Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has likely won a simple majority in the Georgian parliamentary election held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results. Partial preliminary results released by the Georgian Central Election Committee (CEC) on October 26 indicate that the Georgian Dream party will likely win the majority of seats in parliament, but the results are neither complete nor final.[1] The results suggest that Georgian Dream will form the new Georgian government, but that it will not have the 113 seats required to obtain the “constitutional majority” it needs to pursue some of the goals it has outlined, including outlawing nearly all opposition parties.[2] The CEC reported that voter turnout was nearly 59 percent- the highest since 2012 when Georgian Dream first came to power.[3]
Various opposition party officials and Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili declared an early victory citing various polls suggesting results in which pro-Western opposition parties would hold a majority in the Georgian Parliament.[4] The results are subject to change as the CEC is expected to announce the final results on October 27 after ballots in both electronic and non-electronic precincts-including precincts abroad- have been counted.
Georgian Dream has adopted a very strongly pro-Russian platform. Its leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, promised in August 2024 to ban pro-Western opposition parties for their alleged role in instigating the 2008 Russian war against Georgia and subsequent Russian occupation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgian Dream won a constitutional majority.[5] Georgian Dream officials have repeatedly accused former president Mikhail Saakashvili and his United National Movement party (a part of the Unity-National Movement coalition during the October 2024 elections) of starting the Russian war against Georgia in 2008 in line with long-standing Kremlin information operations aimed at discrediting pro-Western domestic leaders, justifying Russian violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of post-Soviet countries, and shifting blame for the unjustified 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia to the victims.[6]
A number of incidents have marred the elections suggesting a thus far undetermined magnitude of election fraud pending reports from election observers. Georgian and Western outlets reported instances of ballot stuffing, violence in polling stations, intimidation of journalists and opposition representatives, an attack on the Unity-National Movement headquarters, compromised voter privacy, and other irregularities.[7] A coalition of Georgian civil society organizations monitoring the election have accused Georgian Dream of undertaking “a complex scheme of election fraud” and called for the annulment of the election results.[8] ISW is not prepared to assess the scale or impact of these reported instances pending the final reports of official international monitors. The European Union (EU) recently warned that Georgia must conduct free and fair parliamentary elections in order to continue its trajectory towards EU membership and suggested that fraudulent elections would stall this process while also possibly resulting in the revocation of Georgia’s visa-free regime with the Schengen Zone countries (comprised of EU and other European partners).[9]
The election results are likely to lead to opposition mobilization and protests given initial reactions from opposition parties claiming that the elections were fraudulent. United National Movement party chairman Tina Bokuchava responded to the preliminary election results by stating that her party will not accept the results and that Georgian Dream “stole the victory from the Georgian people and thus stole the European future” of Goergia.[10] Opposition leaders of the Coalition for Change stated that the election results were ”stolen” and that they would hold Georgian Dream accountable for the outcome.[11] Georgian Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri announced on October 24 the purchase of several new water cannons for Georgian riot police likely in anticipation of possible protests following the election.[12] Georgian civil society has a rich history of demonstrating in favor of Georgia’s future in the EU, and thousands of Georgians took the street of Tbilisi on October 20 to show support for opposition parties indicating an atmosphere conducive to post-election protest.[13]
The Russian information space is already celebrating a Georgian Dream victory, further demonstrating that Georgian Dream is the Kremlin’s favored party in the Georgian parliamentary elections. Russian propagandist and RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan prematurely claimed that Georgian Dream has won and suggested that this is a victory for “all Georgians.”[14] Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyev published footage claiming that Georgians are celebrating the victory of Georgian Dream.[15] Russian milbloggers also posted anti-Western narratives discrediting pro-Western opposition parties while supporting Georgian Dream.[16] ISW previously assessed that Russia has pursued a systematic informational effort to discredit pro-Western opposition parties in favor of the ruling Georgian Dream party as the party’s foreign policy and domestic politics clearly align with Kremlin interests.[17]
ISW recently assessed that the Kremlin will likely leverage a Georgian Dream parliamentary victory to enhance its influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus while also derailing the Georgian people’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.[18] Russia will likely leverage the Georgian Dream’s increasingly Kremlin-aligned rhetoric and increasingly Russia-friendly foreign policy to expand its influence in Georgia and the broader South Caucasus while showcasing its ability to coerce the foreign policy trajectories of post-Soviet countries. Increasing Kremlin alignment in a post-Soviet country that has long sought Western integration would further cement the long-standing Russian portrayal of its now-sovereign former colonies as vassal states – a framing that seeks to deter both domestic interest in Western cooperation and Western willingness to pursue closer relations with these countries. A victorious Georgian Dream that pursues more Kremlin-friendly policies would also demonstrate a remarkable Kremlin capability to reverse decades of European integration efforts in a country that Russia has attacked and victimized, which would likely embolden Kremlin efforts to pursue hybrid operations and open aggression against Ukraine, Moldova, and other post-Soviet countries.