- In today’s summary:
- DeepState – Russian troops have made significant advances in the Toretsk direction and entered New York
- The Russian Armed Forces have achieved success on the northern flank of the Avdeevka operational area, while their offensive on the southern flank has been stopped
- In the north of the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to disrupt the enemy’s logistics and recapture some of the positions in Glubokoe
- It has been reliably established that the Okhmatdit Children’s Hospital in Kyiv was hit by a Russian Kh-101 missile on July 8
- In June, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched over 2,300 glide bombs at Ukrainian territory
- The Economist — the total losses of killed and wounded on the Russian side in the war amount to between 462,000 and 728,000 people
- NATO countries have secured a commitment to provide Ukraine with €40 billion in military aid in 2025
- Investigative journalists have found that the EU’s actual artillery ammunition production capacity is at least half that stated
- The situation at the front
- According to DeepState , Russian troops have been advancing in the Torets direction for almost the entire week . In particular, they managed to enter New York ( Novgorodskoye in 1951–2021 ) and reach the center of the village. The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, reported the capture of the village of Chigari , which is actually the southern outskirts of Pivnichnoye , located to the north .
Ukrainian sources criticize the command of the 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade operating in the area for unjustified losses, and analyst Emil Kastehjelmi from Black Bird Group notes that the crisis arose because the Russians took advantage of the rotation, during which the 41st Brigade replaced the 24th, which left near Chasov Yar , and predicts that the Russian command may make this area, along with Avdiivka , a key point of the summer campaign, transferring forces there to exploit success. At the same time, Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets claims that the pace of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the Toretsk agglomeration has already slowed down considerably.
In the Avdeevka operational area, Russian troops advanced near Vozdvizhenka on the way to the Pokrovsk (before 2016 — Krasnoarmeysk ) — Konstantinovka highway . According to “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok, the defense of Vozdvizhenka is being conducted by only one platoon. DeepState and the Russian Defense Ministry also write about the loss of Yevgenovka and the neighboring village of Voskhod by the Ukrainians ( 1 , 2 ).
On the southern flank of the offensive zone of the Russian Armed Forces north of Avdiivka , as reported by a Ukrainian serviceman who runs the Telegram channel “Officer ✙”, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to stop the enemy “at the cost of great efforts”, although, according to Kotenok , they still had to leave part of the settlement of Karlovka . According to Ukrainian serviceman Stanislav Bunyatov, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of Novosyolovka Pervaya is facilitated by the use of FPV drones that communicate with the operator at low frequencies, against which the existing “trench electronic warfare ” is powerless. Mashovets believes that the command of the Russian group “Center” is trying to prevent the Ukrainians from gaining a foothold on the line of the Volchya , Kazennyi Torets and Bychok rivers , and hopes to introduce strategic reserves in this direction.
Further south, in the area of Maryinka , the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating in Krasnogorovka , with both the Russian and Ukrainian sides reporting significant losses. Russian troops are advancing here through “meat assaults” and air support , with only a quarter of the city remaining under Ukrainian control .
In the eastern part of the Kharkiv region, DeepState notes the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Sinkovka , and Mashovets writes that the Russian command considers this direction one of the priorities and is striving to reach the Oskol River with the prospect of storming Kupyansk-Uzlovaya .
In the north of the Kharkiv region , as reported by The Washington Post, Russian logistics were disrupted using drones – confirmation can be found in the channel of the UAV unit operating in this direction , which publishes photos of the “road of death” strewn with destroyed equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance in the village of Glubokoe in the west of the Russian border bridgehead.
According to “war correspondent” Vladimir Romanov, Russian troops in this direction are advancing under the command of General Alexander Lapin, who once distinguished himself with a catastrophic attempt to cross the Seversky Donets in the Belogorovka area , and are experiencing difficulties with coordination, which leads to unnecessary losses. According to OSINT analyst Passi Paroinen, the Russian Armed Forces in this direction were unable to complete the task of creating a “buffer zone” and establishing fire control over Kharkov , but they managed to draw Ukrainian reserves from other directions.
This week, Russian military personnel complained about the dominance of Ukrainian drones and the arbitrary actions of the military police. On the Ukrainian side, in turn, military correspondent Yuriy Butusov voiced his opinion about systemic problems in the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, where they are more often engaged in finding the guilty and punitive measures rather than eliminating the causes of losses and abandonment of settlements.
At the same time, according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has generally improved compared to this spring, including due to an increase in ammunition supplies. The main problems, according to the analyst, are Russian airstrikes and the situation in the Ukrainian energy system.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
On July 8, a large-scale missile strike was carried out on the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported the interception of 30 of 38 cruise and ballistic missiles. The strikes hit the Dnieper , Krivoy Rog and Kiev , where the military plant “Artem” , the children’s hospital “Okhmatdit” ( Okhorona maternitsva ta ditinstva, Ukrainian ), a private maternity hospital and a residential building , where the entrance collapsed, were damaged.
