictions and more favorable terms for technology transfer and joint production. For instance, Türkiye has established several co-production agreements with countries like Qatar and Azerbaijan, allowing for localized manufacturing and assembly of Turkish defense tech. This approach not only enhances the technological capabilities of partner countries but also strengthens bilateral ties and opens new markets for Turkish defense firms to engage in joint ventures and secure additional contracts.
Türkiye’s Defense Exports and Foreign Policy
The focus on indigenizing defense production has been a cornerstone of Türkiye’s defense policy, enabling it to operate independently from traditional Western allies when necessary. Türkiye’s defense exports have captured market share among most of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Horn of Africa.
In the GCC, Türkiye has established strong defense ties with countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These relationships have been solidified through significant defense contracts, such as Saudi Arabia’s $3 billion purchase of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) last year, which marked the largest defense export deal in Türkiye’s history. The deal stands as another example of Türkiye’s willingness to accept stipulations for technology transfer and joint production.
The Horn of Africa has also emerged as a critical region for Turkish defense exports. Türkiye’s involvement in Somalia, where Ankara has established its largest overseas military base, exemplifies its strategy of using defense exports to enhance security cooperation with Somali forces. This presence allows Türkiye to influence regional security dynamics and project its power across the Red Sea and into the Indian Ocean. The strategic importance of these regions for Türkiye lies in geopolitics, particularly their access to maritime routes, along with potential opportunities for Turkish companies in African markets.
Türkiye’s approach to defense diplomacy also reflects its pursuit of a more independent foreign policy. By diversifying its defense partnerships and reducing reliance on traditional Western allies, Türkiye can navigate complex international relations with greater autonomy. This independence is crucial, especially considering past tensions with NATO allies over issues like Türkiye’s controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system and its exclusion from the F-35 program. These developments underscore Türkiye’s strategic pivot towards a more self-reliant defense posture, leveraging its defense industry to achieve broader national and foreign policy goals outside of the framework offered by NATO.
Prospects and Challenges
Türkiye’s comparative advantages, such as cost-effective production and high-quality performance, are key drivers of the record-level growth in its defense industry. The country’s emphasis on indigenizing its defense industry has reduced costs and allowed for competitive pricing in the global arms market.
Moreover, Türkiye’s independent foreign policy stance, which often diverges from traditional Western and fellow NATO allies, enables it to engage with a broader range of countries, including those under international sanctions or in politically sensitive regions. This flexibility has positioned Türkiye as a preferred partner for countries seeking advanced military technology without the conditions often imposed by Western suppliers.
As Türkiye continues to innovate and expand its product offerings, it is likely to capture an even larger share of the global arms market, particularly in its niche of the wealthy GCC countries and lower to upper middle-income countries across Asia and Africa.
Yet despite this positive trajectory, Türkiye’s defense industry still faces challenges. International sanctions, particularly those from Western nations, can pose significant hurdles. For instance, Türkiye’s defense industry still relies on several foreign-made components for certain high-tech systems, which can be a vulnerability in times of geopolitical tension or supply chain disruptions. An additional challenge comes from competition with other emerging arms exporters, such as Iran. Both Türkiye and Iran are increasingly active in proxy conflicts, often supporting opposing sides.