Poland is now working hand-in-glove with Germany to turbocharge the latter’s superpower trajectory and especially its military component, which is reshaping European geopolitics and is therefore a development of global importance.
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced on Monday after talks with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius that they’re “activating as co-leaders…the armor capability coalition for support of Ukraine” alongside assembling a joint rapid reaction battle group of 5,000 total troops. This coincided with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski proposing on the same day after a meeting with his EU counterparts in Brussels to allocate the interest from seized Russian assets to arming Ukraine.
It was observed by mid-February that “Poland’s Economic Subordination To Germany Follows Its Political & Military Subordination”, and then a month afterwards, “Poland’s Subordination To Germany Now Includes Educational, Judicial, & Diplomatic Dimensions”. The preceding hyperlinked analyses detail the ways in which Poland has comprehensively subordinated itself to Germany after the return to power of Berlin-backed Donald Tusk as Prime Minister, which interested readers should review to learn more.
The combined effect of these developments and the two latest ones is that they position Poland to play an important role in Germany’s “Fortress Europe”, which refers to its plan to lead the EU’s containment of Russia after their proxy war in Ukraine finally ends. This will free up American forces there to “Pivot (back) to Asia” in order to more muscularly contain China as that dimension of the New Cold War predictably heats up in the aftermath of the European one inevitably cooling down with time.
The “military Schengen” that Poland agreed to last month facilitates the dispatch of German troops and equipment to the Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian borders. From there, they can then apply more pressure on Kaliningrad, prepare Belgorod-like cross-border terrorist raids against Belarus like Minsk warned about last year, and potentially launch a conventional military intervention in Ukraine together with France, the UK, and Poland. None of this would be possible without the “military Schengen”.
The German-Polish tank coalition might take time to take shape, but its purpose is to buttress “Fortress Europe” through the abovementioned means, which Warsaw wants to partially finance by allocating the interest from seized Russian assets in order to alleviate the burden upon its own taxpayers. As can be seen, Poland is indispensable to the success of these plans, though few observers have yet to realize its importance and acknowledge just how drastically its role has changed since Tusk’s return to power.
Over the eight years prior to October’s elections, Poland’s previous conservative-nationalist government sought to place their country on the trajectory of restoring its long-lost Great Power status, which caused serious problems in its relations with Germany and Russia. The US supported its efforts because it wanted to exploit Poland as a geopolitical wedge for disrupting German-Russian ties and then safeguarding against any possible rapprochement after they fell apart two years ago.
Tusk’s return to power shifted American strategic calculations since its policymakers then decided to turbocharge the resumption of Germany’s superpower trajectory that became possible after he comprehensively subordinated Poland to it. To paraphrase what Brzezinski famously wrote about Russia and Ukraine, “Without Poland, Germany can never become a superpower, but with Poland suborned and then subordinated, Germany automatically becomes a superpower.”
From the US’ perspective, it’s better to support the rise of a regional superpower that’s under its influence and can then more effectively contain Russia on its behalf than to rely on one Great Power (Germany) and a rival aspiring one (Poland) to that end. Poland’s revival of the Weimar Triangle shortly after agreeing to the “military Schengen” then enabled France to participate in the “Fortress Europe” project and push Germany to more directly involve its military forces in the NATO-Russian proxy war.
At the same time, France is trying to carve out of its own “sphere of influence” in the Balkans via Romania-Moldova following its military deployment to the first two years ago and newly clinched security deal with the second, which serves as a “back door” to Ukraine if Poland gets cold feet. These developments along the broader Greek-Ukrainian corridor, especially Romania’s “Moldovan Highway” that’s being built in emergency mode, complement but also compete with “Fortress Europe”.
On the one hand, it can lead to France retaining its strategic autonomy as Germany continues along its superpower trajectory and facilitating the shared goal of containing Russia, but it can also lead to France subverting and ultimately replacing German influence if Berlin makes a bad move that Paris exploits. It’s worthwhile monitoring the interplay between France’s “sphere of influence” in the Balkans and Germany’s in Poland (and likely soon the Baltics) to see how this dynamic reshapes “Fortress Europe”.
The German-Polish tank coalition, which might be partially financed by allocating the interest from Russia’s seized assets, will help Ukraine replenish some of the armor that it lost during last summer’s failed counteroffensive. Meanwhile, the rapid reaction battle group that’s supposed to be assembled by July, if not earlier, can function as the tip of the spear in any conventional intervention. Taken together, they bolster Germany’s military capability in Poland, which has become its largest modern-day vassal.
France might still beat Germany when it comes to a conventional military intervention in Ukraine seeing as how its troops are already in Romania and Bucharest just approved hosting a NATO rapid deployment force last month, but that still doesn’t take away from everything that Germany is doing in Poland. France’s emerging “sphere of influence” in the Balkans can’t realistically become a continental one but Germany’s “sphere of influence” in Poland easily could so long as Berlin doesn’t bungle it.
It’s for these reasons why Poland’s comprehensive subordination to Germany is an actual game-changer whereas Romania’s partial subordination to France, for as significant as it may be, isn’t comparable in the grand strategic sense. Poland is now working hand-in-glove with Germany to turbocharge the latter’s superpower trajectory and especially its military component, which is reshaping European geopolitics and is therefore a development of global importance.