According to Ukrainian law enforcement and international researchers, including Bellingcat , the children’s hospital was hit by a Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile.
The CIT is confident that the missile did not hit the hospital under the influence of air defense or electronic warfare, and cites a targeted strike on the hospital, a route programming error, or a technical malfunction as possible causes of the hit. Even in the latter two cases, analysts note, Russia is obliged to thoroughly investigate the incident, and failure to do so would be a separate crime on the Russian side. At the same time, Russian official sources deny involvement in the strike ( 1 , 2 ).
In total, according to the State Emergency Service , as a result of the missile attack on July 8, 44 people were killed and another 196 were injured throughout Ukraine.
In addition, Ukrainian air defense systems repelled attacks by Russian missiles and drones:
- July 6 ( 24 of the 27 launched Shahed missiles were reported destroyed, power supply was disrupted in the Sumy region );
- July 7 ( 13 Shaheds were launched , all were shot down, and two ballistic missiles, damage was recorded to private homes in Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk region );
- on the night of July 8 ( two ballistic and four cruise missiles were launched , three of the latter were shot down);
- July 10 ( four missiles and 20 drones launched , 14 of the latter were shot down, another three missiles and three drones reportedly failed to reach their targets due to “active countermeasures”);
- July 11 ( two ballistic missiles and six Shaheds were launched , all drones were shot down);
- July 12 (five missiles, 19 Shaheds and unspecified decoy UAVs were launched, 11 drones and all missiles were shot down , the strike was carried out on the Starokonstantinov airfield , which may be preparing to receive the first F-16 fighters).
- Among the military targets claimed by the Russian side to have been destroyed this week were an air defense position in the Odessa region ( 1 , 2 ) (the Ukrainian side claims that the targets were mock-ups), HIMARS launchers ( 1 , 2 ), a military vehicle column in the Sumy region , and an Israeli RADA MHR tactical radar in the Kharkiv region . In addition, the Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro was damaged in a missile attack on July 8 .
In turn, the authorities of Donetsk ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ), Kharkiv ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ), Dnipropetrovsk , Mykolaiv , Odessa and Rivne regions also reported attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure facilities .
The Ukrainian authorities are working with foreign partners to strengthen the fight against Russian strikes. In particular, requests have been renewed to the American administration to allow the use of ATACMS missiles against airfields deep inside Russian territory, and a clause on a mechanism for neutralizing Russian missiles by Polish air defense systems in the western regions of Ukraine has been included in the security agreement with Poland – although Poland has stated that it will not do this without a consensus in NATO.
Meanwhile, it has been calculated that in June the Russian Aerospace Forces launched 2,305 KABs at Ukraine , and the number of aerial bombs that fell on Russian territory and the occupied territories of Ukraine over the past five months has reached 125 units.
Over the course of the week, Ukrainian forces struck the following targets in Russia and the occupied territories:
- at two oil depots and a cell phone tower in the Krasnodar region ;
- at the ammunition depot in the Voronezh region ;
- at the oil depot in the Volgograd region ;
- at the electrical substation in the Rostov region ;
- for two military units and the Kapustin Yar missile range in the Astrakhan region ;
- for the electrical substation of the oil-making plant and two gas stations in the Kursk region ;
- at the S-300V air defense missile system positioning area in occupied Mariupol .
- In addition, during the week, the authorities of the Belgorod region reported daily shelling of border settlements. According to the publication Astra, HIMARS MLRS were used, among others. The border village of Bezymeno was practically destroyed, there were almost no people left there. Ukrainian activist Sergei Sternenko claims that houses where Russian soldiers are stationed are being shelled.
Losses
The BBC Russian Service and the Mediazona publication publish the losses in the war on the Russian side, confirmed from open sources with the help of a team of volunteers. They managed to record that over the past six months, the Russian Armed Forces have lost at least 10,014 people, and since the beginning of the war – at least 59,168 people. Of these, 14% are volunteers, 12% are mobilized, and former prisoners still hold the lead – 20%.
The Economist compiled various estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine and made its own calculations based on data from Meduza and Mediazona. Taking their study, based on the register of inheritance cases with a final result in the range of 106 thousand to 140 thousand dead, and applying the ratio of killed to wounded (1:3–1:4) from the Pentagon documents leaked online, the journalists got from 462 thousand to 728 thousand losses in killed and wounded.
Propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova writes that most wounded Russian soldiers do not undergo rehabilitation. According to her, after a hospital stay and a short vacation, they are declared partially fit for service and sent back to the front. She claims that only those who have had one or another limb torn off can avoid this, and points out that the rotation process has not been established.
