With Iran’s regional influence in steep decline, Turkey is aggressively positioning itself to fill the vacuum and assert dominance across the eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. This ambition is clearly evidenced by Ankara’s rapid military buildup, its expanding engagement with African states such as Libya and Somalia, and its assertive military activity in Syria, all of which exploit Tehran’s retreat from the regional stage.
Turkey Fills the Void
These developments have alarmed key US allies—including Greece, Israel, and Cyprus—who warn that Turkey’s revisionist foreign policy directly threatens their security and sovereignty. Left unchecked, Ankara’s expansionist agenda may not only destabilize the region but could also entangle Europe and the United States in a broader conflict. As one analyst starkly observed, “Turkey may be the new Iran.”
Ankara’s recent diplomatic overtures in Africa illustrate a worrisome trend. In 2019, Turkey intervened in Libya’s civil war on behalf of the Tripoli-based government of Fayez al-Sarraj, providing weapons and deploying troops to help secure his regime. In return, al-Sarraj agreed to a maritime boundary deal that vastly expanded Turkey’s territorial claims in the Mediterranean—claims that directly challenge the internationally recognized maritime boundaries of Greece.
The agreement, roundly rejected by the European Union and regional powers like Egypt, served as a preview of Ankara’s ambitions. Now, Turkey is courting Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the rival Libyan National Army in the country’s east—despite having previously backed his adversary. By hosting Haftar in Ankara in July, Turkish officials are banking on securing a similar maritime agreement with Libya’s eastern government. They are also counting on the EU to acquiesce, hoping Brussels will prioritize Turkish cooperation in curbing African migration to Europe over safeguarding Greek sovereignty.
If both Libyan factions ratify Turkey’s maritime claims and Europe offers no meaningful resistance, it would constitute a blatant violation of existing international maritime law. Such a move would raise the specter of armed confrontation between Turkey and Greece.
Turkey’s Moves Are Far-Reaching
Israel harbors similar concerns. In July 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced deepened ties with Somalia—a country in which Turkey has invested heavily in infrastructure, education, and healthcare. More crucially, Ankara has provided extensive military training and support, and in return operates its largest overseas military base on Somali soil. Israeli officials fear this base could serve as a launchpad for Turkish military operations or missile deployments that place key Israeli population centers within striking distance.
Turkey’s rapidly advancing weapons programs heighten those fears. At the 2025 International Defense Industry Fair (IDEF), Ankara unveiled the “Tayfun 4,” a hypersonic ballistic missile believed to have the range to strike Israel. Turkey also showcased the “Gazap,” its most powerful non-nuclear aerial bomb to date—capable of penetrating fortified bunkers and deployable from F-16 fighter jets.
Capping these displays of military ambition was Turkey’s announcement of a preliminary agreement with the United Kingdom and Germany to purchase 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets. Though the deal has yet to be finalized, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are lobbying hard to block it. They are also urging Washington to maintain its restrictions on selling fifth-generation F-35 jets to Turkey—restrictions imposed in 2019 after Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Fears Grow in the Region
Turkey’s activities in Syria further justify Israel’s apprehension. For years, Ankara provided arms and training to Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other jihadist groups in Idlib, all to unseat Bashar al-Assad. That gamble paid off when al-Sharaa toppled Assad in December 2024 and installed himself as interim president. Erdogan views al-Sharaa as a pliable proxy leader and is already working to rebuild Syria’s military under Turkish guidance. More than 20,000 Turkish troops remain stationed inside Syria.
Turkey’s ambitions to deepen its military presence were exposed—and thwarted—when Israeli fighter jets destroyed an airbase in Palmyra just hours before the arrival of Turkish personnel. Israeli officials see Turkey’s goal as clear: to replace Iran as Syria’s primary patron and use the country as a staging ground to threaten Israel. These are not baseless fears. Ankara’s full-throated support for Hamas—especially since the October 7 attacks—reinforces the perception that Turkey is positioning itself as a regional antagonist to Israel.
Cyprus, too, has valid reasons for concern. Turkey has illegally occupied the northern third of the island since 1974, maintaining tens of thousands of troops on its soil. But what was once seen as a uniquely Cypriot dilemma is increasingly viewed by Israeli analysts as a broader security threat.
Since 2021, Turkey has deployed armed drones, including the Akinci and Bayraktar platforms, to Northern Cyprus—systems capable of striking Israeli naval vessels, gas platforms, and other critical infrastructure. In addition, Turkey has positioned ATMACA anti-ship missiles on the island. With a range of over 200 kilometers, they pose a direct threat to Israel’s offshore energy assets.
Taking Turkey’s Threat Seriously
Some may argue that these concerns are overblown. After all, Turkey continues to portray itself as a responsible NATO ally—one that supports efforts to contain Russia and mediate peace in Ukraine. It claims to be a stabilizing force in Syria, not an enabler of jihadist warlords. And it insists that its support for Hamas is rooted in humanitarian concern, not military alliance. But these narratives unravel under scrutiny.
Throughout the Syrian civil war, Erdogan doubled down on efforts to empower jihadist militias with ties to Al Qaeda under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army (SNA). Members of these militias, which now form the core of the new Syrian army, have been implicated in violent attacks against Syria’s Alawite and Druze minorities.
Similarly, Erdogan’s sympathy for Hamas is not limited to rhetoric and sympathy for Palestinians. Turkey has a documented and ongoing track record of providing material support to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization in the United States and the European Union.
Turkey’s record tells a different story—one of opportunistic power projection, escalating militarism, and strategic partnerships with actors hostile to Western interests. Whether in Libya, Somalia, Syria, or Cyprus, Ankara is redrawing the map of the region, often at the expense of international law and the security of its neighbors. The evidence is mounting: Turkey is not a benign actor seeking peace, but a revisionist power exploiting regional instability to assert its dominance.
The West must take this threat seriously. For Greece, Israel, and Cyprus, the danger is immediate. But the implications for Europe and the United States are no less profound. While Washington and Brussels perceive Turkey as a security partner in the abstract, Ankara is encircling the region militarily and diplomatically, with little to no pushback.