As the Pope landed in Indonesia last week to urge a united front against religious extremism, it was the quick action of police that saved his life, uncovering a desperate plot to assassinate him with a bow and arrow, and a drone.
Numerous attempts have been foiled in the millennium since the last Pope was assassinated – but it was what police found during a raid of one of the suspect’s houses that rang alarm bells.
ISIS leaflets were found among the possessions of those allegedly behind the attempt. Some of those since arrested were claimed to have pledged allegiance to the Jihadist terror group.
Since ISIS lost its last stronghold in Syria five years ago, the terror group has never been able re-exert itself as the regional power it was at its peak – when it ruled over 12 million people across the Middle East.
However, there are signs that ISIS could be on the rise once more. The last year has seen a resurgence of threats across Africa, Asia and Europe, from suicide bus bombings in Kabul to machine-gun assaults on theatres in Moscow and a plot to kill ‘tens of thousands’ of Taylor Swift fans in Vienna.
The return of Islamic State to frontpage headlines is not coincidental. Experts warn the group is using conflicts and tension around the world to galvanise its comeback, exploiting apathy towards the West to fuel a new fire of international terror.
Security chiefs would have breathed a sigh of relief when the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics passed by uneventfully at the end of July.
In the months preceding the Games, security had been stepped up sharply in light of an attack some 1,500 miles east, in Russia.
The assault at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in April reverberated around Europe when ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack that left 137 people dead.
In horrific scenes shared widely across social media, gunmen were seen storming through the theatre, shooting indiscriminately before setting the venue ablaze – a stark reminder of terror not seen in Europe for years.
A month prior, the British and American embassies in Russia had apparently picked up the scent, urging citizens to avoid ‘large gatherings’ in Moscow and check local media for updates.
Putting aside political animosity, the US had advised Russia that Crocus was a possible target of attack – intelligence rejected by Russia, which instead blamed the attack on Kyiv, after broadcasting an FSB raid on an alleged ISIS cell planning an attack on a Moscow synagogue in March.
And then in June, ISIS struck again, killing at least 20 people in southern Russia as black-clad militants stormed through Dagestan burning religious buildings and firing upon police and bystanders.
Russia is a new theatre of insurgency for the group. While the so-called Islamic State has carried out a spate of attacks since Syrian forces ousted the group from its last territory in the 2019 Battle of Baghuz Fawqani, the group had avoided attacking Russia since 2018, within the context of the Syrian Civil War.
Still, factions remained. ISIS-K, one such group based out of Khorasan (straddling Iran and Afghanistan), has been galvanised by the thousands of veteran militants returning east from Iraq and Syria in the years since.
The attack on Crocus appears to reflect ISIS-K’s wider ambitions, allowing the faction the resource to conduct attacks on behalf of ISIS in Europe, where historically it has been bound to its conflict with the Taliban.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline: ‘ISIS methodically kept itself alive during the height of military and counterterrorism pressure it faced by creating a global structure of mutually supportive regional networks.’
He said those operating out of Afghanistan, East Africa and West Africa have been ‘particularly effective’.
‘The regional network structure allows for a formerly “remote province” like Khorasan to step up and enable international attacks if it has the capacity to do so.
‘That capacity is partly enabled by funds authorised by the leadership in Syria.
‘Khorasan is also important because of diasporas: Uzbek, Chechen, Daghestani and especially Tajik.
‘These ethnicities provide networks that link Afghanistan, Turkey, Central Asia, the Caucasus with target venues in Russia, Iran, Germany, Scandinavia, France.’
ISIS-K and the Taliban have been embroiled in a bloody conflict for nearly a decade, with bus bombings and suicide attacks rocking Afghanistan as recently as September 2.
But reinforced by those returning from the war in Syria, the offshoot now has the resource to threaten adversaries further afield – and found an audience by exploiting the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza.
‘ISIS has always prioritised its very professional propaganda and that has found a readier audience since the start of the Gaza war,’ Mr Fitton-Brown told MailOnline.
In April, a Moroccan asylum seeker stabbed a British retiree to death in revenge for Israel’s war against Hamas because ‘Israel had killed innocent children’. The same month, a woman was raped and held prisoner in France by a man who sought to ‘avenge Palestine’.
Millions have marched worldwide to bring attention to the tragic deaths of civilians during Israel’s campaign in Gaza, mostly in peace. The UN, rights charities and aid groups have urged an end to the campaign, with millions of people displaced by the war and at risk of famine and disease.
But the Khorasan faction of ISIS appears to have found room to manouevre in targeting radicals predisposed to violence, urging in January: ‘Lions of Islam: Chase your preys whether Jewish, Christian or their allies.’
At the end of the month, Istanbul was shaken by a church shooting claimed by ISIS – the first attack in Turkey since 2017.
Two masked gunmen entered the church during Sunday Mass and began shooting, killing one person and injuring another. Around 40 people were reported to be in the church at the time.
Turkish national Tuncer Cihan, described by his nephew as ‘a mentally disabled individual who had no connection to politics or (criminal) organizations’ was killed during the attack.
Europe noticed when a media outlet linked to the terror group released a threatening image naming four host stadiums of the Champions League quarterfinals in April, captioned ‘Kill them all’.
Then in late August, the CIA announced it had warned Austrian authorities about a planned terror attack at Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna linked to an ‘ISIS-connected group’.
They said suspects were aiming to kill ‘tens of thousands’ of people over the Austria leg of the Eras Tour, pushing the artist to reschedule dates in London.
Last month, Germany was also rocked by a terror attack in the western city of Solingen, in which three people were stabbed to death at a gathering of Christians.
A 26-year-old suspect, named as ‘Issa Al H’ was arrested at a home for refugees in Solingen as Islamic State once more claimed responsibility for the attacks.
The group said in a statement that the attacker was a ‘soldier of the Islamic State’ who carried out the attack ‘to avenge Muslims in Palestine and everywhere.’
The power vacuum left in Iraq after the 2003 invasion made space for groups like ISIS to flourish. Quickly, the group mobilised propaganda to build a formidable army of militants and overcome even its genesis in factions of Al Qaeda.
While the material gains the group had made were shattered in Syria in 2019, the idea of ISIS remains a powerful lure for returning militants and those disillusioned with the status quo in the worn-torn Middle East.
Attacks and threats in Europe reflect a new momentum for the group, having rebuilt the resource to stage insurgencies further afield with conscripts motivated by new wars and regional challenges.
The instability of ISIS’ heartlands gives new encouragement to the group and its fresh recruits, willing to die for ISIS’ ambitions across Africa, Asia and Europe.
While the group struggles to build back the territory it claimed a decade ago, the group’s deeply rooted networks continue to prove a constant challenge for the world.