Analyst Naalsio updated the data on confirmed losses of equipment of the parties in the Avdiivka operational area . For the period from June 28 to July 5, he recorded 27 lost units of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces and six of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the Kharkiv direction, for the period from July 1 to July 8, Naalsio counted 16 lost units of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces and seven of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The New York Times published an article about how foreign volunteers fighting for the Ukrainian Armed Forces killed Russian soldiers who tried to surrender. Medic Kaspar Grosse, who fought as part of the Chosen Company unit, told the publication about three similar cases that took place in 2023, two of which are confirmed by video. In Ukraine, the incidents have not yet been investigated, but in response to a request from journalists, they promised to “carefully study and verify them.”
Ukrainian volunteer Serhiy Sternenko, in turn, published a video of yet another shooting by Russian servicemen of a group of unarmed Ukrainian Armed Forces prisoners of war. Presumably, the war crime was committed by servicemen from the 70th motorized rifle regiment. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has launched an investigation. It is specified that the incident occurred near Rabotino in the Zaporizhia region .
Weapons and military equipment
In the run-up to and during the NATO summit, the alliance countries confirmed plans to transfer long-, medium- and short-range air defense systems (including Patriot, SAMP-T, NASAMS and Hawk air defense systems, as well as Gepard ZSU ) to Ukraine in the near future, confirmed their intention to allocate €40 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2025, and committed to developing a long-term support strategy for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, the following military aid packages were announced this week, including during the summit:
- The US will supply the Patriot system as part of the PDA , as well as antitank missiles , antiaircraft missiles and ammunition for artillery and the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system.
- During a visit to Odessa, the Minister of Defence of the newly elected British government, John Healey , announced a new package, which will include, in particular, 10 units of AS90 self-propelled guns , barrels and spare parts for them, 90 Brimstone missiles, 60 thousand 155-mm ammunition, 50 patrol boats and 61 bulldozers for the construction of fortifications.
- Germany has delivered a new batch of weapons and military equipment, including a Patriot air defense system, two TMRL-D radars , 55,000 artillery rounds, as well as armored vehicles, engineering vehicles, boats, drones and counter-drones
- Spain has completed repairs on another batch of 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks to be delivered to Ukraine
- Norway has donated parts for Sea King helicopters, announced plans to deliver six F-16 fighter jets this year, and will spend more than $92 million to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.
- Belgium to transfer 30 F-16 fighters to Ukraine, but will only allow them to be used on its territory
- Netherlands to allocate additional €300 million for F-16 ammunition and €20 million for FPV drone production as part of ‘drone coalition’
- Canada has allocated a $366 million package, of which $285 million will go to training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets and supporting the use of these aircraft.
- Australia has allocated the largest package to date, worth $170 million, which will include SAMs, air-to-surface weapons, including guided weapons, anti-tank missiles, ammunition, and clothing.
- Denmark financed the production of 18 Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers “Bogdan”, in total, the Ukrainian defense industry managed to attract foreign orders for the Armed Forces of Ukraine worth $675 million
- Estonia to hand over Mistral short-range air defense systems and missiles for them
- Lithuania Delivers Anti-Drone Systems, Ammunition, and Folding Beds to Ukraine
- Argentina has promised to begin military supplies to Ukraine without naming specific weapons and military equipment
- At the same time, it became known that the EU at least doubles its own capabilities for producing artillery ammunition and supplying it to Ukraine. The total production volumes currently do not exceed 500 thousand artillery rounds per year. Informed sources in the European defense industry told investigative journalists about this .
Meanwhile, American M483A1 cluster artillery munitions (until now only newer modifications have been supplied), a 1944-model BS-3 cannon with Serbian-made ammunition, and North Korean R-122 rockets , which probably arrived in Ukraine from the Middle East, have appeared on the Ukrainian front.
Russia, in turn, has increased production of Kh-101 cruise missiles eightfold compared to the “pre-war” period thanks to the import of sanctioned components, the Financial Times notes after one of these missiles hit a children’s hospital in Kiev. At the same time, according to OSINT researchers ( 1 , 2 ), fewer and fewer tanks remain in Russian warehouses – due to the reduction in the number of vehicles in good condition, the average monthly rate of their de-preservation has fallen by almost half (from 115 to 60 units per month) and no longer covers losses at the front (about 93 units per month). Nevertheless, in a conversation with Radio Liberty, researchers express the opinion that the Russian Armed Forces “will never run out of tanks”, but the Russian army will be forced to increasingly resort to infantry wave tactics instead of armored columns – if it is not possible to establish supplies of armored vehicles from one of the countries friendly to the Russian Federation.
In addition, Russian military personnel at the front use buggies in the style of the post-apocalyptic franchise “Mad Max” and continue to practice “barbecue construction” – a “tsar golf cart” with a huge “barbecue” and a boat covered from above with a grate from “drops” have been spotted at the front .