Hybrid warfare has made the transition from being a purely theoretical concern to a multifaceted and pervasive strategy that fundamentally affects the structure of modern societies. It has transcended the boundaries of propaganda and disinformation, by transforming these tools into powerful weapons to influence democratic processes and government decision-making. In this context, the Western Balkans represents a dynamic laboratory where hybrid strategies are clearly manifested, which not only challenge the stability of the region, but also reconfigures its political and social landscape.
The phenomenon of “Srpski Svet” (Serbian World) and “Ruski Mir” (Russian World) constitute two of the most visible strategies operating in this space. Built on the goals of global multipolarization, these projects are an integral part of Russia’s Eurasian strategy, which seeks to challenge Western dominance and expand its influence in the region. Multipolarization has evolved from a simple theoretical idea into a reality characterized by concrete and interventionist actions, as illustrated by the initiatives undertaken by the BRICS countries, which clearly aim to reshape the global balance of power.
A significant example of this dynamic is the overthrow of pro-Western structures in Montenegro, a process that has been the product of direct intervention by Russia and Serbia. Following these developments, the next strategy seems to be to create a legal framework that would allow Serbian citizens of Montenegro to automatically obtain Serbian citizenship. This move follows a broader narrative of demographic and political influence, supported by recent census data. Its results show an increase in the number of citizens who identify as Serbs, thus creating a demographic base that favors the strategic ambitions of Belgrade and Moscow.
This combination of covert influence, manipulated demography, and political interference poses a serious challenge not only to the countries of the region, but also to the broader Euro-Atlantic security architecture. In this context, hybrid warfare in the Western Balkans presents itself as a clear model of complex hybrid strategies, which require in-depth analysis and a coordinated response from international actors.
Dual citizenship law in Montenegro: a tactic to expand the “Serbian world”
In May 2024, the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS” published a scientific study that analyzes the geopolitical strategy of Russia and Serbia comparing to Montenegro, focusing on hybrid warfare as a means to influence the country’s demographics and political structure. This study sheds light on how Russia and Serbia are using ethnic engineering and political influence to strengthen Serbian identity and consolidate the concept of the “Serbian world”. One of the main tools of this strategy is the demand of dual citizenship for Serbian citizens of Montenegro.
Currently, Montenegro has a strict stance on dual citizenship. According to the current legislation, a foreign citizen seeking Montenegrin citizenship must surrender his previous citizenship. This legal provision constitutes an obstacle to the implementation of proposals by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, which demand that Montenegrin citizens of Serbian origin have the right to have dual citizenship, including that of Serbia.
These efforts resulted as part of a broader strategy to change the demographic and political balance in Montenegro, significantly strengthening ties between the Serbian community and Serbia. This scenario creates a favorable basis for political manipulation and increasing Belgrade’s influence in Montenegro.
Demographic statistics show profound changes in the ethnic composition of Montenegro over the past decades. In the last census, 41.12% of the population declared themselves Montenegrins, while 33% declared themselves Serbs—an increase of 4% compared to the 2011 census. This change is particularly significant when compared to historical data:
These figures show a disproportionate growth of the Serbian community, especially after the collapse of Yugoslavia. This trend has important implications, suggesting a well-thought-out strategy to change the ethnic composition and to overthrow the political dominance of Montenegrins.
The results of the latest census and the growth trends of the Serbian community constitute a clear indication of what can be described as ethnic engineering. The main goal is to create a demographic base that would enable the realization of major strategic objectives:
- Referendum on unification with Serbia: A possible scenario where Serbia uses its demographic majority to organize a referendum on unification with Montenegro.
- Division of a part of the territory by referendum: The other scenario is when a part of Montenegro dominated by a Serbian majority and a pro-Serbian and pro-Russian majority organizes a referendum on separation.
- Changing geopolitical circumstances: In the case of international tensions, a Serbian invasion of Montenegro could be justified on the basis of “protecting” the Serbian community.
- Expansion of Serbian identity: Through culture, religion and politics, an empowered Serbian identity is promoted in Montenegro.
This strategy is not simply a demographic or legal issue, it rather represents a serious threat to Montenegro’s sovereignty. As Serbian influence in the country’s ethnic and political structure grows, Montenegro’s internal stability and territorial integrity are at risk. In particular, Serbia’s and Russia’s hybrid interventions through disinformation, diplomatic pressure, and the fomentation of ethnic divisions aim to undermine the country’s democratic structures.
The ethnic and social engineering efforts in Montenegro will not stop because this country constitutes a substantial component of the completion of the dream of the “Serbian world” and constitutes Russia’s current easiest route to sea access to warm waters.
The Western Balkans remain a key point in international geopolitical dynamics, where historically inherited tensions combine with modern threats of hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare, as a sophisticated and multidimensional strategy, has transcended the usual frameworks of previous conflicts, becoming a means of influencing the political and social structures of the region. Serbia and Russia use these tactics to achieve their agendas in the region, directly challenging the sovereignty and stability of countries such as Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Hercegovina.
One of the most visible strategies of this phenomenon is the implementation of the “Srpski Svet” project, which aims to create a demographic and political base that supports the interests of Belgrade and Moscow. This is achieved through demographic engineering, electoral manipulation, and historical and cultural narratives that promote Serbian identity and its ties to Russia. Similarly, the hybrid tactics used in Georgia and Ukraine provide a clear model for understanding the potential for escalating tensions in the Balkans, involving the use of demographics, ideological narratives, and hybrid tools.
It is also clear that these efforts are not limited to demographic or legal aspects. On the contrary, they represent a multidimensional threat that jeopardizes the regional security architecture and the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkan countries. The manipulation of democratic processes and the creation of ethnic tensions through hybrid means underlines the necessity for a rapid and coordinated response by Western actors.
The experience of hybrid conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine shows that a delayed response only reinforces the strategies of the aggressors and creates space for further destabilization. In this regard, the continued engagement of NATO and the European Union in supporting the stability of the Balkans is vital to avoid further escalation of the situation.
Ultimately, hybrid warfare in the Balkans should not be treated as an isolated issue. It is part of a broader global strategy to challenge Western and create a new multipolar international order. Therefore, the response to these challenges must be equally strategic and comprehensive, including strengthening democratic and security capacities in vulnerable countries, as well as addressing the sources of hybrid influence.